Saturday, November 23, 2019

Coming to
America Soon??
Selling such bonds – a hot topic after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda commented on the idea this month – would allow the government to lock in cheap long-term funding and give yield-starved investors higher returns. 
It could also offer the BOJ a new tool for its “yield-curve control” (YCC) policy by helping prevent excessive declines in super-long bond yields, which hurt returns of pension funds. 
Adding 50-year bonds could drain liquidity from markets of other super-long bonds, making yields vulnerable to wild swings, MOF officials say. It is also unclear whether 50-year bonds would be traded much, as investors could suffer huge losses if yields spike. 
Long bonds have drawn global attention as countries try to use super-low rates to lock in debt. Some European countries have sold 100-year bonds, a move Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the United States could also consider.
DYI: 

Sub atomic low interest rates with massive budget deficits as far as one can see it is highly likely the Federal government will follow Europe using ultra long term financing locking in these low rates.  Of course there will come a time [if these bonds come to fruition] they will be the flip side of the past 40 years and become the short of a lifetime as interest rates begin their northern journey.  For investors as oppose to speculators long term bonds [10 years or longer] have played out the huge bulk of their bull market that began in 1981.

Image result for 10 year treasury yield history chart pictures
Yield as of 11/22/19
2.22%
DYI’s model portfolio remains heavily in precious metals and short term bills/notes.  
Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 11/1/19

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
51% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
49% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
My market sentiment scale has not changed since March 28, 2017 when I changed Lt. Bonds from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem and Gold from Relief to Hope.    


Market Sentiment

Smart Money buys aggressively!
Capitulation
Despondency
Max-Pessimism *Market Bottoms* Short Term Bonds
Depression MMF

Hope Gold
Relief *Market returns to Mean*

Smart Money buys the Dips!
Optimism
Media Attention
Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!
Thrill
Greed
Delusional
Max-Optimism *Market Tops* U.S. Stocks
Denial of Problem Long Term Bonds
Anxiety
Fear
Desperation

Smart Money Buys Aggressively!
Capitulation
Amazing how in my lifetime interest rates have now [or at least very close] gone full circle.  I’m 65 years old and easily remembering when rates were low and then raised all through the late 60’s, 70’s, and then peaked in 1981. Rates began their southern journey to where we are now [full circle].
DYI

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