Democratic

Showdown 

Spain threatens to arrest over 700 Catalan pro-referendum mayors - The Telegraph News U.K.

Spain and its most powerful and prosperous region are headed for a showdown, with police trying to shut down polling stations to stop the referendum and activists, students and parents occupying schools designated voting places to keep them open.

Much remains unclear, including whether police will forcibly remove people who are still in the polling stations at a 6 a.m. Sunday deadline and how many of Catalonia’s voters will be able to cast ballots amid the central government’s crackdown. AP-News

Spain’s

Fascist 

President of the Government - Mariano Rajoy Brey

DYI

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

EYC Ratio = [ (1/PE10) x 100] x 1.1] / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - rebalance portfolio - Re-think stock/bond allocation.

Current EYC Ratio: 1.01 (rounded)

As of 10-1-17
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........30.83
Bond Rate...3.54%

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss......If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%

Allocation Formula

10-01-17
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 – [100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 2)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Current PE10.....30.83

Avg. PE10.........16.78

% Stock Allocation 11% 

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the median, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 20 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.      

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

Disclaimer

10-01-17

Updated Monthly

Current Allocation  

Ultra Long Term Bonds

Allocating between short term bonds

 & 

ultra long term bonds

 

Every month DYI will look back to gold prices from five years ago as compared to current prices.  When gold prices are below from five years ago deflationary - dis-inflationary forces are at work. The most common reason (and other reasons) a recession is coming and with it declining interest rates as the demand for money cools off.  

Conversely if gold prices are higher than five years ago inflationary forces are at work.  The most common is a growing economy (and other reasons) which will soon push interest rates higher.

When gold prices decline from five years ago - Buy Long Term Bonds

When gold prices increase from five years ago - Buy Short Dated Bonds

Disclaimer

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

"The problem in Venezuela is not that socialism has been poorly implemented but that socialism has been faithfully implemented. From the Soviet Union to Cuba, Venezuela — wherever socialism or communism has been adopted, it has delivered anguish, devastation and failure."

President Trump

If Socialism Is the Problem in Venezuela, More Sanctions Are Not the Solution

More could be done, of course, but to what end? More sanctions on more of Maduro’s people has been suggested, along with criminal investigations into Maduro’s theft of $10 million from the country’s treasury and ties to the illicit drug industry by some of his top military people. Those investigations could extend to the widespread corrupt food import scheme that has left nearly the entire country starving. But again, to what end? As Michael Shifter, president of the 

Washington-based think tank Inter-American Dialogue, observed: “There is no sign [the present sanctions] are succeeding in the way that the U.S. had hoped.” 

Socialism sows the seeds of its own destruction. Its deliberate murder of the free market through price controls has reduced the regime’s cash flow to the point where it must either borrow from abroad, or print new money. Venezuela has been doing both. Inflation is estimated to approach 2,000 percent this year, rendering the country’s bolivar currency essentially worthless. And it has borrowed an estimated $150 billion from lenders including China and Russia. 

Now those seeds are sprouting: Maduro’s government has drained its cash reserves but owes its lenders $5 billion in principal and interest before the end of the year. Despite the $1 billion a month flowing into PDVSA, Maduro’s state-owned oil company, from American refiners (one area which the Trump regime has been reluctant to sanction), 

it’s mathematics that will sink Maduro, and accomplish Trump’s objective without firing a shot or adding one more Maduro crony to his sanctions list. Defaults will lead to seizures of his oil company’s assets, thus ending his regime through financial asphyxiation. 

Venezuela sits atop the world’s largest proven oil reserves. A new regime, managed carefully and prudently, using tried-and-true free-market principles (i.e., rule of law, support of private property and contracts, government limited to its proper role, etc.) would return Venezuela to its rightful position as the leading economic powerhouse it once was prior to the arrival of Marxists Hugo Chávez and his protégé Nicolas Maduro.

 DYI: 

The collapse will occur what will be telling is how the Russians and/or China respond when they seize Venezuela’s oil assets due to default.  There is a possibility that either one or both decides to colonize the country and strip it economically bare.  Of course with one or two foreign powers in South America is in direct confrontation of the Monroe Doctrine that is defined; as a principle of US policy, originated by President James Monroe in 1823, that any intervention by external powers in the politics of the Americas is a potentially hostile act against the US.

DYI

The

Deep State

(Powered by Graft & Fraud)

DOD and HUD Missing Money: Supporting Documentation for $21 Trillion of Undocumentable Adjustments

Update from CAF: Dr. Skidmore and his team have now reviewed additional documentation and undocumented adjustments at DOD and HUD now total $21 trillion – ore than the outstanding debt on the US government balance sheet. The report table has been updated as of Wednesday, September 27 to include these staggering amounts. The Summary Report still uses the prior totals. Our gratitude for Dr. Skidmore’s efforts to understand and document this phenomenon is “off the charts”! We will be adding additional files and information as they find them.

 DYI:

I am not surprised as America – my country – moves along the path of 3^rd world corruption with a superpower piggy bank to fleece.  At these levels of insane dollar amounts our infrastructure would have been completely repaired along with a high speed passenger rail system that would be the envy of the world.  But alas the Deep State which flourishes on graft and fraud has pocketed America’s future.

DYI

Dollar

Terrorism

25/September/2017

Prospects for Gold II

Hugo Salinas Price

In my previous article, "My Views Regarding Prospects for Gold", published on September 21, I addressed the consequences of the Chinese scheme "to be launched formally by the end of the year, by means of which exporters of oil to China will accept the Chinese currency, the Yuan, in payment for oil; for this deal, the Chinese have added an incentive: the Yuan received by the oil exporters will be exchangeable for gold. This gold will be "sourced", i.e. "purchased" outside of China, for the oil exporters." 

This scheme - should China effectively carry through on its intentions - is quite revolutionary and likely to have vast consequences which will affect the whole world. 

For the first time, since August of 1971- 46 years ago - gold will once again form part of commercial international transactions. 

Not only is it a first in 46 years, but the Chinese are linking together both the world's real money, gold, 

AND 

the world's most important commodity, 

OIL, 

which is the fundamental motor of all the world's productive activity. 

By contrast, it is helpful to consider how the US dealt with the oil-gold nexus in 1971. 

By 1970, it was evident to those running the US that it would very soon be necessary to import large quantities of oil from Saudi Arabia. Under the Bretton Woods Agreements of 1945, the immense quantities of Dollars which would shortly flow to Saudi Arabia in payment of their oil would be claims upon US gold, at the time quoted at $35 Dollars an ounce. Those claims would surely deplete the remaining gold held by the US Treasury in short order. It thus became imperative to cut the nexus between gold and the Dollar. Accordingly, on August 15, 1971, the US did just that: the US went "off gold" and continued to pay Dollars for Saudi oil. Kissinger convinced the Saudi that they should deposit their Dollars in the US banking system and hold Dollar Bonds. 

The alternative, to continue under the Bretton Woods monetary system, would have meant that the US would have been forced to raise the price of gold to an enormous figure, in order to reduce the amount of gold payable to the Saudi, to a tolerable level. But raising the Dollar price of gold in that manner, would have constituted a great devaluation of the Dollar and collapsed its international prestige; that in turn, would have ended the predominance of the US as the Number One power in the world. The US was not willing to accept that outcome. So, Nixon "closed the gold window" on August 15, 1971. 

The Chinese measure, which we have outlined above, will go contrary to the American decision of 1971. It is going to raise, and keep raising the price of gold, through its "oil - for Yuan - for gold" scheme, if and when it is launched as programmed later this year.

The establishment of a nexus between, oil, the world's most important commodity and foundation of the world's industrial activity, and gold, which is the world's true money, will overthrow everything which we have taken for granted during the last 46 years. 

China's gold reserves, which serious analysts have calculated at not less than 30,000 tons, plus the gold held by the population (which the Chinese leadership has encouraged it to hold) will increase the wealth and influence of China in the world. 

Once the Yuan has been sufficiently devalued, the Chinese government will be able to make all Yuan currency redeemable in gold, plus all Chinese private and government debt. Russia has sufficient gold reserves to follow suit. 

The Chinese and Russians will then be able to demand gold in payment of their exports and be willing to pay gold for their imports.Thus, the establishment of the all-important nexus between oil and gold is a first step that may lead, in due course of time, to the re-establishment of the gold standard in the world. 

Needless to say, the very big devaluation of the Dollar will place the US in an extremely difficult situation. On this sobering subject, perhaps another outline here, in the future.

DYI:

The U.S. is in a race against time not only for our international prestige but our domestic economy as well.

International

Internationally since abandonment of the last vestige of the gold standard by President Tricky Dick Nixon in 1971 America’s major export has and continues to this day is inflation.  This creates a love/hate relationship enjoying exports to the States but hating inflated dollars or corporate/government bonds.  This in turn requires those countries to dampen internal domestic consumption – lowering their populous living standards – in order to inhibit the dollar’s inflationary impact all at the same time devaluing their currencies to compete with an artificially high dollar.

Hence my title Dollar Terrorism as any oil producing country such as Iraq or Libya who dared move off the dollar reservation was attacked militarily and quickly “snapped back” to trading the almighty buck.  It will be seen if Venezuela trading one half of their oil proceeds in a basket of non dollar currencies will end up with the same fate.  My suspicions instead of military action the U.S. will flood Venezuela with CIA operatives along with their contractor – the 2^nd arm of the CIA – Booz, Allen & Hamilton to foment the toppling of Maduro and once again “snap back” Venezuela to the dollar reservation. 

The big boys – Russia and China – military force is ruled out they are major military players all armed with nuclear weapons.  Using the CIA or their contractors would be a non starter as both countries internal security is tight as a drum only resulting in one arrest and imprisoning after another of our security forces.

So…If Russia and China desires to move to some form of gold standard for oil and gas – IT WILL HAPPEN!

America’s international prestige is tied to the world’s reserve currency the almighty buck when this occurs – and I believe it will – the dollar will take a tumble.  Once this materializes, other countries – oil producing or not – will tie in in some form or another to the gold exchange network further eroding the value of the dollar.  The biggest effect will be the displacement of the dollar and gold will be the new reserve currency.

U.S. Remains a Superpower 

The U.S. will remain a superpower but the days of world domination are numbered whether it is through oil and gas priced in gold or not America is soon to “hit the wall” as has happened to all empires of the past – EMPIRES WILL BANKRUPT A NATION.  Just as Ronald Reagan outspent the Soviet’s with defense spending this simply speeded up the process – the Russian empire [Warsaw Pact] was doomed to collapse (too costly) – oil and gas traded in gold will effect the same change “speeding up” the end of the American empire.

Domestic Economy

China and Russia ending the petrol dollar between these two countries dollars will begin their journey home causing an underlining inflationary rate uncontrollable by the Fed’s unless draconian measures are used.  This will build up steam as more and more countries join the gold rank and file first for oil and gas then trade in general.  When this happens Congress along with the President will no longer run massive budget deficits as this will have the effect of throwing gasoline onto the inflationary fire; jacking up interest rates to compensate lenders depressing our economy between the hammer of inflation and the anvil of increasing interest rates.  To say the least voters – no matter how entrenched a politicians is – will lose his nomination during the primaries to an outraged electorate.

Retirement of World Wide Boomers

Boomers began their forty plus years climbing the mountain the world over for saving/investing creating a massive savings glut driving down interest rates to sub atomic low levels (plus help from central banks) among 1^st and 2^nd world countries.  Upon reaching the summit their savings/investing is throw off the cliff; once retired plummeting to zero AND begin receiving government retirement (Social Security) and health care (Medicare) benefits adding significantly to government outlays.  The dilemma of a guns or butter economy doing both – especially if oil and gas is price in gold – IS OUT OF THE QUESTION!

President Donald Trump is the first president to directly tell all NATO members to pay significant increases in order to preserve this alliance as America will no longer shoulder the majority of costs.  Of course the real translation is America can longer afford this luxury plus containing Russia is no longer a threat. 

  

This consequence of age has begun in Central Europe with the blow up of their abundant social programs all being tapped by their retiring Boomers.  This has just begun here in the States as the leading edge of this massive generation – born 1943 to 1960 (Strauss & Howe) 79 million strong – with the leading edge at the young age of 75 and the tail end babies age 58!  This is why interest rates are slowly drifting upwards – much to the chagrin of our Central bankers – the world wide savings glut is in the process of ending replaced by large scale governmental social outlays.

   

America will be Great Again – A Period of Transition!

Winston Churchill

Americans Will Always Do the Right Thing —

After Exhausting All the Alternatives!

Race against Time!

America is in a race against time.  Ageing Boomers ending the savings glut and hemorrhaging Social Security and Medicare plus the ending – thank God – global empire.  But don’t think for a minute all is lost.  America after exhausting all avenues will land on our feet and remain at least for the next 50 years plus a super power.  As with all transitions there will be bumps in the road, some small others not so much – massive!  Leading edge Boomers have already begun selling off systematically stocks, bonds, and real estate placing downward pressure upon an overvalued market for all three primary assets.  Plus the days of the petrol dollar is coming to a close along with the Bretton Woods Accords (see my previous posts).

Will the U.S. drag down the world into a global recession if not depression?  It is a possibility that I have written about and is a very big probable event.  Be as that may be we have many things going for us.

Internet

This fantastic information high speed freeway of information is destroying one of the three legs of the shadow government – the legacy main stream press.  Despite their once held monopoly the internet is slicing and dicing these wales of disinformation all for the benefit of the shadow government and the deep state as well.  So much so the President of the United States has directly called them out – and rightfully so – FAKE NEWS!

This is directly responsible for the rise in liberty minded citizens who now have a voice equal to those of the main stream press.  This blogger doesn’t have the reach but I’m only one upon tens of thousands creating written or video all along the internet spectrum.  Simply put – main stream legacy press is dying by thousands upon thousands of cuts.  This has the simultaneous effect of neutering the shadow government and deep state by the sterilizing effect of truth beaming directly on them.

As more and more of our citizens awaken pressure will not mount at the Federal level but will be levied – grass roots – within the States.  Such as the States pushing for additional constitutional amendments through article V in order to shrink and decentralize the Fed’s.  A States rights renaissance or rebirth along with cities and counties advocating their rightful place bringing our constitutional republic ever closer to the people.  Don’t think for a second this will occur without a fight!  A slug fest for sure as long as the internet remains relatively free from censorship liberty will prevail.

Energy

• The Unsung hero of energy – energy efficiency – from LED light bulbs to gas sipping autos – the U.S. has reduced its energy foot print significantly.  Businessmen all look to reduce their costs and one place is in energy usage.  Despite any ups or downs of the economy this trend is here to stay will only improve over time. 
• Fracking…Love it or hate it drillers are becoming more and more efficient in its usage extending the life of existing fields along with known shale deposits.  This has driven natural gas prices down to low prices along with moderating the price of oil.
• The development of thorium molten salt nuclear power.  Amazing as it is this is it is an old technology.  The reason it was displaced by the so called standard reactor was not electrical generation but the by products for nuclear bomb making [world domination].  Thorium is unusable for bomb making and as such is shunned by the major powers.  As energy usage has sky rocketed world wide development of thorium power is being ramped up significantly.  Thorium is very plentiful so much so it is not considered a strategic mineral.  Once developed and standardized a new thorium molten salt reactor will be at the same cost as a coal fired plant.  This will moderate significantly the cost of electricity bringing up point four.
• Coal liquefaction…Conversion of coal into liquid fuels technologies that have been around since WWII with many countries such as South Africa using the process for decades.  What is required is energy – such as abundant nuclear power to make the conversion process profitable.

The cross current of technology, energy independence and world domination overreach U.S. foreign policy is in transition from controlling ALL major and minor sea lanes to those who benefit American imports AND exports.  With energy independence manufacturing will have a rebirth turning America into an export nation.  So…America will become disinterested of other countries (unless they have nuclear weapons) outside of our major trading partners.  A new world disorder will occur as America will shun entanglements – out of cost [world domination] and non-necessity of trade – many regions such as the Mid East will fall to the way side.  America will not become isolationist will simply become far more selective in its use of foreign power whether political or militarily. 

DYI

Dogs

Chasing Cars

September 25, 2017

Bubble Mindset

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

So the mindset, I think, goes something like this. Yes, market valuations are elevated, but, you know, low interest rates justify higher valuations. Besides, there’s really no alternative to stocks because you’ll get what, 1% annually in cash? Look at how the market has done in recent years. There’s no comparison. Value investors who thought stocks were overpriced in recent years have been wrong, wrong, and wrong again, and even if they’re eventually right, being early is just the same as being wrong. The best bet is just to invest in a passive index fund for the long-term, and ignore the swings. There’s really no alternative. 

What’s notable about this mindset is its excruciating reliance on three ideas. The first is that low interest rates “justify” rich valuations. The second is that market returns simply emerge as a kind of providence from a higher power, perhaps magical gnomes, or the Federal Reserve if you like, and that those returns have no particular relationship to valuations even in the long-term. The third is that market returns during the recent advancing half-cycle are an accurate guide to future outcomes.

 DYI:

Remember the required statement placed on all mutual fund material?  Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.  The majority of the investing public along with many of the so called professional investors become swept up in chasing past returns no different than dogs who chase cars.  The market measured by the Shiller PE¹⁰ is at the nose bleed level – as of 9-25-17 – of 30.55 along with a minuscule dividend yield for the S&P 500 at 1.89%; foretelling that future estimated average annual returns will be dismal at best and very possibly negative over a 10 to 12 year outlook.  Place your hard earned cash into 100% invested in stocks across the board or managed and/or index fund go to sleep like Rip Van Winkle for the next 10 years; awaken your average annual return will be in the 0% - 1% neighborhood.

Estimated 10yr return on Stocks

Using 5.4% as the historical growth rate of dividends and 4.0% as the ending yield.

Starting Yield*---------return**
1.0%-----------------------(-5.7%)
1.5%-----------------------(-1.7%) 

You are here!
2.0%------------------------1.3%
2.5%------------------------3.8%

3.0%------------------------5.9%
3.5%------------------------7.8%
4.0%------------------------9.4%
4.5%-----------------------10.9%

5.0%-----------------------12.3%
5.5%-----------------------13.6%
6.0%-----------------------14.8%
6.5%-----------------------15.9%

7.0%-----------------------17.0%
7.5%-----------------------18.0%
8.0%-----------------------19.0%

*Starting dividend yield of the S&P500-**10yr estimated average annual rate of return. 

Back to Professor Hussman:  Dogs chasing cars!   

 In effect, stocks are viewed as good investments because they have been going up, and the evidence that stock prices will go up is that stock prices have gone up. Every additional market advance makes stocks look even better, based on past returns. Indeed, the more extreme valuations become, the more convinced investors become that extreme valuations don’t matter.

Will the Real Valuation Driven Long Term Investor

Please Stand Up!

The majority of investors say they are long term investors as if this magical potion will bring them to the promised lands of high returns.  If there is no forethought to valuations then luck will be the major reason for future returns whether dismal or dazzling.

 

Accumulation Phase   

For example a 30 year old is no longer in his starving 20’s has extra coinage to invest on a dollar cost basis into his favorite mutual fund beginning in the year 1970.  Every month automatically (prearranged dollar amount) from his checking account goes into the fund.  Looking at the above chart his starting valuation was some what high, and then a big drop off, due to the 1973 to 1974 market smash. 

Our diligent investor marches on investing a portion of his paychecks every month with valuations now at jaw dropping bargains.  He is older earning a larger paycheck – plus the inflationary 1970’s – he increases the monthly allotment and is repeated many times over all through the disinflationary 1980’s, the booming 1990’s and the first half of the roller coaster 2000’s, all the way till 2005 at age 65 when he retires.  So all and all, his investing history has been positive.  The first 24 years (1970 – 1994) out of 35 - dollars were invested at reasonable or bargain prices.

Spending Phase

Our gray haired friend has entered the spending phase instead of dollars leaving his checking account he instructs the fund to redeem a monthly amount into his checking account.  The Mutual Fund Association advocates 4% redemption of his market balance per year then dividing by 12 to arrive at his monthly stipend.  This is viewed as a safe percentage all weather (valuations) percentage with high odds of never running his account to zero.  Under normal conditions – valuations at reasonable levels [less than 0.5 standard deviation above the mean] 4% withdraw is most definitely a safe number.  However, our gray hair – and this blogger is one of them – results will NOT be as pleasant as his accumulation phase due to excessive valuations causing one massive drop off with his 4% withdraw chewing up increasing amounts of his principal.  If it were not for the Fed induced bull market quantitative easing runaway money printing high speed bullet train of 2009 to present day he would have been shocked by a massive drop off of principal value.  So far his experience in the spending phase has been mixed.

I’ll Ask Again

Will the Real Valuation Driven Long Term Investor

Please Stand Up!

The moral of the story is valuations.  Higher the valuations the less you want to hold or purchase stocks AND for those in the spending phase will have to live with a lower percentage withdraw [2% at current valuations is a safe number].  The flip side purchase or hold a much higher percentage in stocks when valuations are low AND those in the spending phase could very easily withdraw up to 6% per annum without undue risk to principal.

This is where my valuation driven model portfolio of four diverse (uncorrelated) asset allocation model comes into play.  In other words there is a bull market among at least one of the assets (almost) all of the time.  What if our soon to be retiree in the year 2000 switch out of stocks due to insane valuation (4 standard deviations above mean) to gold that was on the give-away-table, then in 2005 began selling off one or two coins per month to augment his Social Security payments?

 9-1-17

Updated Monthly

Secular Market Top - Since January 2000

  From High to Low

+356.6% Gold

+213.0% Transports

+162.3% Utilities

+  90.9% Dow
+  84.5% Oil

+  68.2% S&P 500 

+  64.3% Swiss Franc's  
+  58.0% Nasdaq 

+  58.0% 30yr Treasury Bond 

Even with gold’s market fall off since August 2011 – our gray hair – purchased at give-away-prices all below $300 dollars per ounce back in the year 2000.  From mixed results to one happy 77 year old camper!  Or what of our new accumulator 30 year old who back then avoided stocks due to insane valuation and purchased precious metals mining stocks purchased at give-away-prices?  Reducing his exposure as this asset category’s valuations jumped; then moving a portion of his profits from gold – into stocks when valuations improved during the 2008 – 2009 sell off.  Where are we today?

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 9/1/17

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 60%

78% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

22% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VGPMX

 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

If anyone thinks this is a site for fast buck speculative moves you have the Dividend Yield Investor ALL WRONG!  These changes are more akin to watching grass grow or pouring molasses on a cold winter day.  Slowing moving into or out of our four assets as valuations change leaving the emotions behind – and boy do they get in our way – allowing others to speculate.

I’ll Ask Again

Will the Real Valuation Driven Long Term Investor

Please Stand Up!

  DYI

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Demassification

 Of

Nation States

Flags, Symbols, and Statues Resurgent As Globalism Declines

As the forces of globalism retreat after numerous defeats in the United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, and other nations, there is a resurgent popularity in national, historical, and cultural symbols. These include flags, statues of forbearers, place names, language, and, in fact, anything that distinguishes one national or sub-national group from others. The negative reactions to cultural and religious threats brought about by the manifestations of globalism – mass movement of refugees, dictates from supranational organizations like the European Union and the United Nations, and the loss of financial independence – should have been expected by the globalists. Caught up in their own self-importance and hubris, the globalists are now debasing the forces of national, religious, and cultural identity as threats to the “world order.” 

Around the world, statues of historical figures are being defaced and removed by contrarian groups who bear ethnic or political grudges. They include Confederate General Robert E. Lee throughout the United States, Captain James Cook in Australia, Father Junipero Serra in California, Christopher Columbus in New York, King Kamehameha in Hawaii, Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, and Marthinus Pretorius and Paul Kruger in South Africa. 

This all represents the trend toward dissolution of the nation-state. 

Nation-state flags, monuments of past political and religious figures, and other nation-state symbols are not only being questioned but, in some cases, ignored or cast aside completely. The world is “going tribal” and there is little the governing globalists and elites can do about it. They brought this situation upon themselves with their aloofness and ignorance. 

The UN General Assembly will soon welcome 193-member state leaders to its plenary session in New York. 

The UN may do well to plan for future sessions at which 300 or more member-state leaders, from Åland to Zanzibar and Baltistan to Mthwakazi, converge on New York.

DYI:
Peak Empire   

Empires collapse under the financial weight bearing the cost of world domination – control – is impossibly expensive.  The U.S. is at the top of the mountain with no other direction but down leaving behind its peak empire receding slowly from the world stage.  Leaving behind the American empire’s status quo; allowing tribal groups within nations the real possibility of forming new countries.

American world Dollar dominance is drawing to a close as the list grows for countries such as the newest Venezuela, throwing off the reserve currency petro-dollar chains.  However, this will not be the demise of the U.S. nor will it cause hyper Weimar inflation.  What is happening is an acknowledgement of America’s debt – [government, corporate & private] - and spend economy has debased her currency fewer countries wish to hold a depreciating asset.  This is why the barbarous relic – GOLD – reported for years in the alternative media and now is a stable among many main stream media outlets – is being implemented by Russia and China.

Also the Bretton Woods Accords that was signed by the Allies in 1944 American’s would provide the majority of the cost and man power in securing Europe’s defense plus protecting all sea lanes and accepting unlimited imports.  The idea behind this was obvious who ever controls the sea lanes controls the world – unfortunately this had a tragic flaw.  In order for countries to earn dollars they needed to under cut, first based on price then quality, gutting our industrial base.  These countries were simply playing by American rules much to our demise.  With the rise of Trump he has said enough is enough the rules must change.  This would have happened eventually – no matter who was President – as the U.S. simply can no longer afford to play the world domination game.

 Technology 

Alvin Toffler author of the book Future Shock coined the phrase “demassification” known more commonly as decentralization; technology is a disruptive force not only for industry but government itself, empowering the individual.

Instantaneous and ultra low cost communication – internet – has reduced significantly employment migration among 1^st and 2^nd world countries.  Business movement with people has been supplanted – except for top management – by advanced technology.  This increases the tribal effect within regions of various countries.  Catalonia a region within Spain since the 1990’s has been advancing their desire to form their own country.  The U.S. is not immune as our cultural regions become more pronounced due to lessened internal migration.

California from time to time has flirted with the idea of succeeding from the union.  What is more telling is the States movement to invoke article V calling for constitutional amendments - such as the Balanced Budget Amendment - with the sole purpose to “reign in” or decentralize the Federal government further solidifying our cultural nations.                  

Energy

• The Unsung hero of energy – energy efficiency – from LED light bulbs to gas sipping autos – the U.S. has reduced its energy foot print significantly.  Businessmen all look to reduce their costs and one place is in energy usage.  Despite any ups or downs of the economy this trend is here to stay will only improve over time. 
• Fracking…Love it or hate it drillers are becoming more and more efficient in its usage extending the life of existing fields along with known shale deposits.  This has driven natural gas prices down to low prices along with moderating the price of oil.
• The development of thorium molten salt nuclear power.  Amazing as it is this is it is an old technology.  The reason it was displaced by the so called standard reactor was not electrical generation but the by products for nuclear bomb making [world domination].  Thorium is unusable for bomb making and as such is shunned by the major powers.  As energy usage has sky rocketed world wide development of thorium power is being ramped up significantly.  Thorium is very plentiful so much so it is not considered a strategic mineral.  Once developed and standardized a new thorium molten salt reactor will be at the same cost as a coal fired plant.  This will moderate significantly the cost of electricity bringing up point four.
• Coal liquefaction…Conversion of coal into liquid fuels technologies that have been around since WWII with many countries such as South Africa using the process for decades.  What is required is energy – such as abundant nuclear power to make the conversion process profitable.

The cross current of technology, energy independence and world domination overreach U.S. foreign policy is in transition from controlling ALL major and minor sea lanes to those who benefit American imports AND exports.  With energy independence manufacturing will have a rebirth turning America into an export nation.  So…America will become disinterested of other countries (unless they have nuclear weapons) outside of our major trading partners.  A new world disorder will occur as America will shun entanglements – out of cost [world domination] and non-necessity of trade – many regions such as the Mid East will fall to the way side.  America will not become isolationist will simply become far more selective in its use of foreign power whether political or militarily.  These trends will magnify the splitting off of many countries cultural regions.   All of this is within the time table of geopolitics which is to say this trend will increase proportionally year by year over the next two decades.

DYI