Disclaimer

Oil Indicator

Petro-States Face Extinction

Petro-states urgently need to begin diversifying their economies, shifting away from oil production, or else they face financial risks in the years ahead. 

That conclusion comes from the IEA’s new report, “Outlook for Producer Economies,” which warns that a changing energy system threatens the economies of oil-producing countries. The threat comes in multiple forms, both on the supply side and on the demand side. 

Energy efficiency, electric vehicles and other technological changes raise questions about peak demand. Climate regulation also threatens to destroy consumption. On the supply side, U.S. shale could capture a bulk of any demand increase that might have otherwise been met by other oil producers.

These factors pose serious threats to major oil producers, and the IEA focused on six countries: Iraq, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Venezuela. All of those countries are significant oil producers and are overwhelmingly dependent on oil revenues to finance their budgets.

DYI:  I’m not going as far as the author of the article suggests in forecasting oil/gas producing countries early demise due do demand destruction.  Socialism/communism has produced wildly unsustainable welfare state budgets has dropped these countries to their knees [except Russia/UAE].  I do agree these countries need to diversify their economies to deal with the normal price vacillations for oil and gas.  That would simply be good common sense which is in short supply among the names of the countries listed in the article.  Plus these countries are massively corrupt – THIEVES – who steal today and never think about the long term consequences.

Oil and Gas are in a Secular Bull Market 

The last major find for oil and gas goes all the way back to 1957 in Alaska and North Sea find dating back to 1969.  Since then there have been other discoveries but nothing compared to any of its previous finds.  What has been happening is existing finds have had their life extended due to new technologies such as horizontal drilling and of course fracking.  Needless to say the days of sticking a straw in the ground and out comes the bubbling crude is long gone.  Finding additional supplies is far more difficult.  It is either drilling in deep water; or in extreme Arctic cold weather. This reduced supply produces higher prices in an extreme roller coaster fashion.

Oil as of 10/30/18

$66.59

The Chart above is very instructive as to the roller coaster for oil prices and its cousin gas prices. The first discovery of oil goes to Edwin L. Drake in Titusville, Pennsylvania on August 28, 1859 drilling down 69 feet.  And as the expression goes – the rest is history – during the early days of easy oil finds all over the U.S. and eventually the world played out in 1973.  Oil prices leaped as OPEC squeezed supply driving prices higher.  This put the Alaskan and North Sea oil into high gear with a massive build out with pipelines and super tanker ships thus once again driving oil down to a second bottom in 1998.  That marks the end of easy to find and deliver oil and gas to market.

Supply – Burgeoning Countries – Efficiency – Alternative Energy

The days of easy to find oil has long since gone a world wide dynamic of burgeoning countries of Asia with 4.5 billion people all who want a piece of the good life; which is delivered by fossil fuels.  This goes without saying a major demand push from Asia has pushed up the price of crude [despite fracker's short term drop in 2016].  Higher the price clever engineers dream up more and more ways of using less oil/gas delivering the same standard of living AND the creation of alternative energy such as wind, solar, tidal wave etc.  So far those desiring a better life are demanding more than the engineers are able to use more efficiently or creation of alternatives.  Until technology overwhelms demand fossil fuels will remain in a roller coaster bull market.  In DYI’s opinion the world price of oil/gas remains in a secular bull market.

 DYI’s Oil Indicator 

 10/1/18

Updated Monthly

Oil Prices: 
10/01/13....$105.65

09/28/18......$81.71   

Down 23%(rounded)
(oil prices approximately five years earlier due to weekends & holidays)
ANS West Coast prices   

 OIL INDICATOR:  Positive  Oil indicator will remain positive until it's rise is greater than 75% from five years earlier.

Oil prices are well known for their volatility in the short term, longer term due to dwindling reserves energy prices are in a secular bull market.  Technologies such as fracking will extend the life of oil fields but major new discoveries arrive at a snails pace far slower than the world's growth.  

As long as prices rise in a slow and orderly pace our economy can adjust to those changes, however if prices spike (international tensions, war etc.) high energy costs behave as a massive deflationary tax. This will send our economy tumbling down and very possibly the U.S. stock market.

If oil prices rise greater than 75% from five years earlier, investors at that time should shift their portfolio geared towards deflationary times.  This would be an oil indicator as negative.

If oil prices rise from five years earlier less than 10% or drop then the inflationary play is in effect; a positive for economic growth along with possible higher stock prices.

Where to find five year earlier oil prices?  Alaska Department of Revenue    

Oil indicator positive                 
  5%  High-Yield Corporate Bonds
10%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M.'s
65%  Small Caps
  0%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Oil indicator negative
  5%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M's
10%  Small Caps
65%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Vanguard Funds

REIT's
REIT Index Admiral  VGSLX

Energy
Energy Fund  VGENX

Precious Metals (P.M.'s)
Global Capital Cycles  VGPMX

Small Caps
Small Cap Value Index Admiral  VSIAX

High-Yield Corporate Bonds
High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund VWEHX

Long Term Government Bonds
Long-Term Government Bond Index Admiral  VLGSX

Disclaimer

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.     

  DYI

Bear

Market?

Peter Schiff: Catastrophic Stock Market Crash Will Wipe Out Your Standard of Living

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff says all signs are pointing to a catastrophic stock market crash and that the U.S. dollar and the average American’s standard of living will be the “biggest casualties.” 

Schiff, a financial broker and economist who correctly predicted the housing bubble and market crash of 2008, says it’s time to prepare for a global stock market crash after watching October’s market volatility that has seen the S&P 500 plunge 9.4 percent in three weeks. 

Per a recent interview with RT America, Schiff says the market is looking more and more bearish: 

["All the signs are already there. Look at what’s happening out there. The stock market is falling, 40 percent of the S&P is already in a bear market.  Look at homebuilders [DYI: off 30% peaked 1/16/18], the housing stocks, the financials, the retailers – all these are the same things that were happening in 2007 leading to that crisis"]  

Schiff, who accurately predicted the 2008 recession, told RT America.  

We don’t have much time left in this economic bubble if Schiff is correct.

DYI:  Insane market valuations, Feds increasing short term interest rates, our citizens and corporate America in debt up to their eyeballs!  What could possibly go wrong?  All sarcasm aside shoes are beginning to drop with one of my recession indicators – homebuilders Index symbol XHB – moving in a southerly direction.

DYI’s Recession Indicator Checklist:

• Two year Treasury notes invert ten year Treasury Bonds.

• Widening credit spread…Comparing yields between the 5 year T-note and Vanguard’s High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund [Junk bond fund].

• Falling stock prices…S&P 500 fifty day moving average below the two hundred day moving average.

• Falling Home Builders Index [symbol XHB]…Fifty day average below its respective two hundred day average.

• Purchases Managers Index:  PMI below 50.

So far all we have is recession sounding noise but nothing concrete.  The strongest noise is no doubt coming from the homebuilders index as they are now down from peak by 30%!  If prices stay down or continues to drop the fifty day average will arithmetically reprice itself within a few short weeks below its 200 day average throwing this indicator into recession territory.

The 2 year and 10 year Treasury securities are NOT inverted however the difference is only 27 basis points.  Anymore rate hikes by the Fed’s an inverted curve will happen throwing another indicator into recession territory.

Widening Credit Spread…So far just a bit of negative noise but not enough to throw this indicator into recessionary territory.

Falling stock prices…50 day average below 200 day for the S&P 500.  Negative noise with the average below the 50 day average but again not enough for recessionary territory.

Purchases Managers Index:  PMI below 50 is not even close at 59.8 for September 2018.

Conclusion:

Horns are not blaring recession; however it is becoming very interesting.  DYI’s model portfolio is sitting pretty with our 55% cash horde waiting for better values ahead.  The Great Wait just maybe becoming a bit shorter.  Will monitor and report as economic and valuations change.  Till next time!

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 10/1/18

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

55% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

37% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX

 8% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

 DYI

American

PROPAGANDA

Pittsburgh Shooting Hoax!

Active shooter drill planned for Thursday night in Squirrel Hill, Darlington Road to close

Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2018, 10:24 p.m.

Pittsburgh and Allegheny County police along with the FBI will hold an active shooter drill Thursday night in Squirrel Hill. 

The drill will take place from 8 p.m. to midnight at the Jewish Community Center, 5738 Forbes Ave. 

Darlington Road will be closed from St. Edmund's Way to Murray Avenue.Residents may notice a large police presence in the area. 

The exercise is closed to the public and the media. 

The exercise is to ensure the area is prepared and ready to respond in an active shooter situation. The exercise will include apprehending a shooter, evacuations and treating victims at the scene. 

At least 50 volunteers from the Squirrel Hill community and the Jewish Community Center staff will serve as role players for the exercise.

DYI:  What are the odds of an active shooter drill at the exact same location with the exact same scenario back in January of the same year?  Well….I put that in the zero to none category as this was another staged, faked, PROPAGANDA event for multiple agendas.  Those who have been following my blog and other outlets such as 153news.net or MilesMathis figured this fake event from the second it was reported on by the CIA controlled main stream press.

Miles Mathis:

We have seen that some in Government and the Jewish communities love nothing better than pretending to attack themselves. It has proved to be a fantastic way to generate sympathy . . . or it was in the past. I think a lot of people are starting to see through it, which is why the governors and families have had to turn up the volume. Average people yawn and change the channel, so they have to televise fakes on every channel, sometimes at a rate of two or three a week. Pretty soon they will have to hire people to come directly to your house and lecture you on these topics, to make you are properly propagandized. You will have to pass a test at the end.

As I stated there are multiple agendas for these staged faked events.  One overlooked agenda is a bailout [just as the banks were bailout] for the main stream press.  Since their highpoint in the 1960’s decade after decade they have seen a continuous drop off in readers, listeners or viewers of their so called news.

 

Since the repeal of the Smith – Mundt Act in 2012 it is now legal to create government sponsored [paid by the American taxpayer] news.  Who do you know reads Time, Newsweek or U.S. News – I’ve already gone to sleep – World Report?  Despite some bright spots for talk radio listenership is on the wane and when it comes to TV news their combined ratings have been in a death spiral for years.  So far our governors – as Miles Mathis describes them – all they know to do is a continuous doubling down with the same formula all through the main stream press with a propaganda barrage.  It is not working and thank God for that as more and more citizens either clicks on to some alternative entertainment or God forbid [from their point of view] an alternative news source.

DYI

American

PROPAGANDA

Newtown Conn.

Sandy Hook Hoax

Houses Paid Off

On

12 – 25 – 2009

Christmas Day!

[Video]

Sandy Hook Whole City Got FREE Houses! 

DYI:  How do you keep residents of Newtown Connecticut quiet about the Sandy Hook School staged faked mass shooting DRILL; no one shot; now one killed or wounded; yet promoted as real by the main stream CIA controlled PROPAGANDA spewing press???

Simple pay off the whole town's houses and signs a nondisclosure agreement!  The cost to the U.S. taxpayer close to ONE BILLION DOLLARS!

DYI

Videos

American

Propaganda

American Bull Crap [ABC] Fake News Network

Mom reveals how she survived deadly bank rampage [ABC News]

Cincy Hoax 9mm vs. Bear vs. Woman

Jeffersonian Girl

153news.net

Last week, the Fake News brought out the Woman shot 12 times at the Cincinnati 5/3 Bank Shooting HOAX. They couldn’t even wait a month! Just 3 weeks after she was shot, she’s all healed up and not so much as a cast on that arm they claimed was mangled by bullets. BTW, this is another Norman Cassiano style shooting, where no bullet hit an artery or organ! What are the odds?? It’s just amazing to hear these tall tales!

 DYI 

Endless War

Censorship & Propaganda

Women March on the Pentagon

About 1,500 women and allied men marched on the Pentagon on Sunday to demand an end to perpetual war and the funding of education, health care and other social needs instead. 

Stopping U.S. military involvement in Syria and Yemen and closing U.S. military bases around the world were among the demands voiced by the protestors who set out from Pentagon City and marched to the seat of American military power along a one-mile route. 

With the Pentagon in the background, the protestors shouted slogans and waved signs calling for, “No More War.” 

Among the speakers on a stage set up in a Pentagon parking lot, with the five-sided war headquarters in the background, was Jill Stein, the 2016 Green Party candidate for president. 

Stein told the crowd: “There’s not a lot of democracy going on out there because they’ve got the new McCarthyism going …  

The era of censorship, of warmongering and of political suppression is back big time.”

DYI:  Whether you agree or disagree [or don’t know who she is] with her politics – Jill Stein Green Party – her definition of the problem is completely on target [sorry for the military pun].  We live in an era of heavy censorship/propaganda at a level that I’ve never seen in my lifetime at the age of 64!  Add on endless wars with our troops being used as mercenaries for global natural resource corporations.  Where they need to protest is at Langley Virginia the home of the CIA it is time for this agency to have some heat brought to bear as they are the next level up from the Pentagon.    

Video

March on the Pentagon - Emma Fiala on The Corbett Report

Web Sites

Facebook Censorship Strikes Again, Women March on the Pentagon & Rick Sanchez Joins RT

DYI:  Went through 10 pages of a Google search not one main stream press – except Russia Today – reported the march on the Pentagon.  Censorship is in full bloom!

DYI

Girls will be Girls?

Not so Fast!

High School Girls Admitted to Making False Sexual Assault Accusations Against a Male Student Because They "Just Don’t Like Him"

Seneca Valley School District in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is facing a lawsuit from a former male student who was forced out of school—and investigated for sexual assault—due to a series of false accusations made by female students. 

The false allegations were life-derailing for the accused, who is referred to as "T.F." in the lawsuit. On October 3, 2017, one of the girls told other students that T.F. had sexually assaulted her at a pool; a Seneca Valley guidance counselor overheard the accusation, and reported it to Childline, the state's child abuse prevention agency, as required by law. T.F. was swiftly charged with indecent assault and harassment, and received six months of probation as part of a plea deal.

DYI:  Hopefully Reason Magazine will do some digging into the ins and outs of this plea bargain.  Many times people will take the plea deal as battling it out in court becomes a crap shoot for a far worse deal.  This goes double when the individual in this case is actually innocent only to be proven months later.

Months later, in March of 2018, T.F. was again falsely accused, according to the lawsuit. Another girl invited him over to a house party; a few days later, she told the school guidance counselor that T.F. had broken into her home and sexually assaulted her. The lawsuit claims she was coached by T.F.'s first accuser. As a result of this accusation, T.F. was charged with assault and criminal trespassing 

. He was removed from school in leg and wrist shackles, and spent 9 days in juvenile detention. 

By the end of the summer, the conspiracy against T.F. was unmasked: other students came forward with Snapchat messages that contradicted the claims of the "mean girls," who eventually admitted to lying. 

All charges against T.F. were dropped. 

But T.F.'s family is understandably distraught that the girls have suffered no consequences: neither the police nor the school district have taken any action against them, according to the lawsuit. And so the family is pursuing legal action against the girls' parents, the school district, and the district attorney. 

From the school's perspective, it had no choice but to involve Childline when it learned about a possible sexual assault. And school officials can't punish any of the female students for their bad behavior outside of school. 

These are valid points, and it may very well be that the school did everything it was required to do. I'm making note of this case because of the national conversation we seem to be having about the existence of false sexual assault accusations in the wake of the Brett Kavanaugh hearings. False accusations may not be common, but they do happen. 

To pretend otherwise, as fourth-wave feminism's believe-all-victims mantra demands, is to ignore a large number of cases involving young people—often young black men—wrongly accused of sexual misconduct.

DYI:  Once the cat was out of the bag [false accusations] the police department quickly and rightfully so drop all charges.  But from there on those who knew the truth for were hoping this would all be forgotten and when it didn’t, due to the lawsuits, are now circling the wagons.  At the very least the Superintendent and Principal should be fired and in depth review of the detective during the first investigation resulting in a plea bargain.

I’m hoping this young boy’s family takes these lawsuits all the way to jury and rejects any plea deals.  This needs to be a matter of public record.  Hopefully they will win and asset-strip to their boxer shorts the school district [sorry taxpayers in Pennsylvania] and the families of these totally out of control girl(s).

DYI

Double

Bottom?

DYI:  I find this chart fascinating as it truly spells out when average John and Jane Doe were actually getting ahead financially on a macro basis.  From 1970 to 1982 the U.S. economy went through an inflationary bust devastating basic savers with CD’s at the bank or those purchasing long dated bonds.  The stock market was no savior either from 1966 to 1981 had a cumulative return of negative -10%.  Only those savvy enough who knew the relationship of the Dow/Gold Ratio sold their stocks or stock funds and purchase precious metal mining companies side stepping the secular melt down and continued to enjoy great gains through the 1970’s.

This was to be repeated from the year 2000 to 2012 with deflation as precious metals performed due to their zero counter party risk of default continuing the gains for those who sold off their stocks and stock funds purchasing precious metals mining companies or physical gold/silver.  From 2012 on these companies along with physical gold/silver went into a steep and brutal bear market only this past year has metal/miners fortunes have brightened.

Which way are basic stocks or gold/silver precious metals mining companies going?  My take is for a double bottom [see first chart above] just as happened in the 1970’s with a bounce off the bottom and then dropping its final leg down for a double bottom.  

In other words gold/silver and precious metals will continue to once again have high performance!  

That’s my take.  Always remember what the late Harry Browne author and inventor of the Permanent Portfolio said about fortune tellers - always beware.  The bottom line is all we know is that gold – depending on your measurement – is around fair or average value or slightly below.  Which way will things go from here?  Who knows?  I have my thoughts and other have theirs and they most likely will not be the same.

DYI

Model

Citizen?

Illegal Alien Detained While Delivering Pizza at NYC Army Base Arrested Again

NEW YORK — Pablo Villavicencio, an illegal immigrant and pizza delivery driver who gained national attention after being arrested by ICE in June has been arrested again for criminal mischief. 

Villavicencio, 35, was charged Monday with criminal mischief—a fourth-degree misdemeanor. Details surrounding the alleged criminal act were scarce.

In United States criminal law, mischief is an offense against property that does not involve conversion. It typically involves any damage, defacement, alteration, or destruction of property. ...Criminal mischief is usually a misdemeanor.

 At the time of his release following the Army Base incident: 

Judge Paul Crotty wrote: “Although he stayed in the United States unlawfully and is currently subject to a final order of removal, he has otherwise been a model citizen.”

DYI:  Model citizen’s judge don’t damage, commit defacement, alteration, or destruction of property all at the not so tender age of 35!  Thirty five years old?  This is not stupid act of a kid this is a full grown adult and not his first brush with the law [are there other unknown crimes?].  And I might add judge he is illegal which by definition is impossible for him to be an American model citizen.  I have a far bigger beef with Judge Paul Crotty than our illegal as his idea of the law is far different than the majority of Americans.

I’m fine with immigration in its basic concept but what are required is people who come here put more into the country than they take out.  Just as Colleges have recruiters for their sport teams we need recruiters for immigrants.  Recruiting the best and the brightest from around the world.  Do you think an open heart surgeon from Norway will end up on welfare?  Obviously not or a top flight engineer from Argentina?  What is the possibility of either one committing criminal mischief at the age of 35?  If you answered zero to none then we are the same page.  Canada has a point system for immigration so should the U.S.

Canada Points System. Six selection factors influence the assessment of the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) Canada point system. A score of 67 points or higher out of 100 is required for one to qualify to immigrate to Canada under the Federal Skilled Worker Program.   Canada’s point system in detail:  CanApprove

 DYI

Gold

Regaining its Lost Luster?

Dow/Gold Ratio as of 10/22/18

20.6 to 1

Gold Is Becoming Cool Again

The sentiment shift is still subtle, but it’s both real and widespread. After a few years of being ignored and/or dismissed as basically useless, gold is cool again, attracting positive press and increasing accumulation by big investors. 

Notice the WSJ appealing to investor animal spirits by touting the benefits of gold miner leverage: “Gold-miner stocks allow investors to double down on bets the gold price will rise. These companies have higher fixed-investment costs and can become much more profitable when gold prices climb. Many of these companies pay out hefty dividends, too.” 

This is the kind of thing that hasn’t been said of gold miners for a long time, because when the metal’s price is declining extreme leverage works in reverse to crush earnings. Now, however, the other, happier edge of the leverage sword is starting to cut. 

If history is any guide, end-of-cycle dynamics should now take over, with rising volatility sending capital pouring out of “risk-on” assets and into safe havens. So expect a lot more media accounts explaining the advantages of sound money and the benefits of miner leverage.

DYI:  Stocks measured strictly by the Dow/Gold Ratio are both historically in equilibrium.  The Dow Jones nor gold are neither overvalued nor undervalued [again measured only by the Dow/Gold Ratio].  Of course when stocks are measured by dividend yield or Shiller PE stocks are wildly over priced.  Gold is simply at fair value making it difficult to determine long term direction.  When stocks were riding high – and gold on the give-away-table back in the late 1990’s [see Dow/Gold Ratio chart above] making a prediction for advancing prices was easy.  Back then you were shooting fish in a barrel AND you would have had a few years to build a position in the miners and physical gold as well.

That was then this is now 

Today anything is possible especially with world wide central banks willing to prime the pump at a moments notice to jack up asset prices.  So…DYI’s model portfolio reflects this conundrum as our averaging formula states a 37% allocation to gold miners.

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 10/1/18

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

55% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

37% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX

 8% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

DYI