Stagflation!

Fed Gives Up on Inflation as US Declines Ahead of November Elections

Lena Petrova Video

4 Key Points made in the Video.

1.)  The Federal Reserve is done fighting inflation and now is going to drop rates in an attempt to propel employment forward.  The most likely outcome is stagflation.

2.)  Treasuries no longer perceived worldwide as the premier safe haven investment.  Bond holders perception seen no different in quality than treasuries of France, Germany, and England or high quality corporate bonds.  Current interest expense now exceeds defense spending budget.

3.)  Federal Reserve Chairman indicated in typical Fed speak – I’ll translate – that the economy is doing far worse than reported.

4.)  The Dollar Index declined 10% after Chairman Powell’s statements.

Conclusion:  

Expect over the coming years…STAGFLATION!

Shadow Stats by John Williams click HERE to see the real inflation numbers!

Four areas that respond well financially in a stagflation environment to preserve your savings purchasing power.

Silver bullion

Gold bullion

Short term U.S. Treasuries 2 years or less.

Foreign currencies with ultra low inflationary economies – Swiss Treasury notes and bonds or savings accounts.

 Residential

Real Estate

Buyers on Strike?

Prices are still way too high. So the Buyers’ Strike continues.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Despite mortgage rates dropping to 6.09%, from 7.9% 10 months ago, sales of existing single-family houses, condos, and co-ops dropped further to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.86 million in August, according the National Association of Realtors today.

DYI:  Sky high residential real estate prices along with multiple economic indicators pointing to an economic slowdown or very possible outright recession more and more buyers are sitting on the sidelines. 

Loss of job fears, too high mortgage rates and nose bleed high prices potential buyers are either balking at the twin dynamics of high mortgage rates and excessively high prices plus those who fear job loss regardless of prices or interest rates will not commit to purchase.  Those who are already unemployed are obviously a non potential buyer adds plus discussed above residential real estate is being demand destructed.

As of 2023, the median household income in the United States is $80,610, which is a 4% increase from 2022. This is the first significant increase in real median household income since 2019. 

Median U.S. residential house price is $420,000 or 5.21 times gross income.  Of course an enlighten household will be maxing out their 401k at 15% thus their new gross income is $68,518 re-computing the R.E. to gross income ratio of 6.13! 

WAIT!  Not done yet; our potential home buyer knows savings is needed especially when you own a house – [plus all of the other potential folly’s life throws at you!] – is for maintenance saving rate of 5% of gross income.

Back to arithmetic this reduces their gross income to $65,092!

So…We are seeing house price to gross income at 6.45 to 1!  No mystery why we are seeing a buyers strike for home purchases and for good reason!

Anyone purchasing a house at this extreme (6.45 to 1) their entire life will be centered on the house all of the time.  Over time – [at least 10 years] – inflation will lesson the blow as their income moves up however it will take 20 years before the payment is in the bargain category.  Despite the best of intentions in this scenario is within a few short years the savings will stop out comes the credit cards and soon taking money out of the 401k to catch up with all of the bills and debt in a non stop vicious circle.

If you want a life; never purchase a house more than 2 times gross income.  For the vast majority this means saving for a down payment bringing the mortgage payment more in line with present income.  Once sub atomic low interest rates became the norm since the early 2000’s folks attempting to out save the sky rocketing price increases were in a never ending battle!  

So no doubt I get the dilemma!

Till Next Time                

Impending

Recession?

As of 9-21-2024

Gold $2,621

Copper $4.28

Gold to Copper Ratio is 613 to1 (rounded)

We frequently talk about the gold-silver ratio, but often the gold-copper ratio can be a more telling indicator when it comes to assessing the health of the economy. “Dr. Copper” is known for its ability to signal when the economy is ‘unwell’. As you will read below, the readings on the doctor’s chart are strong and this, combined with the gold price, tells us something many of us have been saying for years: we are about to head into some very tough economic times, indeed.

 

The gold-to-copper ratio is pointing to slower economic growth and increased safe-haven demand.

The gold-to-copper ratio is an account of how many ounces of copper it would take to purchase one ounce of gold and history shows that the past peaks of this ratio coincides with the crisis. Copper is often referred to as “Dr. Copper” for its uncanny ability to predict economic health. Copper is an industrial metal used in building and performs well during economic expansion. 

 

Gold, on the other hand, is a safe-haven asset, which investors turn to in times of financial and geopolitical crisis, which makes it an indicator of fear in the market.

 

Video

Why Your DOCTOR is ABSOLUTELY TERRIFIED

Dr. Suneel Dhand

Dr. Dhand’s 3 reasons why doctors and especially newly graduated doctors are so terrified to speak out especially during the COVID insanity!

1.)  Debt…The amount of debt that new doctors are riddled with is absolutely eye popping.  It’s off to work I go because I owe, I owe, I owe (based off of the nursery rhyme).

The average debt for medical school graduates in 2023 was $202,453 according to the Education Data Initiative. This includes debt from both graduate school and undergraduate pre-medical programs.  Standard repayment: $2,426 per month for 10 years!

2.)  Doctors are not critical thinkers…Their schooling is based upon their ability to memorize vast amounts of materials related to their field.  Once upon a time the big difference between a doctor and a nurse is the doctor was trained as a scientist; those days unfortunately are many decades gone.

3.)  Professional Agencies and Societies…Along with the licensing and medical boards all have massive conflicts of interest.  [I’ll go more than just one step further it has become MASSIVE FRAUD! (it’s time to take the gloves off!).

 

Gold’s

Next Move is Unknown

However

Here is an Interesting Chart!

Looming Recession...Fed's Lowers Rates...Will Residential Real Estate Prices Expand or Contract?

 

Residential

Real Estate Bubble?

All Matrixes Say YES! 

Average Annual Growth Rate 4.28% since 1988 for homes

CPI Average Annual Inflation 1988 to 2024 is 2.75%

$150,000 + 2.75% = $399,000

Case-Shiller Home Price today is $707,499

Cost above general rate of inflation is $308,499

Median Home Price to Medial U.S. Income

Price ($150,000) to Income ($34,017) in 1988 is 4.41 times income

Price ($707,499) to Income ($64,240) in 2024 is 11.01 times income!

 

Why

I Like

Dave Ramsey!

Dave Ramsey gets a lot of criticism from the more "sophisticated" side of the business/entrepreneur/investing community, who say that Dave's methods are too cookie cutter, too basic, not fast enough, etc. All they see is what's on the surface. But the important thing to remember is that Dave Ramsey is trying to take very advanced topics (building wealth, investing, etc.) and distill them down to a basic formula that the average person can understand.

The "financially savvy" people who criticize Dave seem to forget that the majority of the population is not financially savvy.

But when you peel back the curtain, you begin to realize that Dave is a world class businessman, entrepreneur, and investor. He just doesn't always show that side of him, because most people aren't built for that lifestyle, nor do they want that level of responsibility.

For the average person, avoiding debt and shoving their money into untouchable accounts is the best chance they have of building wealth. Much of Dave's audience can't even handle their credit card debt, and yet these "savvy" people on YouTube seem to think that such a person should take on MORE debt and manage a leveraged real estate portfolio.

People say that Dave is out of touch, but really his critics are out of touch.

The guy is a freaking genius and knows exactly what he's doing. Overall, Dave is performing a noble service to society by helping people gain control of their money and have some sense of sovereignty over their lives.

 

A Viro-LIE-gist’s Ode

Pseudoscientists Method

Of

Deception

In a lab of shadows, under dim light’s crest,

A scientist toils with a fraudulent test.

With a wink and a nod, he amplifies RNA ‘strains’,

Nucleotide sequences, free from provenance’s chains.

"Behold!" he cries, "A virus here lies!"

From non-specific data, the truth he denies.

With a magician’s flair, he takes a grand swab,

From an ‘infected’ soul, in a theatrical job.

He places the sample in cultures diverse,

A genetic soup mixed to make things perverse.

But nothing occurs in this merry charade,

So, he starves and poisons, in a grim masquerade.

The cells, once healthy, now wither and die,

He laughs with glee, and points to the sky.

"The cytopathic effects, a virus has wrought!"

But in truth, it’s antibiotics that cell death brought.

Circular reasoning, his faithful old friend,

Declares a virus at this farcical end.

No controls, no variables to compare,

Why seek the truth, when deception pays ‘fair’?

He skips the steps that real science holds dear,

In this farce of research, true findings disappear.

A dance with no balance, a play with no plot,

He crafts his own story, where facts matter not.

The whitecoats run algorithms, in a digital charade,

On a biological soup, a genetically messy parade.

Genomes stitched in a computing grand scheme,

Feather in the cap, for the circular reasoning team.

Through algorithmic smoke, no microbe’s found true,

A mythical mirage, from start to end view.

Onward he presses, with metals so heavy,

Stains cells in a process both crude and unsteady.

Electron microscopy, the grand final act,

He snaps fuzzy pictures, his ‘evidence’ racked.

With arrows he points, and loudly declares,

"A virus! A virus!" but reality glares.

So, here we conclude, this tale of deceit,

From fraudulent tests and fallacies replete.

Conjured and crafted by pseudoscience’s hand,

In shadows you dance, where falsehoods expand.

An ode to the folly, a tribute to lies,

In viro-LIE-gy’s realm,

where truth only dies.

Symptoms of Bull Market Top

Financial indicators:

1.)  High trading volume – panic buying.

2.)  Substantial buying of equity mutual funds by the public.

3.)  Shiller PE¹⁰ at historical highs with a low market dividend yield.

4.)  Mergers & Acquisitions and IPO’s calendar very robust.

5.)  Widening credit spreads.

6.)  Numbers of stocks making new highs are in decline.

Mass Psychology:

1.)  Investors use any reason to buy.

2.)  Making money in the markets appears to be easy.

3.)  Investors can’t wait to read their portfolio statements

4.)  Public infatuation with highly leveraged speculations.

5.)  The media describes the economy and markets as goldilocks (or any other word describing perfection).

6.)  Known contrarian investors are bearish – are seen as out of step with the new realities – or simply appear to be stupid or crazy.

7.)  Annuities and savings accounts are seen as dead investments.

 Market

Measurements

From High to Low - Since Year 2000

+ 764.8% Gold

+ 438.9% Transports

+ 335.3% Nasdaq

+ 284.4% S&P 500

+ 261.5% Dow
+ 260.3% Utilities
+ 187.3% Oil

+   85.4% Swiss Franc

+   35.3% 30yr Treasury Bonds

December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19               
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%  

Shiller PE10  8-1-24 is 36.43  112% above its mean (17.14) since 1871.

S&P 500 dividend yield 8-1-24 is 1.27%  70% below its mean (4.25%) since 1871.

[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update.  It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]

8-1-24

Stock-earnings yield 2.74%

Bond rate 4.94%

Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 55% of  present bond yield.

Dividend yield/bond yield = 26% of the present bond yield.

*Measured by valuations.  Year 2000 Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 with a scant S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.11%.  These high Shiller PE or low dividend yield has not been surpassed since 1871.

Stock-earnings yield (December 1999) was 2.26%.  High grade corporate bonds were in the 7% range in abundance.  This would push my EYC ratio - [see Ben Graham's Corner] - at 0.36!  Anything below 0.50 is in crash alert range.    

***************************

It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 20+ years later!

Stocks Remain Massively Overvalued; Lt. Term Bonds Yields are Dropping; Gold is Standout Value; Cash is Adding to our Return!

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 9/1/24

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

33% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

48% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 19% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........36.43
Bond Rate...4.94%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  

Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.61(rounded)

As of  9-1-24
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

9-1-24
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....36.43

Avg. PE10...........17.14

% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.