Bullish Demand for Gold?

Gold in Short Supply as Desperate Governments Scramble for Access

Governments are desperate

Investors today, most of whom have never seen a crash which governments haven’t bailed them out of, remain confident that if the current stock market correction accelerates, that central banks will once again step in. 

But while investors trust governments to bail them out, there is increasing evidence that those governments don’t trust each other. US debt held by China, Japan and Russia is particularly suspect. 

One key metric: according to the Institute of International Finance global government, business and personal debts rose to $247 trillion in Q1 2018. That’s more than triple annual economic output. 

Governments know that when inevitable defaults begin –through inflation or outright debt write-offs - that the most attractive paths will be to stiff each other, rather than voters. 

Since then, a slew of major global central banks, ranging from Russia, to China and Germany have been visibly stocking up their reserves, or repatriating them to their home territories.

DYI

American

Exceptionalism??

Kremlin Scoffs at U.S. Criticism of Bombers in Venezuela

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo responded to Monday's arrival of a pair of Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers in Venezuela by tweeting that "the Russian and Venezuelan people should see this for what it is: two corrupt governments squandering public funds, and squelching liberty and freedom while their people suffer."

DYI:  My God who is calling the kettle black???  Squander money??  Take away freedoms???  Between our Housing Urban & Development and the Department of Defense over the past 21 years these two agencies – cesspools of corruption – cannot account for 21 TRILLION DOLLARS!  That’s right; not million, not billion, but 21 trillion!

 Entire Federal Budget Now National Security Secret – Dr. Mark Skidmore

Michigan State Economics Professor Mark Skidmore made a stunning discovery late last year. Using publicly available government accounting reports, he revealed there was $21 trillion in what he calls “missing money” from the Department of Defense (DOD) and Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The data he used has been scrubbed, all accounting records are heavily redacted and now the federal government has declared its accounting falls under “national security.” Dr. Skidmore can no longer get the government to respond. Dr. Skidmore explains, “At this point, they are no longer responding to any of my inquiries. They are just not answering, and that is very astounding . . . and you can go on and look at the report yourself and see all of it blacked out. I actually lost sleep over that. That really bothered me.

DYI:  Decade after decade American citizens rights have been systematically eroded away.  Today we live in a corporate/government run fascist state maintained by non stop propaganda pumped out by the main stream press in an attempt to convince the majority of our populous about how glorious the economy is and our vast freedoms.  Nothing could be further from the truth!  Though out the life of this blog; I have posted one article after another; abuses to our citizens by the hands of our Federal controllers. Economy??  Roller coaster economy of massive booms and busts and then has the unmitigated gall spoken by the Federal Reserve that our salvation is a plus 2% inflation rate thus debasing our hard earned savings.  

Till next time!

DYI

Air Travel

BLUES

The 13 biggest air travel complaints of 2018, from flight delays to discrimination and more

The experience is so bad, 32 million potential trips never took place in 2016, according to a survey by the U.S. Travel Association. People decided it was not worth the trouble.

DYI:  I will tell you up front I’m one of those 32 million.  Flying today is such a pain in the ass I won’t go through all of the hassles unless I don’t have a choice.  So far I haven’t had that “no choice” situation; have not flown in over a decade.  All of these hassles are based upon the fraudulent and staged events for our war on terror.  Thank God as more and more of our citizens realize that 911 was an inside job by rogue elements in our government and portions of that day outsourced to the Israeli Mossad.  Anyone believing the official 911 report must be mad!

DYI

Medical

Industrial Complex 

WELCOME TO OUR MODERN HOSPITAL WHERE IF YOU WANT TO KNOW A PRICE YOU CAN GO FUCK YOURSELF

Welcome to America General Hospital! Seems you have an oozing head injury there. Let’s check your insurance. Okay, quick “heads up” — ha! — Your plan may not cover everything today. What’s that? 

You want a reasonable price quote, upfront, for our services? 

Sorry, let me explain a hospital to you: 

we give you medical care, and then we charge whatever the hell we want for it. 

Honestly, there’s no telling what you’ll pay today. Maybe $700. Maybe $70,000. It’s a fun surprise! Maybe you’ll go to the ER for five minutes, get no treatment, then we’ll charge you $5,000 for an ice pack and a bandage. Then your insurance company will be like, “This is nuts. We’re not paying this.” Who knows how hard you’ll get screwed? You will, in three months. If you don’t like that, go fuck yourself and die.

DYI:  The Medical Industrial Complex is far more out of control than the Military Industrial Complex ever dreamed!  This industry pumps out far more in campaign bribes – ah I mean donations – than any industry.  Plus they have the main stream press in their hip pocket with their massive advertising budgets over riding any stories regarding these outrageous pricing scams.  Medical care consumes 21% of GDP thus impoverishing so many of our citizens who have had to file bankruptcy stripping them of wealth that took a lifetime to acquire.  These companies are in criminal violation of the Robinson-Patman, Clayton and the Sherman Anti-Trust Acts.  If the Federal Attorney General and/or State Attorney Generals through their consumer protection laws enforced these laws prices would easily drop by 75% plus.  That is not a typo.

Don’t believe me??? Go to the Surgery Center of Oklahoma web site who are competitive and don’t play any of these pricing scams.  They tell you right up front the cost [posted on their web site] and it is all in pricing.  The surgeon preforms the surgery but finds additional needed work.  Do you pay it?  NO!  They eat it.  Get an infection after the surgery.  Again do you pay for that additional expense.  NO!  They eat it!  Consequently their infection rate is 1/20 of the national average.

When our next downturn arrives I would not be surprised if 10 to 15 percent of our population becomes homeless all brought to you by an out of control military, bankers, and health care chewing up massive costs all borne by our citizens.

DYI

Recession Indicators

Recession

Indicator

One Shoe has Dropped

Worldwide Liquidity Drought – Money Supply Growth Slows Everywhere

This is a brief update on money supply growth trends in the most important currency areas outside the US (namely the euro area, Japan and China)as announced in in our recent update on US money supply growth (see “Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency” for the details). 

The liquidity drought is not confined to the US – it is fair to say that it is a global phenomenon, even though money supply growth rates in the euro area and Japan superficially still look fairly brisk. However, they are in the process of slowing down quite rapidly from much higher levels – and this trend seems set to continue.

US Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Slow Down

We say this for two reasons: for one thing, the Fed is reactive and when it moves   from a tightening to a neutral or an easing bias, it usually indicates that the economy has deteriorated to the point where it can be expected to fall off a cliff shortly.

In short, the environment continues to become ever more challenging for stocks and bonds. The recent increase in market volatility is unlikely to remain an exception and should actually be seen as a serious warning sign. 

Note that credit spreads have recently begun to break out across a broad range of rating categories as well.

Recession Indicators

• DYI’s Recession warning checklist:

• Two year Treasury notes invert ten year Treasury Bonds.

• Widening credit spread…Comparing yields between the 5 year Treasury note and Vanguard’s High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund.

• Falling stock prices…S&P 500 fifty day moving average below the two hundred day moving average.

• Falling Home Builders Index…The indexes fifty day average below its respective two hundred day average.

• Purchases Managers Index:  PMI below 50

DYI:  When all five indicators are present recession is imminent – within 90 days – or already present but not recognized by the majority of the investment community.

So far only credit spreads have widened indicating only one of DYI's recession indicators.  However as of 12/09/18 the difference between the 2 and 10 year bond remains positive but has narrowed to a scant 13 basis points (0.13) difference in yield.  Has not inverted but is very close another rate increase by the Fed would probably create an inversion of yields.  The remaining indicators remain positive.  I'll be on the outlook for any changes positive or negative.

DYI

Videos

American

PROPAGANDA

99.9% EXPOSE STAGE ALASKA ANCHORAGE EARTHQUAKE H0AX? YOU BE THE JUDGE

THOUSAND H0AX SHOOTING CONTINUES SHES BACKKKKKKKK

Part 10 - Military & 1st Responder Bad Luck Vegas

Mars Insight-Just Not by NASA

DYI:  This is why they call it tell-LIE-vision!

DYI

Bubble

Trouble

Dow plunges nearly 800 points on rising fears of an economic slowdown

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 799.36 points, or 3.1 percent, to close at 25,027.07 and posted its worst day since Oct. 10. At its low of the day, the Dow had fallen more than 800 points. 

The S&P 500 declined 3.2 percent to close at 2,700.06. The benchmark fell below its 200-day moving average, which triggered more selling from algorithmic funds. Financials were the worst performers in the S&P 500, plunging 4.4 percent. Utilities was the only positive sector in the S&P 500, rising 0.16 percent.

Worldoutlook darkens as factory activity slips, orders fall

In a sign that corporate sentiment is taking a hit from the worries over protectionism, manufacturing activity slipped in November in countries as varied as France, Germany, Indonesia and South Korea, IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Indexes showed on Monday.

Ford To Announce 25,000 Job Cuts: Morgan Stanley

MS analyst Adam Jonas said that as part of Ford's $11 billion 'restructuring', Morgan Stanley expects the car maker could cut as many as 25,000 jobs (though the bulk of the cuts would likely focus on its profit-draining European operations).

 DYI

Recession

On the Horizon?

The Flattening Yield Curve Just Produced Its First Inversions

The spread between 3- and 5-year yields fell to negative 1.4 basis points Monday, dropping below zero for the first time since 2007, and the 2- to 5-year gap soon followed. The 2- to 10-year is more closely watched as a potential indicator of pending recessions. But Monday’s move could be the first signal that the market is putting the Federal Reserve on notice that the end of its tightening cycle is approaching. 

While the yields on shorter-maturities fell on Tuesday during Asian hours, the spread between 3-, 5-year yields remained stable. Longer-maturity bonds rallied sharply, flattening the long-end of the yield curve. The U.S. 10-year slipped another 3 basis points to 2.94 percent, dropping below the 200-day moving average for the first time this year. 

The spread between 2- and 10-year rates -- arguably the most closely watched section of the curve -- dwindled below 15 basis points, the flattest since 2007.

DYI:  So far DYI’s recession indicators all remain for ongoing growth in the economy.  However, this slight inversion though not enough to predict a recession it is enough to keep us on our toes for that possibility.  The economy bottomed out in 2009 which means this economic rebound is now long in the tooth.  Add on an insanely overvalue stock and junk bond market plus a jacked up real estate market an economic falloff these asset categories are in for a very big drop.

DYI

Be very careful U.S. Stocks are insanely overvalued...Low oil prices is one major reason for stocks remaining so robust!

12/04/18
Updated Monthly

Oil Prices: 
12/02/13....$104.80

11/29/18......$60.46   

Down 42%(rounded)
(oil prices approximately five years earlier due to weekends & holidays)
ANS West Coast prices   

 OIL INDICATOR:  Positive  Oil indicator will remain positive until it's rise is greater than 75% from five years earlier.

Oil prices are well known for their volatility in the short term, longer term due to dwindling reserves energy prices are in a secular bull market.  Technologies such as fracking will extend the life of oil fields but major new discoveries arrive at a snails pace far slower than the world's growth.  

As long as prices rise in a slow and orderly pace our economy can adjust to those changes, however if prices spike (international tensions, war etc.) high energy costs behave as a massive deflationary tax. This will send our economy tumbling down and very possibly the U.S. stock market.

If oil prices rise greater than 75% from five years earlier, investors at that time should shift their portfolio geared towards deflationary times.  This would be an oil indicator as negative.

If oil prices rise from five years earlier less than 10% or drop then the inflationary play is in effect; a positive for economic growth along with possible higher stock prices.

Where to find five year earlier oil prices?  Alaska Department of Revenue    

Oil indicator positive              
  5%  High-Yield Corporate Bonds
10%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M.'s
65%  Small Caps
  0%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Oil indicator negative
  5%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M's
10%  Small Caps
65%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Vanguard Funds

REIT's
REIT Index Admiral  VGSLX

Energy
Energy Fund  VGENX

Precious Metals (P.M.'s)
Global Capital Cycles Fund VGPMX

Small Caps
Small Cap Value Index Admiral  VSIAX

High-Yield Corporate Bonds
High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund VWEHX

Long Term Government Bonds
Long-Term Government Bond Index Admiral  VLGSX

Disclaimer

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

American

Racketeering 

Conservative groups write letter opposing Trump move to lower drug prices

A coalition of 55 conservative groups has written a letter calling on the Trump administration to withdraw a proposal to lower drug prices, warning of creating "price controls." 

The proposal Trump announced in October would lower prices for some drugs paid for by Medicare by tying the price to lower prices in other countries. The idea received some praise from Democrats, who also called for stronger steps, but is far different than the proposals usually favored by Republicans to let the market work out prices on its own. 

The letter warns that the administration's proposal "imports foreign price controls into the U.S.

DYI:  These 55 groups are nothing less than monopolistic racketeers.  Couching all of their language with free enterprise catch phrases [propaganda] in an attempt to maintain their lock on drug prices instead of real free market attributes the likes of transparent price discovery.  This industry has a special exemption from Congress – that is polar opposite of the Clayton, Robinson-Patman, and Sherman Anti-Trust Acts – against re-importation of ethical drugs thus assuring their lock on prices. This and so many other areas of our economy have State sponsored command economy that is illegal under 100+ year old anti-trust laws.  Allow for re-importation prices would fall – depending upon the drug – from 60% to 90%.

And by the way since this activity is illegal [before mentioned acts] these 55 organization could and should be brought to task for openly advocating the continued criminal activity up to indictment as co-conspirators.  This is not a 1^st amendment issue as they are openly and brazenly attempting to influence the President of the United States to continue the pharmaceutical industries racketeering.

  Make America Great

9

Sisters

Of

Institutional Change

1.)     End the Federal Reserve

2.)     Repeal 17th Amendment – Reinstate Federal Senators chosen by State Legislators.

1. Term Limits – Constitutional Amendment

A. Two six year terms for Senators

B. Three terms House of Representatives

3.)     Repeal 16th Amendment – Income tax replace with value added tax.

4.)     Pass the Balanced Budget Amendment

5.)     Exit the United Nations

6.)     Reign in the Medical Industrial Complex

a. Enforce Anti-Trust Laws

b. Pass Legislation for re-importation of ethical drugs

7.)     End Federal and Private Student Loans

8.)     Trust Bust Monopolies

               9.)     Reduce & Decentralize the Federal Government 

DYI