The United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague has announced that on July 12 it will issue its long-awaited ruling on a case brought by the Philippines against China on the merits of China's claims to the entire South China Sea. The case is brought under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which China claims does not apply to them.
China has said it will ignore any ruling of the tribunal. It's saying that because it knows it will lose. Indeed, a BBC investigation of some of China's evidence has been shown to be delusional, and possibly a complete fabrication.
Some analysts are pointing out that occupying the South China Sea is an existential need for China and for its neighbors. China, Vietnam and the Philippines have high population densities and comparatively low amounts of arable land, further magnifying the importance of food sources outside traditional crops. Food security is an existential threat to all of these countries. For China, taking control of all the fish stocks in the South China Sea is seen as a necessity, and so China sees the need to control access to the South China Sea by other nations.
So all the talk about being "peace-loving" is really irrelevant. China will go to war if that's the only way to prevent Vietnam and the Philippines from fishing in the South China Sea. Out of desperation, Vietnam and the Philippines will see China's military actions as an existential threat, and an attempt to starve their own people. The July 12 ruling will raise anxieties on all sides, and move the region closer to war.
China’s island building is aimed at securing a weak link in its maritime trade networks.
After two decades of rapid industrialization and economic growth, China has emerged as the world’s largest trading nation, registering a combined volume of over $4.3 trillion dollars in 2015. Chinese outward foreign investment has soared from a trickle ten years ago to nearly $120 billion in 2015. China has become the largest trading partner in Africa, with trade passing $160 billion in 2015. China ranks as the second largest trading partner to Europe, with trade standing near $580 billion annually. Meanwhile, China has also made significant headway in trade and investment into the Middle East and South Asia.
In order to consolidate and link its massive and continually expanding commercial empire, China has promoted the strategy of “One Belt, One Road,” a resurrection of the ancient Silk Road. If it succeeds, this project will fundamentally shift the global balance of power in China’s favor, substantially building an infrastructure of trade throughout Eurasia and Africa with all roads ultimately leading to China.
With current projected spending surpassing $1.3 trillion, the new Silk Road will link over 60 nations throughout Eurasia and Africa with a combined population of 4.4 billion through a colossal number of infrastructure projects from rail and pipelines to ports and maritime infrastructure. China’s brimming ambition seeks to facilitate the development of cohesive infrastructure linking three continents and uniting them into a trade empire unrivaled in history.
China’s One Belt, One Road project is composed of two primary routes. One is a land route that winds through the great Eurasian hinterland linking China with its ancient trading partners in Central Asia and the Middle East and then on to Europe. The other route is the maritime route, which runs through the South China Sea and the Malacca Straits, and onward through the Indian Ocean to Africa and to the Middle East and Europe.
To put it simply, China’s obsession with building up fortifications in the South China Sea is driven by its fear of losing control over its vital trade routes and thus having its national interests effectively denied by use of naval force. As China moves forward with its ambitious Silk Road project, its sense of urgency has kept pace to make sure it will have the naval infrastructure to protect its commercial interests from the South China Sea to Djibouti, where China has established its first overseas military base.
DYI Comments: The drum beats for a resource driven war. Not just in the south China Sea, Russia as well as the alliance moves after those resources. So far most of this has been rhetoric.
As China builds up her navy to a level in their favor things could get very serious. That is 10 years off or more before China's navy is at that point and could be postponed even longer when her economy goes into deflationary depression caused by an excessive debt build up.
DYI
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