Friday, May 1, 2020

See my comment at the end regarding oil and gas companies!

5-1-20
Updated Monthly

Secular Market Top - Since January 2000

+118.8% Dow       
+181.4% Transports 
+174.7% Utilities

+ 98.2%  S&P 500
+118.5%  Nasdaq

+ 80.6%  30yr Treasury Bond

+485.5% Gold
  - 26.4% Oil
  +63.3% Swiss Franc's
    
From High to Low - Since Year 2000

+ 485.5% Gold
174.7% Utilities
181.4% Transports
+ 118.8% Dow
+ 118.5% Nasdaq
+  98.2S&P 500
+  80.6% 30yr Treasury Bonds
+  63.3% Swiss Franc's
-   26.4% Oil 

December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19               
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%  

Shiller PE10 4-1-20 is 24.40
S&P 500 dividend yield 4-1-20 is 2.32%
[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning of the month when I update.  It may or may not exactly be the first trading day of the month.]

It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 19 years later!

Oil

Oil and gas stocks are now at bargain prices with the current yield for most energy funds yields in the 6% to 6.5% range.  DYI's favorite mutual fund is as you would guess - Vanguard's Energy Fund symbol VGENX;  you may have your favorite as well.  If you have sector funds in your 401k an excellent place to dollar cost average into a high yielding fund.  Please note that if oil prices stay this low for more than a year then dividend cuts will occur.  However you are buying in at bargain levels that over the next 3 to 5 years returns will compensate for that possible risk.     

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