Updated Sentiment Indicators moved Silver and Gold!

 

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!

Capitulation

Despondency

Max-Pessimism 

Depression 

Hope -  F

Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!

Optimism - Swiss Treasury Securities and Silver 

Media Attention 

Enthusiasm - Gold

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!

Thrill

Greed

Delusional

Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks 

Denial of Problem   -BitCoin 

Anxiety 

Fear

Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate

Recession - Shallow

Deflation - None

Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices

None

Shallow

Moderate

Prominent

Extreme 

January 20, 2026 Gold from Media Attention to Enthusiasm 

January 20, 2026  Silver from Hope to Optimism

December 22, 2025...Stated Long Term Investment Grade Corporate bonds will outperform stocks (Total Market Index) over the next ten years.  Vanguard ETF symbol VCLT (bonds) at 5.68% and Vanguard VTI (Total Market) dividend yield at 1.09%.  Interest is 421% greater than dividend yield.

December 29, 2025 Changed Bit Coin from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem 

July 10, 2025 Added Swiss Treasury Securities 

May 24. 2025 Gold from Optimism to Media Attention

May 12, 2025 Added BitCoin at Max Optimism

November 4, 2024  Stocks from Denial of Problem to Max Optimism 

July 9, 2024 Added New Oil Indicator 

June 29, 2024  Dropped Oil Indicator

May 27, 2024  Added Current Economic Conditions 

January 20, 2024  Added residential real estate 

September 21, 2023  Long Term Bonds from Fear to Desperation 

October 27, 2022  Long Term Bonds from Anxiety to Fear

October 27, 2022  Short Term Bonds & MMF from Hope to Relief

October 1, 2022 Short Term Bonds & MMF from Depression to Hope

October 1, 2022 Bonds from Denial of Problem to Anxiety

October 1, 2022 Stocks from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem

September 2, 2022  Lt. Bonds from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem

March 15, 2021 Stocks from Denial of Problem to Max-Optimism

August 3, 2020 Gold from Mean to Optimism
August 3, 2020 Split Silver to Hope to accurately display Gold/Silver Ratio

March 3, 2020 Money Market funds from Depression to Max-Pessimism
March 3, 2020 Gold from Hope to Relief

March 3, 2020 Lt. Bonds from Denial of Problem to Max-Optimism
March 3, 2020 Stocks from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem

March 28, 2017 Lt. Bonds From Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem

March 28, 2017 Gold From Relief to Hope

March 12, 2017  U.S. Stocks From Denial of Problem to Max-Optimism

July 5, 2015 - Lt. Term Bonds - From Delusional to Max-Optimism

July 5, 2015 - St. Term Bonds - From Despondency to Max-Pessimism

July 5, 2015 - MMF - From Max-Pessimism to Depression

April 8, 2015 - Gold - From Optimism to Relief

Nov. 4, 2014 - Gold - From Media Attention to Optimism

Sept. 10, 2012 - Stocks - From Anxiety to Denial of Problem

June 4, 2012 - Long Bonds - From Thrill to Delusional

May 18, 2012 - REIT's - From Delusional to Max-Optimism (no longer followed; sorry)

May 9, 2012 - Long Bonds - From Thrill to Greed

March 7, 2012 - Cash [MMF] - Despondency to Max-Pessimism

March 7, 2012 - Short Bonds - Capitulation to Despondency

Wolf Street

After the Dotcom bubble, which began to implode in March 2000, the S&P 500 spent 13 years in stock-market hell on a rollercoaster to nowhere with two 50%-crashes in between. But money-printing starting in 2009 fixed that. In May 2013, the S&P 500 surpassed its March 2000 high in a sustained manner. Today, it’s up by 351% from the March 2000 high.

DYI Comment:

Will 2026 be the beginning of total stock market returns less than total market returns for long term investment grade corporate bonds?  

As chief cook and bottle washer of this blog IMO it is an odds on favorite that over the next ten years Lt. investment grade corporate bonds will out perform the S&P 500.  Plus it will have the added benefit of keeping one's money intact while waiting for stock market valuations to improve when once again stocks outperforming bonds.

WHY??

Simply put the S&P 500 dividend yield is a scant 1.14% as compared to VCLT - Long term investment grade corporate bonds yielding at 5.65%.  Again IMO this is very advantageous for those who are dollar cost averaging into a yield that is 396% greater.  Also the Shiller PE for the S&P 500 is at 40 times earnings that by any measure is nose bleed heights thus downside is far, far greater than any remaining PE expansion.

Even if 2026 ends up being a stellar year for stocks unless bond yields collapse the dollar cost averaging will eventually out compound stocks since the higher price will reduce even more the tiny dividend yield.    

    

 

DYI's

Individual State Mandatory Savings Plan

DYI’s State Wide Mandatory Retirement Savings Plan Idea.

A 5% tax collected against income by your State (what ever State you are from) invested in individual accounts.  Monies upon receipt will be invested into the account as follows:

25% Short term bond index fund  

25% Long term Treasury bond index fund

25% Physical Gold – held by the individual State

25% Total Market Stock Index Fund

Account will automatically rebalance back to equal 25% per asset category when one asset category is 50% or greater.  The cost to run the account will never exceed 0.03%.

Participant may elect voluntarily to increase tax contribution percentage up to 10%.

Money deposited into participants account reduces gross income for the individual State of residence.

Participant is individually responsible for any Federal Taxes accrued.  Account will notify participant yearly for any qualified interest, dividends or capital gains (long or short term).

Participants at age 65 4% per year withdraw requirement – calculated last trading day in December for the next year, paid monthly to owner.

Withdraws upon retirement for State income tax is considered normal income.

In case of disability before retirement age of owner – stated by two physicians – account will go into retirement mode as stated previously.

Upon death of owner any monies left in account is transferred to the beneficiary as stated in plan documents.

DYI Opinion: When the bubble pops expect a multi-year, multi-cycle collapse of 65% to 80%!

 

Ben Graham wrote: 

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

I expect we’ll see market losses, both in the S&P 500 and in the technology sector, on the order of -50% to -70% over the completion of this cycle.

John P. Hussman

We’ve seen the future. Again and again. Market valuations have reached similar extremes twice before in the U.S. financial markets – in 2000 and 1929 – along with lesser extremes in 2007 and 1972, and sector-specific extremes like the “-onics -tronics” boom ending in 1970. These, joined by numerous speculative episodes across other countries and other markets tell us how the bubble will end.

The defining feature of every bubble is the same: a growing inconsistency between the long-term returns that investors expect in their heads – based on extrapolation of the past, and the long-term returns that properly relate prices to likely future cash flows – based on valuations. Every bubble smuggles the same tragic past into the same tragic future by packaging it with new wrinkles that convince investors that “this time is different.” Ultimately, they still end the same way.

We presently observe this dynamic in the form of record price/revenue multiples for technology companies with progressively slowing growth rates, including AAPL, which sports a price/revenue multiple of nearly 10 – about three times its 2010-2020 norm – despite 3-year revenue growth of just 2% annually. One has to lean very hard into the idea of ever-rising profit margins in order to make the cash flow arithmetic work. We see the same dynamic writ large across valuations in the S&P 500 information technology sector. This is another way that a bubble manipulates time, and it’s a red flag.

On the topic of “passive investing,” I fully agree with the idea that investors are presently insensitive to valuations, and that this insensitivity has an impact on stock prices. My main disagreement with the “money flow” argument is that, in my view, the resulting bubble is a reflection of fragile and temporary speculative psychology rather than a robust and “mechanical” flow-based dynamic.

In my view, there’s nothing mechanical about this bubble apart from extrapolative speculative psychology. That psychology can shift in very short order. If history offers any lesson, it’s that a market collapse is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that’s not priced to tolerate risk. 

John P. Hussman

 

WHY IS HEALTHCARE & HEALTH INSURANCE SO EXPENSIVE??

Since the late 1960's these corporate entities have been in violation of the Clayton Act, Robinson-Patman Act and the Sherman Anti-Trust Act.  Ask yourself does this sound correct when dealing with all levels of health care?

  The Clayton Antitrust Act of 1914 is a key U.S. law strengthening antitrust rules by prohibiting specific anti-competitive practices like price discrimination, anti-competitive mergers, and exclusive dealing, supplementing the earlier Sherman Act to protect market competition, notably exempting labor unions and allowing them to strike/boycott. It targeted practices that hurt small businesses and consumers by making monopolies powerful, outlawing activities that substantially lessen competition, and allowing private lawsuits for treble damages.

Today Doctors do not work for themselves as they are now corporatized into what I call the machine and these entities are rapidly engaging in buyouts and mergers further eliminating any remaining competition.  These illegal practices have become so normalized they've become institutionalized.  Obama Care was/is in place to continue the cost raping for medical consumers. [The Affordable Care Act was written by Medical lobbyist.]

The Medical Industrial Complex is in the terminal phase as it grinds down and unfortunately takes the U.S. economy with it as cost continue to sky rocket.

Why haven't District Attorneys using those 3 Acts to press charges against these organizations.  Simple follow the money campaign contributions is greater than the Military Industrial Complex.

Due to this massive government spending on healthcare (and military spending) the national debt will continue to expand forcing the Federal Reserve to purchase more and more Treasury securities to contain or slow increasing interest rates.  Of course this is money printing left on the Fed's balance longer and longer resulting in - you guessed it - INFLATION.  At this current juncture expect inflation to average around 4%+ range.                  

Clown Zelensky Lands In Dublin For A Snortfest He'll be right at home among the Irish establishment who love powdering their noses Gemma O’Doherty Dec 2 2025   READ IN APP   Cokehead creature, porn star and Jewish actor arrives in Dublin Crisis actor Zelensky is in town so they’re capable of pulling a stunt for the vegetables. Psyop incoming no doubt. How do grown men still take these coked-up morons seriously? Can’t they see they’re bought-off circus acts playing roles and reading scripts in the phony theatre of world politics? Anyone still telling you politics is real and elections make a difference is lying to you. You’re wasting your time listening to these fools, spending hours of your life being led down a garden path to nowhere. ‘World leaders’ are nothing more than actors, the worst Z-list actors Hollyweird has ever produced. It is all a stage. The media presents the fakery to you pretending it’s real but you’re watching a bad movie. Anyone who calls themselves awake but still uses terms like ‘the government’ suggesting that they are running the show is either lying to themselves or trying to fool you.  There is NO GOVERNMENT.  There are acting troupes.  We are being run by external forces who pull their strings and tell them what to do and say.  Anyone who thinks any politician has any power or say in how things run needs to go back to ‘truther school.’ I don’t know how we’re going to get it into people’s heads that it’s all a charade. Maybe there’s no hope of wakening them. But we have to keep trying because there is a shift in consciousness and we know the masses are increasingly filled with contempt for vile puppeticians and their sordid ways. And while we’re on the subject of Ukraine, Putin is a Jew-owned clown as well. Anyone who has observed the shameless Ukrainians who have flooded Ireland since the fake war knows they go back and forth to their home for teeth whitening, upgraded jeeps and clubbing weekends. So there is no war. There is media fakery and fireworks. It’s a money laundering operation run by Jewish bankers, just like Gaza.

 

Death Rates Collapsed 

Before Vaccines Arrived!

Thanks to better sanitation and rising living standards, death rates for virtually every major disease of the 20th century—measles, diphtheria, pertussis, tuberculosis, scarlet fever, and more—had already fallen by 90–100% before their respective vaccines were introduced.

 Some of these diseases never had a vaccine at all.

In other words, vaccines can’t take credit for improvements that already happened.

Measles

U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, Vital Statistics Rates in the United States, 1940–1960 (1968)

Diphtheria

U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, Vital Statistics Rates in the United States, 1940–1960 (1968)

---

Pertussis (whooping cough)

DissolvingIllusions.com, United States Pertussis Death Rates 1900–1967 (2012)

---

Tuberculosis

U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, Vital Statistics Rates in the United States, 1940–1960 (1968)

Scarlet fever

U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, Vital Statistics Rates in the United States, 1940–1960 (1968)

The same pattern appears wherever we have data—not just in the U.S., but also in England and Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Spain, France, Belgium, Sweden, Norway, Australia, and New Zealand.

The idea that vaccines “saved millions of lives” in the U.S. falls apart once you look at the actual death counts. The table below shows deaths in the year before each vaccine was licensed. Numbers were already small and trending lower. There simply weren’t millions of lives left to save.

Aaron Siri, Vaccines, Amen (2025)

Moving the goalposts

Faced with the reality that vaccines don’t live up to the hype, vaccine zealots will move the goalposts.

Okay, fine—death rates were already dropping before vaccines… but look at the number of cases!

Don’t let incidence numbers fool you

Given that vaccines were clearly not responsible for the massive declines in mortality, defenders pivot to case counts or morbidity as evidence of vaccine success. Yet historical case reporting was inconsistent at best. Deaths, by contrast, are concrete events, legally recorded, and therefore far more reliable.

But even if we take incidence numbers at face value, the metric becomes largely meaningless once mortality has already collapsed. By the 1960s, measles deaths had fallen by 99% without a vaccine, and severe polio cases were rare long before mass vaccination.

The diagnostic shell game

Disease definitions often change after a vaccine’s introduction, creating the illusion that the vaccine eliminated the disease—when in reality, only the diagnostic criteria shifted.

Consider polio. Before the vaccine, temporary muscle weakness sufficed for a polio diagnosis. After the introduction of the vaccine in 1955, only cases with paralysis lasting 60+ days counted. Those cases that would have previously been called polio got relabeled as viral meningitis, transverse myelitis, Guillain-Barré, and more.

Conclusion

Death rates for virtually every major disease fell nearly 100% before their respective vaccines existed. Vaccines didn’t cause the decline—they arrived after it had already happened and then claimed the credit.

Proponents try to distract from this reality by pointing to falling case counts as proof vaccines “worked”, but these drops usually reflect narrower diagnostic criteria, not a genuine reduction in illness. Once a vaccine exists, doctors are far less likely to diagnose a vaccinated patient with the very disease the shot was meant to prevent, so they typically call it something else.

Bottom line: 

Death rates fell before the shots even existed. 

The rest is marketing.

California Mall Mass Shooting Hoax So The Sheep Will Shop Online

Just like all the fake air crashes we've been subjected to this year.  Message = stay home!  They want you in your 15-minute zone where they can control you.  A lot more of the same in 2026 alas...

Gemma O’Doherty  ←Click for video

Dec 05, 2025