Could Donald Trump be the Last World Emperor? States and Empires After the End of the Fossil Age

Empire

In decline?

Could Donald Trump be the Last World Emperor? States and Empires After the End of the Fossil Age

The 20th century was the age of fossil empires. The British used coal to create the biggest and the most powerful empire ever built -- it faded away with the gradual decline of its coal production. Another ancient empire, Austria-Hungary, the last remnant of the concept of a European Empire, went to pieces during WWI, the only state which didn't survive it. 

The attempt of Italy to re-create the Roman Empire in 1936 with the conquest of Ethiopia had the only effect of generating the shortest-lived empire in the history of the world, just five years but, at least, it could demonstrate that no empire can exist for long without abundant mineral resources available. 

With the end of WWII, only two large empires remained: the Soviet and the American one. Both were based on fossil fuels and, in particular, on the abundant crude oil they could produce. For a while, the Soviet Empire challenged the worldwide supremacy of the American Empire - but it had to give up and fold when its oil resources became too expensive to fuel its military apparatus. 

Today, the sole heir of some four and a half millennia of empire building is the American Empire, a stupendous structure that dominates the world's oceans and a large part of the world's land. But, as for older empires, the American one will last only as long as will be able to produce fossil fuels. And the end starts being in sight: conventional oil production has been declining for decades in the US territory, while the production from shale can only postpone the unavoidable. It may well be that the mighty American Empire will soon follow the path of its predecessors. If this is the case, the collapse will be fast and brutal, the kind of collapse that we call sometimes "Seneca Cliff."

So, the American Empire is destined to go, but what will come after the fall? Most likely, we'll see a situation resembling that of the fall of the Roman Empire, when there were no resources to build another empire of the same size and Europe moved back into an age of independent cities and statelets. 

Nowadays, many people seem to think that the disappearance of fossil fuels would bring a return of the Middle Ages. It might happen: large organizations need a lot of energy to run and, in addition, our civilization will be badly hit by global warming. The result may be the fragmentation of the current political entities, returning to nation-states or even back to city-states. There will not be another World Empire and Donald Trump could be, if not the last emperor, the last who ruled an empire as large as the current American one.

 DYI

Real

Inflation Rate

(Since 1972)

8.77%

DYI:  As we know or we all should know inflationary stats are massage to reflect a far lower number than the real percentage increase.  Budget deficits since they are never payed for just continuously rolled over behaves just the same as printing money thus a debasement of the currency or more commonly called inflation.

When President Richard Nixon removed the last vestige of the Dollar’s convertibility to gold in 1971 any inhibitor to budget deficits – increase in the national debt – was gone with the U.S. left with a 100% fiat currency. 

So…I looked up each year percentage increase from the prior year beginning with the first full year after Tricky Dick (President Nixon) removed the last vestige of a gold standard.  Put the numbers in Excel and clicked on the arithmetic average from 1972 to 2017 the real average annual inflation has been 8.77%!  Here is the problem when attempting to save money and make it grow beyond the inflation rate.  Just to break even on an average basis – some years higher or lower hence the average – you will need to save 8.77% of your income.  Most will want an easy number to remember as in 10% add on the necessary amount to save for retirement would be an additional 15%.  That’s correct you will need to save 25% of your income if you are under the age of 40 to have a secure retirement.  Of course later you start that number will have to rise to reflect less years of compounding.

DYI

Bubble

News!

Pensions Now Depend on Bubbles Never Popping

(ButAll Bubbles Pop)

The nice thing about the "wealth" generated by bubbles is it's so easy: no need to earn wealth the hard way, by scrimping and saving capital and investing it wisely. Just sit back and let central bank stimulus push assets higher. 

The problem with bubble "wealth" is it's like an addictive narcotic: now our entire pension system, public and private, is dependent on the current bubbles in stocks, real estate, junk bonds and other risk assets never popping. 

But a funny thing eventually happens to financial bubbles: they all pop. And when the current bubbles pop, they will gut pension reserves, projections and promises. 

We're living in a fantasy, folks. Bubbles pop, period. The Dow and SPX rose week after week and month after month in the 1999-2000 bubble, and again in the 2007 bubble, and so did junk bonds and housing. Everything rose in lockstep, lending support to the magical-thinking belief that this bubble will never pop because (insert excuse of the moment): housing never drops, the Fed has our back, etc. 

Bubbles pop. To avoid this reality, commentators claim this is not a bubble. Since it's not a bubble, it won't pop. But calling a bubble not-a-bubble doesn't mean it's not a bubble. Wordplay doesn't change reality.

 Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 10/1/18

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

55% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

37% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX

 8% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

 DYI

American

Feudalism

What's clearly happening--and it's been ongoing for quite a while--for those with open eyes is the Class War between the 1% and 99%.

The domestic battle within the Outlaw US Empire as illustrated by never ending wars, fraudulent healthcare providers who are in criminal violation of the Clayton, Robinson Patman, and the Sherman Anti-trust Acts, banks who are routinely fined with no one ever going to prison, undisclosed [no idea where the money went] spending between HUD and DOD over the last 20 years to the tune of 21 TRILLION DOLLARS and so much more!

"As stated many times, the goal of the 

1% is to

 reestablish Feudalism 

via debt-peonage."

All the other happenings geopolitically serve to mask this Class War within the Outlaw US Empire. Clearly, the upcoming financial crisis must spark a massive political upheaval larger than any ever seen before to prevent another institution of the 2008 "solution." Many predict that this crisis will be timed to occur in 2020 constituting the biggest election meddling of all time. The crisis will likely be blamed on China or Russia [possibly both] without any evidence for hacking Wall Street computers and causing the subsequent crash--a Financial False Flag to serve the same purpose as 911.

Much can occur and be obscured during wartime. The radical changes to USA from 1938-1948 is very instructive--the common folk were on the threshold of gaining control over the federal government for the first time in US history only to have it blocked then reversed (forever?) by FDR.  The current War on Terror is used to curtail longstanding civil liberties and constitutional rights and much more.

To accomplish what's being called "Bail-In" within the USA, Martial Law would need to be emplaced since most of the public is to be robbed of whatever cash they have, and World War would probably be the only way to get Martial Law instituted--and accepted by the military which would be its enforcer. A precedent exists for stealing money from the people--their gold--via Executive Order 6102, which used a law instituted during WW1 and that was finally repealed by law on December 31, 1974.

DYI

Creeping

Fascism  

Travelers refusing to hand over phone password at airport now face $5000 Customs fine

[New Zealand]

Travellers who refuse to hand over their phone or laptop passwords to Customs officials can now be slapped with a $5000 fine. 

The Customs and Excise Act 2018 - which comes into effect today - sets guidelines around how Customs can carry out "digital strip-searches". 

Previously, Customs could stop anyone at the border and demand to see their electronic devices. However, the law did not specify that people had to also provide a password. 

The updated law makes clear that travelers must provide access - whether that be a password, pin-code or fingerprint - but officials would need to have a reasonable suspicion of wrongdoing.

 If people refused to comply, they could be fined up to $5000 and their device would be seized and forensically searched. 

"Nowadays we've got everything on our phones; we've got all our personal life, all our doctors' records, our emails, absolutely everything on it, and customs can take that and keep it." 

"They don't have to tell you what the cause of that suspicion is, there's no way to challenge it."

Border officials searched roughly 540 electronic devices at New Zealand airports in 2017. 

Customs will be required to keep Parliament updated on the number of devices searched every year. The agency said it did not expect the number to increase.

 DYI

Global Elites Speak!

One of Global Finance's Biggest Doctors Warns: The World Economy Is About to Get Very Sick

Unless banks and governments switch gears from tax cuts to addressing inequality, we may be in for a lengthy economic downturn soon.

When Claudio Borio speaks, the big bankers and investors, the economics profession, and senior policymakers listen quite carefully—even if his sentiments don’t reach the shores of the popular media. Borio, the chief economist for the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bankers’ central bank, recently remarked on the fragility of the global economy, and suggested that we were on the verge of a significant relapse similar to the global crash experienced 10 years ago. Among the parallels he perceives: the proliferation of “collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), which are ‘close cousins’ of the infamous instruments known as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, and securities backed by residential mortgages,” the prevalence of which helped to crater the credit system in 2008.

DYI:  The Bank of International Settlements located in Basel Switzerland is the world’s central bank for all of the world’s central banks within their grasp.  This super central bank is controlled by the top tier elites and when their mouth piece senior economist speaks we need to listen.  Their turn-around regarding income inequality is NOT based upon seeing moral errors but simply declining profits.  Don’t expect for those who labor for a living having the upper hand.  Simply put enough of a push up of living standard to keep the masses from revolting and the elites firmly in control.

DYI

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Their still pushing the Las Vegas garbage

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DYI

Disclaimer

10/1/18
Updated Monthly

Oil Prices: 
10/01/13....$105.65

09/28/18......$81.71   

Down 23%(rounded)
(oil prices approximately five years earlier due to weekends & holidays)
ANS West Coast prices   

 OIL INDICATOR:  Positive  Oil indicator will remain positive until it's rise is greater than 75% from five years earlier.

Oil prices are well known for their volatility in the short term, longer term due to dwindling reserves energy prices are in a secular bull market.  Technologies such as fracking will extend the life of oil fields but major new discoveries arrive at a snails pace far slower than the world's growth.  

As long as prices rise in a slow and orderly pace our economy can adjust to those changes, however if prices spike (international tensions, war etc.) high energy costs behave as a massive deflationary tax. This will send our economy tumbling down and very possibly the U.S. stock market.

If oil prices rise greater than 75% from five years earlier, investors at that time should shift their portfolio geared towards deflationary times.  This would be an oil indicator as negative.

If oil prices rise from five years earlier less than 10% or drop then the inflationary play is in effect; a positive for economic growth along with possible higher stock prices.

Where to find five year earlier oil prices?  Alaska Department of Revenue    

Oil indicator positive              
  5%  High-Yield Corporate Bonds
10%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M.'s
65%  Small Caps
  0%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Oil indicator negative
  5%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M's
10%  Small Caps
65%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Vanguard Funds

REIT's
REIT Index Admiral  VGSLX

Energy
Energy Fund  VGENX

Precious Metals (P.M.'s)
Precious Metals and Mining Fund  VGPMX

Small Caps
Small Cap Value Index Admiral  VSIAX

High-Yield Corporate Bonds
High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund VWEHX

Long Term Government Bonds
Long-Term Government Bond Index Admiral  VLGSX

Disclaimer

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Tyranny!

New ‘Red Flag’ Law Could Take Guns Away From Those Who Present a Danger

ABERDEEN, Md. (WJZ) — A new “red flag” law could take guns out of the hands of those who present a danger in a state recently plagued by mass shootings.Maryland’s already tight gun laws are about to lock down further.

Starting October 1, families and police can ask the courts to take guns away from people flagged as dangerous.It aims to prevent attacks like the one at the Rite Aid distribution center last Thursday. 
The law goes on the books a week and a half after the mass attack in Harford County.

DYI:  Completely based on a false premise as the Rite Aid was another DHS FEMA drill; no one was shot; no one was killed or wounded promoted as real by the lying PROPAGANDA spewing main stream press.  Even if the premise was real [it is not] this is unconstitutional as the courts/police are taking away an individual’s rights who have NOT committed a crime!

Gun owners must oppose ‘red flag’ laws that deny people rights without due process

A new wave of dangerous laws is being pushed across the United States. These laws don’t require due process and your rights are removed without a crime ever being committed. If this sounds familiar, then it may sound like something out of “Minority Report” with Tom Cruise. Sadly, it isn’t a Hollywood blockbuster, it’s the new America. At least it will be if yours don’t fight back. 

“Red flag” laws, also known as “extreme risk protection orders” or “gun violence restraining orders,” have now passed in 12 states. Even some Republican-controlled states (Indiana and Florida) have passed these laws. They are dangerous to freedom, unconstitutional and should be more properly termed “gun confiscation orders.” 

So how exactly do these “red flag” laws work? There isn’t one answer for this as states implement them differently. Generally speaking, the police are notified by someone (usually an immediate family member) that a person is a threat to themselves or others. The police gather evidence from the family member and take it to a judge. The judge then determines if there is sufficient evidence of a threat. If he believes there is, he then issues an order for the police to confiscate the individual’s guns.

Remember, no crime has been committed, and the person who loses their rights does not get to defend themselves before those rights are removed. 

 Some have the audacity to call this “due process.” It’s not due process if you aren’t part of the process.  

Going to court after your guns have been removed, to petition to get them back, is also not due process.

 DYI

Dying Gasp of Empire?

Parents Are Leery Of Schools Requiring ‘Mental Health’ Disclosures By Students

Children registering for school in Florida this year were asked to reveal some history about their mental health.
The new requirement is part of a law rushed through the state legislature after the February shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla.
On registration forms for new students, the state’s school districts now must ask whether a child has ever been referred for mental health services.

DYI:  Right up front this article from the Kaiser Health News is either way missed informed or something is far more sinister.  As we know or you should know that the Parkland Douglas High School was a mass casualty drill promoted by the Department of Homeland Security Integrated Capstone event that has been reported as real by the main stream press.  In 2012 the Smith – Mundt Act was modernized [repealed] allowing the Federal government to create [outsourced to MSM] sponsored news or more commonly known as PROPAGANDA.  Simply put all of these high profile mass shootings/truck run overs are drills; no one was shot [or run over]; no one was killed or wounded.

To put all of this in perspective it is necessary to go back in time when the Soviet Union collapsed the day after Christmas in 1991 creating a huge power vacuum.  The elites saw an opportunity to fulfill their dream of a one world government [elites in charge of course] all propelled by the remaining super power.  Obviously attempting to sell the American public that we should become the next global tyrant would be seen as anti – American and correctly as EVIL!  So…What was needed to keep military expenditures bloated a new enemy was needed.  The war on terrorism was the first choice as it is open ended thus never ending and not country specific but only generalized geographic areas allowing free reign for a marauding military.  To convince Americans and many Europeans as well the 911 inside job was hatched and the never ending war on terror was born.

Backdrop of Corruption

As with all misguided ventures unintended consequences has once again prevailed.  A global tyrant breeds corruption on a vast scale thus depleting our economy.  Banks who are routinely fined yet never prosecuted for their crimes.  The Medical Industrial Complex that is in continuous criminal violation of three Acts; Robinson-Patman, Clayton, and Sherman Anti-Trust.  Undisclosed spending [no idea where the money went] over the past 20 years for the Housing and Urban Development and the Department of Defense is neither in the millions, nor billions but to the tune of 21 TRILLION DOLLARS!  Along with NASA who put up on their TV channel/web sites one fake space outing after another proving they are a vast bottomless money pit.  Those are the major areas with the so called minor areas of corruption amounts to hundreds of billions annually.

As the economy continues to struggle under the weight of bloated military spending and massive corruption the American public have grown war and corruption weary.  To provide distraction and to clamp down on those who disagree with the government [elites] these faked staged mass shooting events have been used AND to move into the direction of mental health.  This is not just a move into gun control but will be used against political dissidents.  With the development of the decentralized internet the main stream propaganda spewing press can no longer deliver the narrative.  Thus more draconian measure will required to keep the populous under constant control.

History will record this as the last dying gasps of an empire that has depleted its military and expended its treasury through untold levels of corruption attempting to achieve an unattainable goal of world conquest.  This dying process will be along the lines of the Roman’s; a long drawn out process until they completely disappeared.

 DYI