Oil Indicator

Energy

Economics

House of Representatives’

 Hearings

How to get Central Asian Oil & Gas

 Before

Russia or China

Make no mistake: one of the main focuses of the U.S. government is to keep crude oil flowing, because without oil, civilization as we know it collapses. 

This is because the transportation that matters most – heavy-duty diesel-engine trucks (tractors, harvesters, 18-wheelers, cranes, construction, logging, etc), rail, and ships, don’t run on electricity.  They run on oil. This hearing focuses on Central Asia.  As Zeno Baran, director at the Center for Eurasian Policy at the Hudson Institute notes:  “On the United States energy interests in Central Asia, I think we see Central Asia energy infrastructure and resources once again becoming a source of competition for great powers”.

  Ms. ROS-LEHTINEN. The developments in Central Asia are of a tremendous significance to United States energy and security interests in the region. Since gaining their independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, United States focus on Central Asia has increased dramatically, as indicated by American efforts to protect the sovereignty, freedom and democracy of these newly independent states.

DYI:  Oh please who are we kidding?  Since the end of WWII I’ve seen very little effort or concern by the U.S. in spreading democracy or freedom.  What representative Ros-Lehtinen (R) of Florida should be talking about is America’s appalling past abuses of foreign countries instead of pandering feel good propaganda.   

Unfortunately, the region’s ability to profit from their energy resources in the past has been limited by Russia’s monopoly over transporting Central Asia’s oil and gas.

DYI:  Pipeline monopoly allows Russia to exert geopolitical control over their sphere of influence.  This has cut the U.S. out of this reserve necessary to propel our economy – hence all the negative Russian rhetoric.  This is simply an oil and gas grab as I’ve reported on previously.

By continuing to support diversification of pipelines, we will ensure a free flow of energy supplies to Western consumers and expand Central Asia’s economy through investment and development. We will ask our witnesses today to describe the range of U.S. energy concerns and energy interests in the region, in themselves, and their relationship to broader U.S. strategic objectives and needs. 

Russia and China have intensified their efforts to isolate the United States politically, militarily and economically from Central Asia. 

DYI: Russia is not only attempting to isolate the U.S. politically, economically and militarily this includes the Alliance [U.S. U.K. NATO EU] as well.  Russia’s end game is to have Europe AND China dependent upon Central Asian/Siberian oil and gas.  If successful, Russia will have the energy on/off economic switch for the economies of Europe and China. Russia will be able to dictate all macro geopolitical decisions for Europe and China.       

Moscow and Beijing were successful in convincing the Uzbek leadership that the United States sought to overthrow their government. This resulted in the closing of an American military base in Uzbekistan last year. Though unsuccessful, similar efforts were made by 

Russia and China to pressure Kyrgyzstan to close a strategic United States air base in its country that is currently being used in the counter-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan. 

DYI:  Counter-terrorism in Afghanistan??  What total B.S.!  The main reason we attacked was/is for the CIA to get the opium/heroin trade going.  Plus Afghanistan is a geopolitical pivot point for Central Asia.    

If we allow ourselves to be marginalized by Moscow and Beijing, we could lose our influence in the region and could fail in achieving our immediate security goals and protecting our energy interests in Central Asia.

DYI:  Our interest??  The hell if it is!  Representative Ros-Lehtinen (R) of Florida just come out and state categorically the U.S. is going to grab the oil and gas before Russia does!  Further, state that without low cost energy world economies will collapse; the U.S. will NOT be the exception.

Oil Indicator

3/1/17
Updated Monthly

Oil Prices: 
03/01/16....$34.49

02/28/17....$55.47   

UP 61%(rounded)
(oil prices approximately one year earlier due to weekends & holidays)
ANS West Coast prices   

 OIL INDICATOR:  Negative  Oil indicator will remain negative until it rise is less than 10% from one year earlier.

Oil prices are well known for their volatility in the short term, longer term due to dwindling reserves energy prices are in a secular bull market.  Technologies such as fracking will extend the life of oil fields but major new discoveries arrive at a snails pace far slower than the world's growth.  

As long as prices rise in a slow and orderly pace our economy can adjust to those changes, however if prices spike (international tensions, war etc.) high energy costs behave as a massive deflationary tax. This will send our economy tumbling down and very possibly the U.S. stock market.

If oil prices rise greater than 75% from one year earlier, investors at that time should shift their portfolio geared towards deflationary times.  This would be an oil indicator as negative.

If oil prices rise from one year-earlier less than 10% or drop then the inflationary play is in effect; a positive for economic growth along with possible higher stock prices.

Where to find one year-earlier oil prices?  Alaska Department of Revenue    

Oil indicator positive                
20%  REIT's
20%  Energy
20%  P.M.'s
40%  Small Caps
  0%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Oil indicator negative
  5%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M's
10%  Small Caps
65%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Vanguard Funds

REIT's
REIT Index Admiral  VGSLX

Energy
Energy Fund  VGENX

Precious Metals (P.M.'s)
Precious Metals and Mining Fund  VGPMX

Small Caps
Small Cap Value Index Admiral  VSIAX

Long Term Government Bonds
Long-Term Government Bond Index Admiral  VLGSX

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