‘Perfect storm’ could lead to historic bursting of bond bubble, warns Harvard academic
“Looking back over eight centuries of data, I find that the 2016 bull market was indeed one of the largest ever recorded,” he wrote, using this chart for some perspective on the 36-year run bond run. “Only two previous episodes — the rally at the height of Venetian commercial dominance in the 15th century, and the century following the Peace of Cateau-Cambrésis in 1559 — recorded longer continued risk-free rate compressions.”
Schmelzing warned that, in the current environment, the combination of a steepening bond-yield curve, Fed tightening and inflation could have painful implications for investors. “By historical standards, this implies sustained double-digit losses on bond holdings, subpar growth in developed markets and balance-sheet risks for banking systems with a large home bias,” he said.
DYI: Who knows what direction interest rate will take in the short term? I certainly don't know. What we do know based on value and history rates are at sub atomic low levels with a far greater - not guaranteed - possibility of rising as compared to falling within a secular time frame. A global recession - I'm not predicting however it is a possibility with all of the world wide economic imbalances - would knock this short term scenario on its butt. A global recession would bring on deflation and hence LOWER RATES. Again - who knows?
My take on investing is to invest for the long term BASED UPON HISTORY AND VALUE. Simply buy more of what is undervalued and sell more what is overvalued working with four very distinct uncorrelated assets. Stocks - Long term Bonds - Gold(precious metals mining companies) - Cash(short term bonds). This will also make you a secular contrarian. A lonely place to be but very profitable over the long term.
Here are my secular driven sentiment indicator for these four( I've included 2 types of cash; money market funds and short term bonds) uncorrelated assets:
Market Sentiment
Capitulation
Only until recently as the Trump rally for stocks has propelled the Dow/Gold Ratio slightly BELOW its mean - not enough to move down my secular indicator to hope - however it was enough to increase our holdings of the barbarous relic using Vanguard's Precious Metals and Mining Fund to 23% of DYI's model portfolio. Gold sagged in price and stocks soared changing our asset allocation. Simple as that!
Cash - Money market funds or short term bonds - have been no friend to anyone except the historically value driven investor. The past 3 or 4 years as DYI has remained heavily invest in cash has over the short term lagged the market for stocks. Value is what drives Mr. Market over the long haul. This is why DYI has been stating that a run of the mill - nothing to write home about - decline for stocks in the magnitude of 45% to 60% is a damn near certain! At 45% would only place stocks back to their mean and 60% slightly undervalued! Cash is undervalued and stocks are overvalued.
Long term bonds only until recently have been massively overvalued. Today there is some value and this is why our model portfolio holds only 5%. My averaging formula determines the asset allocation based upon how far these assets are from their respective means. This is why stocks are at 0% - gold at 23% - long term bonds at 5%. All computed by our averaging formula. Cash is our default investment when the other three are not fully invested.
Updated Monthly
AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 1/1/17
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
DYI
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