Heavy truck sales are oddly a good leading indicator for the economy. It is odd because a lot of industrial production is coincident with the business cycle. However, if you go back over forty years, you can see that recessions have always been preceded by a decline in heavy truck sales. This is particularly true if the increase in truck sales is very large. Today, truck sales are not far from where they were at previous cyclical peaks in 1999 and 2007. The level of sales is falling and the year over year change is approaching zero.
DYI Comments: The economy continues to dance on the head of a pin between slow growth and recession. The economy is becoming a bit dicey for continued growth(what little there is) so far it is too soon for a recession call but no doubt forces are going the wrong direction.
DYI
No comments:
Post a Comment