Monday, February 6, 2023

 

The Ever Widening War

Paul Craig Roberts

When asked about Russia’s response to the US sending to Ukraine weapons with a 93 mile range, Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia will establish its position 93 miles further into Ukraine in order to protect the liberated areas.  So if Ukraine then succeeds in getting 190 mile range MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles from the US, Russia will have to go another 190 miles into Ukraine.  

What this tells me is that the Kremlin is still thinking of the conflict as a limited military operation and has not reached the point of thinking of it as a war that needs to be quickly won.  In other words, the slow slog will continue, thereby guaranteeing more US/NATO involvement.  The Kremlin still hasn’t understood that the more and the longer the West is involved, the less the possibility of the West accepting a Russian victory.  The inability of the Kremlin to understand the urgent necessity of quickly bringing the war to a victorious conclusion is leading to a direct conflict between Russia and the West.

DYI:  This is one of those times that I will have to disagree with Roberts.  In my judgement in the beginning the Russians were only capable from a manpower - equipment for limited operations.  That is no longer the situation as Russia is pouring massive amounts of men and equipment to the battle space by the day.  Plus making sure they have all of the support troops needed for an increased military pace.  Russia's first and primary objective is obvious, it is the complete destruction of the Ukrainian military!  Hence the slow slog.  For every one Russian killed eight Ukrainians parish.  This lopsided attrition will only widen as first line Ukrainian soldiers are either dead or wounded so severely they are unable to return in any capacity.  As time presses into 2023 there will be an increased Russian military tempo as the Ukrainian Army is systematically destroyed any territory gains will be by default.

When the Ukrainian Army goes into complete collapse only then will you see a slow motion blitzkrieg.  Their highest priority will be Odessa including the entire southern region closing off Ukraine to the Black Sea and Azov sea.  After that how Russia will divide up the Ukraine at this moment is anyone's guess.  I will tell you this the American's - British will not have a damn thing to say about the outcome.

DYI           

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