The
Great
Wait
September 4, 2017
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
The main thing to remember is that a valuation multiple is nothing but shorthand for a proper analysis of long-term discounted cash flows.
Whatever the fundamental one uses in a valuation ratio, one should have reasonable confidence that it behaves as a “sufficient statistic” for the very, very long-term cash flows that investors can expect to be delivered into their hands over time.
DYI: DYI’s averaging formula uses reliable
statistics going all the back to 1871 for returns delivered to investors. Simply put, whether it is precious metals
mining companies, broad based U.S. stocks – index funds – or long term high
quality corporate or Treasury bonds – index funds – DYI’s formula increases or
decreases proportionally as valuations increase or decrease from their
respective long term average.
In practice, I prefer MarketCap/GVA, but if one wishes to use the CAPE, one should also adjust it for the embedded margin.
I’ve observed this before, and it’s essential to repeat it again: if interest rates are lower because likely future growth in deliverable cash flows is also lower, then no valuation premium is justified at all.
On the measures we find most tightly correlated with actual subsequent market returns across history, the S&P 500 is now between 150% and 170% above valuation norms that have been approached or breached over the completion of every market cycle in history, including the most recent one.
DYI: The market today as measured by dividends
is 126% above its long term average – (52 PD – 23 PD) / 23 PD x 100 =
126%. DYI’s averaging formula stops out
(0% in stocks) at 100% above the market average. After a 13% decline our model portfolio would
remain at 0% in stocks with the market 100% above its long term average measured
by dividends. What does this mean? An insanely overvalued market with projected
future returns that will be sub atomically low or very possibly negative over
the next 10 to 12 years.
[PD is price to dividends. 52 PD is today’s dividend yield at 1.91% or 1
/ 1.91 = 52 PD (rounded). 23 PD is the
average (4.37% since 1871)]
Allowing for a lesser retreat ending about 25% above those norms, I fully expect the S&P 500 Index to lose between 50-63% as this speculative episode unwinds. Even at that point, future prospective equity market returns are likely to be lower than investors have historically enjoyed.
DYI: John Hussman is on the right track for the
market to mean invert from secular top to secular bottom stocks will decline
67% based on dividends. The question of
course will it be done in one fell swooped as it did from 1929 to 1932; the
inflationary 1970’s market roller coaster or Japans ultra long term bear
market.
Nikkei 225 as of 9-3-17 is at 19,508
DYI: Side note:
Foreign markets are not part of my model portfolio however DYI does make
comments – it is my opinion that Japanese stocks bottomed out in 2009. Stock ownership by individuals in Japan in
2009 was less than 3% signifying a classic bottom. When the U.S. market corrects, this will bring
down the Nikkei as well, creating another excellent entry point for the
prepared investor.
“Well, valuations may matter eventually,” some investors may be thinking, “but timing is everything.” I’ll offer my view about that notion.
The only timing that matters is the action one takes during the space between the emergence of an opportunity and the point that it goes away.
As one of the few observers to anticipate both the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 market collapses, with a constructive shift in-between, tell me how the criticism that I was “too early” actually mattered by the time those declines wiped out the entire total return of the S&P 500, in excess of Treasury bills, all the way back to May 1996, and June 1995, respectively.
For most investors, “timing” wasn’t their friend at all, because they squandered the opportunity to take action at any point of overvaluation.DYI: Bingo – spot on – direct hit! DYI has been negative regarding future returns since late 2012 working on 4 years plus a few months. I call this Fed induced speculative episode THE GREAT WAIT! Once this market mean inverts from secular top to secular bottom Treasury bills will have out performed the market since 1998! A four or five year wait for the market to peak and begin its long awaited bear market to begin is a blink of an eye for a value player.
So….Hang
onto your hats and your cash better values are ahead!
Updated Monthly
AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 9/1/17
DYI
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