Bubble
Chart
During any major turning point will take years before its
multi-year decline takes place. This
U.S. stock market is no exception as the bubble phase began in 2018 (that’s not
a typo)! All of us old timers (I’m 71
years old) have been crying out that valuations are elevated into bubble land
only to arrive into the land of insanity.
At major turning points valuation driven market players all
seem completely out of step with the new era.
The late legendary investor John Templeton sold all of his high tech
stocks in 1996 only to watch the NASDAQ double from that point providing gasoline
to the fire for the new era crowd (market peaked in year 2000)!
It took the Nasdaq Composite 15 years to fully recover from
the dot-com bubble crash. After peaking near 5,048 in March 2000, the
tech-heavy index plunged roughly 78% and did not reclaim its previous all-time
high until April 23, 2015.
Today valuations are screaming that stocks are no bargain but the crowd will hear none of that talk. Something financially or economically will happen with first a trickle of sellers seeking buyers then later after stocks have declined the crowd will begin their multi-year selling. When this will begin? I don’t know. Calling tops is infinitely harder than calling market bottoms.
Updated Monthly
AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 6/1/26
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