Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Boomers Turn On, Tune In, Drop Out of U.S. Labor Force

In the two years ended 2013, 80 percent of the decrease in labor force participation was due to retirement, according to calculations by Shigeru Fujita, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. And while the number of discouraged workers rose sharply during and after the recession, the group’s ranks have been roughly unchanged since 2011.


 Graph of Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate - 25 to 54 years

FRED Graph

FRED Graph

DYI Comments:

If Boomer's are leaving the workforce in such mass I would expect the 25 to 54 year old participation rate to have some lift to it.  It appears from the last graph of only one year in length that unemployment is bouncing off the bottom.  This economy [and stock market] is very long in the tooth over the next year or two I would expect a recession. With the Boomer's exiting the work force yearly [around 3.5 million] this should mitigate any upcoming recession.

 

As boomers exit work force, who will take over?


Knell Lee, 24, is a math and actuarial science graduate of the University of Minnesota who was hired as a policy auditor at SFM Mutual Insurance early this year. 
He joined the ranks of thousands of Minnesotans who have started or returned to work this year as the state’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.6 percent and the state recovered all the jobs lost during the Great Recession. 
The 78 million baby boomers born in the United States between 1946 and 1964 dwarf Generation X, born 1965-1981, and Generation Y, the 18- to 30- year-old crowd.

DYI Comments: Within six years from now almost [close enough] half of the Boomer's will be out of the work force this will create the roaring 20's that will be marked by high taxes, high inflation, and a LABOR SHORTAGE.  The high taxes and high inflation will be due to the cost of  Medicare & Social Security.  The labor shortage will happen for the Boomer's will continue to consume products and services [at a lesser rate] but do to their massive size creating an employment boom.  Once the 2030's arrive Boomer's will begin to pass away in large numbers that will reduce inflation and ending the labor shortage.

DYI  
  

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