U.S.

Stocks

The New Paradigm?

DYI:  Using Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF symbol VOO as a proxy for the U.S. stock market its dividend yield (as of 6-12-2026) is a scant 1.00%!  I’ve been pounding the table stock certificates are NOT gambling slips!  The S&P 500 Shiller PE remains in the plus 40 range (41.43) only outdone by the 2000 top!

Bonds V.S. Stocks: 

Compared to Vanguard’s Investment Grade Long Term Corporate Bond ETF symbol VCLT current yield 5.91%!  The yield difference is now (5.91 – 1.00) ÷ 1 x 100 = 491% in favor of bonds.  No doubt there will be fluctuation in bond prices; however the compounding is now so much more in favor of bonds IMO there will begin a percentage asset allocation increase for bonds by market participants. 

Simply put compounding of interest from bonds now has a high probability of outperforming the S&P 500 over the next ten years.

Below is the reality you’re up against for stocks based on dividends.      

Estimated 10yr return on Stocks

Using 5.4% as the historical growth rate of dividends and 4.0% as the ending yield.

Starting Yield*---------return**
1.0%-----------------------(-5.7%)
1.5%-----------------------(-1.7%)
2.0%------------------------1.3%
2.5%------------------------3.8%

3.0%------------------------5.9%
3.5%------------------------7.8%
4.0%------------------------9.4%
4.5%-----------------------10.9%

5.0%-----------------------12.3%
5.5%-----------------------13.6%
6.0%-----------------------14.8%
6.5%-----------------------15.9%

7.0%-----------------------17.0%
7.5%-----------------------18.0%
8.0%-----------------------19.0%

*Starting dividend yield of the S&P500-

**10yr estimated average annual rate of return.