Tuesday, January 14, 2025

When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. 

As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. The wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. When this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit.

In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. Our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture.

More than likely we'll embark upon a two decade long roller coaster bear market similar to 1966 to 1982 (17 years) marked by declining stock prices and high inflation.  This will also beat up bonds spouting ever higher interest rates and real estate whether residential or commercial prices will decline nominally and obviously under perform inflation.  This will significantly reduce the net worth of the top 50% (except the 1%) and many heavily leveraged players will be wiped out.  The bottom 50% will not feel too much pain as they have so little to lose (lack of stocks, bonds, RE) but will feel pain due to the overall inflation.

When??  It has already begun as bonds ended their massive bull market from 1981 to 2020 tearing into the flesh of long term bond buyers as measured by the 10 year Treasury bond that bottomed at 0.52% on August of 2020 (peaked 9-3-81 at 15.84%) currently today at 4.79%!  From absolute peak for price to interest 1 ÷ .52 = 192 (rounded) with todays price to interest 1 ÷ 4.79 = 21 So...(192 - 21) ÷ 192 x 100 = 89% DECLINE!

If the so called elites try to patch up this decline by attempting to force interest rates lower will only stoke the inflationary flames hotter with bond buyers demanding higher yields to protect their future buying power!

So...The elites whether they know it or not are on top of the mountain and no matter which way they will go it is the race to the bottom!  Politics will get even nastier along with pockets of civil unrest that is already happening as gangs of looters (inner cities) break into stores stealing and leaving before the police arrive!     



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