Insanity

Student Loan Debt Is Now As Big as the U.S. Junk Market

U.S. student loan debt now equals the size of the $1.3 trillion U.S. high-yield corporate bond market, presenting investors with a whole different range of risks.

DYI

Medical Industrial Complex

Tyranny Reigns Supreme!

Why Is An Appendectomy In The United States 10 Times More Expensive Than An Appendectomy In Mexico?

This is what can happen when you go to a socialized healthcare system.  A lot of people out there believe that the United States has a free market healthcare system, but that is actually not true.  The percentage of the population that receives government-subsidized healthcare is rapidly approaching 50 percent, and the healthcare industry may be the most heavily regulated sector of the entire U.S. economy.  

Every year the rules, red tape and regulations seem to get even worse, and every year health insurance premiums rise much faster than the overall rate of inflation.  If we don’t start applying free market principles and start getting healthcare costs under control, our entire healthcare system could very easily implode.

This is yet another example that shows that Obamacare has got to go and that we need to get government out of the healthcare business. 

We once had the greatest healthcare system in the history of the world, and we can do it again if we will just return to free market principles.  Elections really matter, and we simply cannot allow the Democrats and the establishment Republicans to take us even further down the road of socialized medicine.

 DYI:

Michael Snyder of Economic Collapse blog misses one gigantic problem with U.S. healthcare prices.  They’ve been exploding way before Obama Care was put into place.

No doubt Obama Care has made matters worse and needs to be repealed along with removal of subsidies as Michael indicated in his article.  The big miss is this industry has been for decades colluding in order to price fix and now has moved from local to forming regional MONOPOLIES.  Prices have sky rocketed.  What needs to be done does not require Congressional action as two of these three laws have been on the books for over 100 years – Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890…ClaytonAct of 1914…Robinson Patman Act of 1936 all designed to take on the robber barons during the Gilded Age. 

Donald Trump put out a tweet stating these health care companies – and imply the rest of corporate America as well – will comply with these three acts IMMEDIATELY or prosecutions will commence within a fortnight.  This would be the tweet that was heard around the world.  After two weeks (fortnight) those who believe this to be only political theater – especially among the worst offenders who are the easiest to prosecute – high profile arrests need to occur and prosecuted.  

The Medical Industrial Complex would get the message…War has been declared that monopolies along with their price fixing days are finished.  Competition will reign supreme.  This would be one hell of fight but if maintained costs would drop by 75% - that’s not a typo – 75%!  Add on in the pharmaceutical industry the repeal to allow reimportation of ethical drugs those costs would plummet by 50% to 85% depending on the newness of the drug.

This would cause a short term – about 2 year in length nasty depression – that’s right depression.  Currently health care consumes 20% of our economy these policies would drop costs back to around 5%.  This would result in a major contraction of the economy as dollars would plunge precipitously from health care with a two year lag as those monies are redirected into other industries.  Once this movement of dollars began growth in the generalized economy would be far more robust.  Start busting up the banks along with doing away with the Federal Reserve – a blogger is allowed to dream – economic growth would sizzle at the 4% to 5% real growth rate.  But alas it appears Trump has no stomach for such a fight for if he did he would have enforced these acts immediately having the downturn well behind him going into reelection.

The status quo is reigning supreme over the Medical Industrial Complex.  If Trump seeks reelection this industry will consume 25% to 27% of the economy dragging growth slower and slower as health care costs and associated insurance premiums continue their meteor price increases, with or without Obama Care.  So far I see absolutely no traction any where – private or government – for real free enterprise solutions.  More over the top cronyism.  Sorry to be so negative…It is what it is! 

  DYI

Bubble

News

SOCGEN: The good times are coming to an end in 2018

By stopping their bond-buying programs, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve would leave credit, including the market for government bonds, more vulnerable to market movements, according to SocGen. 

Global credit already looks overvalued, the strategists said. Sustained demand for riskier corporate bonds has reduced the spread between their yields and comparable government bonds to the lowest levels in three years.

"We believe the US and the eurozone are heading for an economic slowdown in 2019," they said, "and given the rising levels of corporate leverage, this should have an impact on credit." 

War

Drums 

In "Largest-Ever" Military Drill, US Orders 16,000 Troops, 230 Jets To Simulate War With North Korea

The statement came after Yonhap News reported that six U.S. Raptor stealth fighters planes arrived in South Korea on Saturday for a joint air drill named "Vigilant Ace 18" scheduled for Dec. 4 to 8. The F-22s flew into South Korea together in a show of force. The stealth fighters, however, were just a small part of the upcoming show of force: according to local media, some 230 aircraft and up to 16,000 soldiers and airmen are taking part in the drill, which is one of the biggest ever of its kind.

In reality, it will likely provoke North Korea into yet another ICBM launch.  To be sure, while the Kim regime traditionally rages over the drills on its border, claiming they are rehearsals for invasion, although it may well be right: US forces have been flooding into the Pacific this year with warships, warplanes, missiles and the army all on standby.

Little Rocket Man’s Risky Game

 The rage of the president and bluster of Haley reflect a painful reality: As inhumane and ruthless as the 33-year-old dictator of North Korea is, he is playing the highest stakes poker game on the planet, against the world’s superpower, and playing it remarkably well.

While a Korean War II might well end with annihilation of the North’s army and Kim’s regime, it would almost surely result in untold thousands of dead South Koreans and Americans. 

And Kim knows that the more American lives he can put at risk, with nuclear-tipped missiles, the less likely the Americans are to want to fight him. 

For America’s post-Cold War enemies, the lesson is clear: 

Give up your WMD, and you wind up like Gadhafi and Saddam Hussein. 

Build nuclear weapons that can threaten Americans, and you get respect.

DYI 

CIA

Control

Venezuela?

Cash crunch: how Venezuela inadvertently became a cashless economy

Although many nations are moving away from paper money in favor of electronic payments – for convenience and to reduce street crime – critics contend that Venezuela is inadvertently turning into a cashless society thanks to economic blunders by President Nicolás Maduro’s socialist government. Out-of-control state spending, government currency controls and other policies have led to what many describe as hyperinflation, as well the collapse of the bolívar – which now trades at about 107,000 to the pound on the black market.

 DYI:

My working theory is the economic destabilizing and now destruction has been engineered by the CIA who is employed by the elites.  Nothing more than a “shake down” in order to purchase or out right thieve the natural resource assets of Venezuela.  How have come to this conclusion?  The Cuban secret police – which is no longer a secret – are heavily involved in Venezuelan affairs.  Castro and before him Batista was American assets from day one.  Miles Mathis has an excellent article pointing this out plus in this bloggers circles…It is common knowledge.  So…Follow the bread crumbs; Cuba was stripped bear; secret police in Venezuela; Venezuela will be stripped bear.

I constantly read and review government web sites for any possible clues either refuting or supporting my claim.  As I come across them I’ll pass them along. 

 DYI  

Disclaimer

American

Retirement Myth

Even a $1 million retirement nest egg isn't enough anymore

• With more retirees responsible for their own financial security, even a $1 million nest egg isn't nearly enough.
• Considering the looming retirement savings shortfall, experts say there are only two ways out: Earn more or spend less.

A cool $1 million has long been considered the gold standard of retirement savings. These days, it's only a fraction of what you will really need. For instance, a 67-year-old baby boomer retiring now with $1 million in the bank will generate $40,000 a year to live on adjusted for inflation and assuming a sustainable withdrawal rate of 4 percent, said Mark Avallone, president of Potomac Wealth Advisors and author of "Countdown to Financial Freedom." It's worse for a 42-year-old Gen Xer, whose $1 million at retirement will only generate an inflation-adjusted $19,000 a year when all is said and done. And a 32-year-old millennial planning to retire at 67 with $1 million would live below the poverty line. That's what Avallone, a certified financial planner, calls "million-dollar poverty."

Amazing as it seems this CNBC article is spot on as to America’s retirement nightmare.  For those of you who are in your 40’s or 50’s it most definitely earn more and significantly spend less.  Spend less by downsizing to significantly smaller house capturing the gain then buying down your new home with a 15 year or 10 year mortgage (available at credit unions).  With a fully paid off house AND debt free – no car loans and God forbid student loan debt along with credit cards – what retirement dollars you do have will obviously stretch further in a debt free environment.  As you age you may need to move into an assistant living community the sale of a fully paid off house will help defray those costs.  Between your savings and Social Security a reasonable retirement is doable.  No around the world cruises or 4 and 5 star hotels…A working class retirement – not great but doable.

For those who are retired or younger follow my blog in regards to managing our four diametrically opposed assets.  For those of you who don’t want to follow my 4 asset approach here is another alternative.  The Hussman Funds will allow you to reinvest your dividends at any percentage you desire whether it is 1% or 100%.  So…Disregard any retirement savings plans – 401k, Roth IRA, etc. – use only after tax dollars invest in Hussman’s Strategic Total Return Fund with 50% reinvested with the other 50% of the dividends paid into your checking account.  Buy like a madman…Start with a percentage you can live with, every time you get a raise increase the amount by one half of the raise the same with promotions or bonuses.  As the amount increases in your checking account; increase the amount going into the fund.  Keep the pressure on with the long term goal of 100% of your income going into the fund.  Hopefully an organization will create an app that does just that – similar to automatic increases to your 401k plans.  So yes it can be done. Simple.

Disclaimer

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

DYI 

Changed Oil Indicator positive to more fully reflect the power of low oil prices upon the economy. 40% to 60% small cap stocks and added a position of junk bonds High-Yield Corporate Bonds.

12/1/17
Updated Monthly

Oil Prices: 
11/01/12....$109.09

11/01/17......$63.09   

Down 42%(rounded)
(oil prices approximately five years earlier due to weekends & holidays)
ANS West Coast prices   

 OIL INDICATOR:  Positive  Oil indicator will remain positive until it's rise is greater than 75% from five years earlier.

Oil prices are well known for their volatility in the short term, longer term due to dwindling reserves energy prices are in a secular bull market.  Technologies such as fracking will extend the life of oil fields but major new discoveries arrive at a snails pace far slower than the world's growth.  

As long as prices rise in a slow and orderly pace our economy can adjust to those changes, however if prices spike (international tensions, war etc.) high energy costs behave as a massive deflationary tax. This will send our economy tumbling down and very possibly the U.S. stock market.

If oil prices rise greater than 75% from five years earlier, investors at that time should shift their portfolio geared towards deflationary times.  This would be an oil indicator as negative.

If oil prices rise from five years earlier less than 10% or drop then the inflationary play is in effect; a positive for economic growth along with possible higher stock prices.

Where to find five year earlier oil prices?  Alaska Department of Revenue    

Oil indicator positive              
10%  High-Yield Corporate Bonds
10%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M.'s
60%  Small Caps
  0%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Oil indicator negative
  5%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M's
10%  Small Caps
65%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Vanguard Funds

REIT's
REIT Index Admiral  VGSLX

Energy
Energy Fund  VGENX

Precious Metals (P.M.'s)
Precious Metals and Mining Fund  VGPMX

Small Caps
Small Cap Value Index Admiral  VSIAX

High-Yield Corporate Bonds
High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund VWEHX

Long Term Government Bonds
Long-Term Government Bond Index Admiral  VLGSX

Disclaimer

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

%

Allocation Formula

12-01-17
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 – [100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 2)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Current PE10.....31.98

Avg. PE10.........16.80

% Stock Allocation 6% (rounded)

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the median, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 20 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.      

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

Blood & Steel

The problems are far wider and deeper with the out of control Home Land Security, C.I.A, F.B.I .and the rest of the alphabet soup gangs.  These agencies are run by world wide Trillionaires.  That’s not a typo.  Anyone who believes the Rockefeller’s – along with the Kennedy’s plus a hand full of other notables – are mere Billionaires is diluting themselves.  What they – the ruling top families – are orchestrating and choreograph by their upper management, Council of Foreign Relations, is the transfer of all wealth into their hands.  This of course will result in the destruction of America’s middle class!

This can be illustrated by a once burgeoning country that came out roaring economically after the Great Depression…Cuba…That’s right Cuba.  This island nation during the forties and fifties was just not known for its night life in Havana but their expanding and by Latin American standards flourishing middle class.  Their trajectory of growth left unmolested by the 1980’s or early 1990’s would have been on parity with the U.S.  The ruling families who now had control of the Office of Strategic Services then morphed into the Central Intelligence Foreign and Domestic Country Molestation Agency saw Cuba’s wealth ripe for the picking.  The CIA recruited a wealthy wannabee actor, baseball player, and sometime lawyer in the name of Fidel Castro.  That’s right folks he was our boy from the get go.  And extract the wealth they did and as the expression goes “the rest is history”. 

You will say, “That is so short sided”.  These mega super rich compete to see if they can scoop up the riches before their mega rich competitors.  As Mrs. Lusignan as so ably pointed out these individuals are psychopaths but you need to go one step further.  They are nothing more than families living in mansions, jet setting around the world, eating the finest foods – STREET THUGS!  Instead of ripping off one person at a time it is now done one country at a time!  They believe the United States of America is ripe for the picking.

This saga will not end with simple pitch forks.  Long has passed of a peaceful return to constitutional rule.  Sides will be taken.  The civil war but reminiscent of our revolutionary war and struggle from our oppressors will transpire.  Beware elites when the guillotine tastes blood – yours and ours – she will not be finished until gorged and consumed with fatigue.  When America awakes a core portion of patriots cannot be bribed or threatened into submission or retreat into the dead of night – we will do what is in our blood – FIRE – our backbone – STEEL – driven by our souls – FIGHT! 

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!

   DYI

Fake

News

California Shooting

California Crisis Actor Practicing His Lines

CALIFORNIA SHOOTING - RANCHO TEHAMA ELEMENTARY PART 1

********************

Texas

Sutherland Hoax

99.9% THE SMOKING VISIT - EXPOSE TEXAS CHURCH SHOOTING - ITS A WRAP

MSM TRYING TO PLAY OFF AS REGULAR CITIZEN? TEXAS CHURCH MASS SHOOTING - 

DYI

Believing

Authority?

DYI:

From day one as children we are taught to respect our elders that transcends into believing authority figures.  As in the case of JFK are told that Jack Ruby being so distraught that Lee Harvey Oswald who supposedly shot the President (Nov. 22, 1963 12:30 P.M.) worked his way in to a highly secure location – the basement of the Dallas Police Department – with a gun, the news media alerted to his transfer, Ruby shot and killed Oswald (Nov. 24, 1963 12:20 P.M.).  Oswald obviously NOT handcuffed and in civilian clothing.  This is the guy who is accused of shooting the F’ing President NOT handcuffed and NOT in prisoner attire???  The main stream press back then and as it is today tell you what to believe.  They are the authority figures, just as children we are taught to respect the authority of our elders and the main stream press are billed as you’re elders.  Propaganda mind control, simple as that!

DYI