Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Dow to Gold Ratio "Returns to the Mean" now above the midpoint (green line) Future Returns have Increased. An Excellent Opportunity to Dollar Cost Average into your Favorite Precious Metals Fund!


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DYI Comments:  I have moved my sentiment indicator down one notch from optimism to relief "market returns to mean."

Market Sentiment

Smart Money buys aggressively!
Capitulation
Despondency--Short Term Bonds
Max-Pessimism *Market Bottoms*MMF
Depression
Hope
Relief *Market returns to Mean* Gold

Smart Money buys the Dips!
Optimism
Media Attention
Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!
Thrill
Greed
Delusional---Long Term Bonds
Max-Optimism *Market Tops*--REIT's
Denial of Problem--U.S. Stocks
Anxiety
Fear
Desperation

Smart Money Buys Aggressively!
Capitulation

Gold mining companies have been wonderfully beaten up far greater than the actual metal.  I would not recommend lump sums; dollar cost averaging unless gold drops, mining company shares drop and/or stocks fly pushing the indicator above the 1929 line of 18.4 then lump sum investing will be far safer.

DYI's sentiment indicator has moved however my model portfolio remains the same.

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION -  4/1/15

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 60%
85% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
15% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VGPMX
 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
 0%-REIT's- REIT Index Fund - VGSLX
[See Disclaimer] 

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