Monday, July 27, 2020

Deflationary Smash!
Coming to a Country Near You!
Unprecedented Recession Synchronization And What It Means
Considering the depth of the decline in global GDP, the massive debt accumulation by all countries, the collapse in world trade and the synchronous nature of the contracting world economies the task of closing this output gap will be extremely difficult and time consuming.  
This situation could easily cause aggregate prices to fall, thus putting persistent downward pressure on inflation which will be reflected in declining long dated U.S. government bond yields (30 year Treasury bonds).

DYI:  When this deflationary smash hits interest rates as measured by he U.S. 10 year Treasury bond will go negative!  Long dated Treasury bonds will fly upward with current yields nose diving back into the sub atomic range.  DYI’s bond formula – designed for compounding investors – has had a zero commitment to long dated bonds for several years and rightfully so.  Simply put for the compounding investor there is no sauce for the goose as in zero real growth of your dollars.  Don’t lose hope as DYI works through 3 major asset categories, stocks, long dated high quality bonds, precious metals – gold & silver – along with their respective mining company’s shares.  Cash – [short dated bills & notes] is our default or warm up pen for future deployment into our major three assets just mentioned.  Below is how DYI's asset categories [updated monthly] measure currently.   
Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 7/1/20

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
62% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
38% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.


  Till Next Time
DYI

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