Dividend Yield Investor!

Sunday, September 27, 2026

S&P 500

Massively Overvalued

Currently 227% above Trend Line

Highest in Recorded History of the U.S. Stock Market!

As of 9-11-2026 the S&P 500 index closed at 7592 (rounded) with the regression trend line currently at 2361. For the market to reach the trend line this would require a drop of 69% (rounded). To reach the bulk of the historical lows that drop would require a market smash of 88% (rounded).

To describe today’s market is with one word and one word only: INSANE! Any wonder why Vanguard is advocating for those who are retired or soon to be (10 years or less) to purchase annuities!? Talk about one heck of a departure of simply buying VOO (S&P 500 ETF) and leave the driving to the market Gods! In other words pass off a huge amount of risk to an insurance company instead of the individual holding that valuation scorching hot potato.

Where to put your hard earned money? Below is my sentiment chart as a way of guiding your risk to reward for the asset categories I follow.

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!

Capitulation

Despondency

Max-Pessimism

Depression

Hope - F

Relief *Market returns to Mean - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!

Optimism - Swiss Treasury Securities and Silver - Gold

Media Attention

Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!

Thrill

Greed Crude Oil

Delusional

Max-Optimism Residential Real Estate - Stocks

Denial of Problem -BitCoin

Anxiety

Fear

Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate

Recession - Shallow

Deflation - None

Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices

None

Shallow

Moderate

Prominent

Extreme

Disclaimer

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

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Use this site at your own risk.

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Quotes

Social Security operates on a simple principal: "You give your money to politicians and they squander it on something else!"

Harry Browne

Fail-Safe Investing

"The only way to "Beat an Index" is to invest in a different and significantly greater - undervalued index."

The Dividend Yield Investor

"Men, it has been said, think in herds; it will be seen they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

Charles Mackay

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

"Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook."

Benjamin Graham

The Intelligent Investor

Estimated 10yr return on Stocks

Using 5.4% as the historical growth rate of dividends and 4.0% as the ending yield.

Starting Yield*---------return**
1.0%-----------------------(-5.7%)
1.5%-----------------------(-1.7%)
2.0%------------------------1.3%
2.5%------------------------3.8%

3.0%------------------------5.9%
3.5%------------------------7.8%
4.0%------------------------9.4%
4.5%-----------------------10.9%

5.0%-----------------------12.3%
5.5%-----------------------13.6%
6.0%-----------------------14.8%
6.5%-----------------------15.9%

7.0%-----------------------17.0%
7.5%-----------------------18.0%
8.0%-----------------------19.0%

*Starting dividend yield of the S&P500-**10yr estimated average annual rate of return.

DISCLAIMER!

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor,broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.