U.S. Stock Market

177% Above Trend Line

Massive Overvaluation

Returns From Here Will Be Subdued

 OR

Outright Losses Before Fee’s and Inflation

DYI:  Today’s U.S. stock market by whatever method for determining valuations is screaming that equities are poised for sub returns at best and worst outright losses before fee’s and inflation.  Monies invested today or stocks held today in a S&P 500 index fund or a generalized all stock growth fund that is found so prevalent in 401k’s – go to sleep like Rip Van Winkle waking 10 years in the future will have very subdued (less than 2%) or outright losses.

Dollar cost averaging is nothing more than very small monthly lump sum purchases.  Those dollars invested will reduce your overall return since valuations being at nose bleed levels.

Currently today IMO this is a terrible time to be buying stocks for the long term investors even if they are youngsters in their 20’s with many decades ahead.  Best to earn as much as possible in cash or short term bonds waiting for the next opportunity to purchase stocks at far more reasonable valuation levels.

DYI