Valuation:

U.S. Stock Market and U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds.

3-28-2026

S&P 500 dividend yield (VOO) is a tiny 1.09% as compared to U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (VCLT) at 5.83% or simply put (5.83 - 1.09) ÷ 1.09 x 100 = 435% (rounded) greater than S&P 500 stock index.

What has happened the S&P 500 due to share prices racing ahead faster than dividend increases for purchases today the yield has declined as compared to the last bottom March of 2009 at 3.60%.

Intrinsic Value:  Will my investment make me money if I could no longer sell to another investor?  Intrinsic is interest, dividends, rents and royalties.

Margin of Safety:  In order to not endure a loss or sub par return within a normalized time frame for us mortals we need at a minimum for the S&P 500 dividend yield to be 50% of what can be achieved with bonds.  That yield needs to be at least 2.9% that cannot be found in any index fund.  Not even for my favorite NOBL (dividend aristocrats) comes up short at 2.05%.

At 50% or greater dividend growth (5.4% average annual increase since 1871) dividend compounding without any change in price (pretending the market is closed) will over come bonds within a few years.

Today market participants believe they are investors when actually they've become SPECULATORS. 

IMO long term investment grade bonds over the next 10 years will outperform stocks. 

Please note:  This investment race could very well be won by bonds loosing less money after inflation as compared to stocks.  In the end its purchasing power for all of the things we need to buy for life's needs and along the way a few wants for the spice of life.