Dividend Yield Investor!

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Insane

Level of Margin Debt!

Insane

Valuations!

Sub Atomically

Low Yields!

DYI: Simply put future returns will be sub par until valuations improve. We are caught in a valuation trap that requires great patience waiting until sales, earnings, and dividends to catch up to stock prices [and for interest rates to rise] or for a substantial decline in stock prices. DYI has been stating that I expect a 60% to 75% decline in equity prices is the highest probability absent a decline a long drawn out sideways market for a decade plus for an improvement in valuation. My model portfolio reflects insane valuations for stocks and long term bonds.

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 6/1/18

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

66% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

29% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VGPMX

5% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

DYI

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Quotes

Social Security operates on a simple principal: "You give your money to politicians and they squander it on something else!"

Harry Browne

Fail-Safe Investing

"The only way to "Beat an Index" is to invest in a different and significantly greater - undervalued index."

The Dividend Yield Investor

"Men, it has been said, think in herds; it will be seen they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

Charles Mackay

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

"Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook."

Benjamin Graham

The Intelligent Investor

Estimated 10yr return on Stocks

Using 5.4% as the historical growth rate of dividends and 4.0% as the ending yield.

Starting Yield*---------return**
1.0%-----------------------(-5.7%)
1.5%-----------------------(-1.7%)
2.0%------------------------1.3%
2.5%------------------------3.8%

3.0%------------------------5.9%
3.5%------------------------7.8%
4.0%------------------------9.4%
4.5%-----------------------10.9%

5.0%-----------------------12.3%
5.5%-----------------------13.6%
6.0%-----------------------14.8%
6.5%-----------------------15.9%

7.0%-----------------------17.0%
7.5%-----------------------18.0%
8.0%-----------------------19.0%

*Starting dividend yield of the S&P500-**10yr estimated average annual rate of return.

DISCLAIMER!

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor,broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.