Long Term Bonds

Bear Market Continues!

The bond buying opportunity of a lifetime with the 10 year Treasury bond interest rate peaking at 15.84% on 9-30-1981 and then declining to 0.52% on 8-4-2020.  This bull market lasted for 38 years, 10 months, and 5 days (or 14,188 days).

What to expect??  

As chief cook and bottle washer for this blog IMO we’ll experience over the coming years and very possibly the coming next two decades is ever rising interest rates all made possible by the inflation genie let out of the bottle.  These changes in rates will move through the economic cycles with rising rates during growth years and during recession rates declining at higher lows.  

Expectation:

Higher highs and higher lows.

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!

Capitulation

Despondency

Max-Pessimism 

Depression 

Hope -  F

Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!

Optimism - Swiss Treasury Securities and Silver 

Media Attention 

Enthusiasm - Gold

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!

Thrill

Greed

Delusional

Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks 

Denial of Problem   -BitCoin 

Anxiety 

Fear

Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate

Recession - Shallow

Deflation - None

Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices

None

Shallow

Moderate

Prominent

Extreme