U.S.
Dollar
Assault
The Most Important Chart in the World Is Getting Uglier By the Day
As you can see the $USD broke out of a massive 40 year falling wedge pattern. This initial breakout has failed to reach its ultimate target (120) and is now rolling over for a retest of the upper trendline in the mid-to low-80s.
Put simply, this chart is telling us that the $USD is going to be collapsing in the coming months.
The implications of this are going to be tremendous for the financial system. US corporate profits will be increasing particularly for large multi-national companies. Emerging Markets will outperform.
And most importantly, the $USD's collapse is going to be like rocket fuel for inflation trades.
Venezuela Suspends Trade In U.S. Dollars
Venezuela has told oil traders it will no longer accept or offer U.S. dollars in payment for crude oil and fuels, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing sources familiar with the developments. As a result, traders have started converting dollars into euros, and PDVSA’s foreign partners operating in the country may have to switch to euros as well.
The decision comes on the heels of fresh U.S. sanctions that effectively aim to tie Caracas’ hands with the issue and sale of new debt, which increases the danger of it defaulting on existing loans. As a counter move, Caracas is moving to a combination of yuans, Russian rubles, and euros to cushion itself against the sanctions. PDVSA, according to the plan, will do half its oil and fuel trades in currencies other than the greenback.
Venezuela’s Energy Minister Eulogio del Pino said PDVSA is about to start invoicing oil sales to India in rupees, and to China in yuans. Although Russia was not mentioned, an official from the energy ministry said the state oil company does hope to sell Russia oil for rubles.DYI: Down goes the dollar up goes the price of gold – so goes the premise. Here at DYI I have no idea the direction of precious metals prices especially in the short term except to say “they will fluctuate!” However, the longer term perspective as measure by the Dow/Gold Ratio gold is slightly below the long term average creating a reasonable bargain.
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Dow/Gold Ratio as of 9-15-17 is 17 to 1 (rounded)
Which way will gold or the precious metals
mining company’s prices move DYI has no idea they are ripe for at least a
reasonable sized position. If prices
move downward a more lucrative position can be had due to our outsized cash
horde or if prices move up smartly gains will be harvested waiting for stock
and bond markets to correct.
DYI’s averaging formula has kick us out of
stocks and long term high grade corporate/Treasury bonds – and rightfully so –
due to prices above their long term average (since 1871) to insane levels. The wait has been long as central banks
around the world have moved interest to sub atomic low levels or as in Europe
to negative levels. This has energized
market participants – in their zeal for yield – to buy anything with a higher
interest rate pushing prices to the moon.
In the end Mr. Market will have his way with rates normalizing. Of course a funny thing happened along the
way to the forum; since interest rates have been way below the average they
will shoot way past the average before resting around their long term average
(10 year T-bonds at 4.58%).
Updated Monthly
AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 9/1/17
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
DYI
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