Sunday, November 26, 2017

Inflation
10.84%
5 Year Avg. Annual Rate!

The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation.
It exposes why middle-class Americans — salaried workers who are given routine pay hikes and retirees who depend on annual increases in their corporate pension and Social Security payments — can’t maintain their standard of living. Plainly and simply, the Index shows that their income can’t keep up with their expenses, and it explains why they increasingly have to turn to the government for entitlements to bail them out.
It’s because salary and benefit increases are pegged to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which for more than a century has purported to reflect the fluctuation in prices for a typical “basket of goods” in American cities — but which actually hasn’t done that for more than 30 years.
The middle class has seen its purchasing power decline dramatically in the last three decades, forcing more and more people to seek entitlements when their savings are gone. And as long as pay raises and benefit increases are tied to a false CPI, this trend will continue.
The myth that the CPI represents the increase in our cost of living is why the Chapwood Index was created. What differentiates it from the CPI is simple, but critically important. The Chapwood Index:
Reports the actual price increase of the 500 items on which most Americans spend their after-tax money. No gimmicks, no alterations, no seasonal adjustments; just real prices.
Shows how our dependence on the CPI is killing our middle class and why citizens increasingly are depending upon government entitlement programs to bail them out.
Claims to persuade Americans to become better-educated consumers and to take control of their spending habits and personal finances.
The inaccuracy of the CPI began in 1983, during a time of rampant inflation, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics began to cook the books on its calculation in order to curb the increase in Social Security and federal pension payments.
But the change affected more than entitlements. Because increases in corporate salaries and retirement benefits have traditionally been tied to the CPI, the change affected everything. And now, 30 years later, everyone knows the long-term results. Ask anyone who relies on a salary or Social Security or a pension and he’ll tell you his annual increase in income doesn’t come close to his increase in expenses. What comes in is less than what goes out — a situation that spells disaster for average Americans.
DYI:
Governments the world over when unfunded liabilities, debts, and on going spending become so onerous money printing (digitally) is their last resort to maintain power.  The U.S. is at the beginning stage of the government’s end game of inflating off Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, along with playing the world domination game with our oversized military.  So far the Federal Reserve – it is a private corporation and there are NO RESERVES – has effectively pounded down interest rates far below the real rate of inflation enabling corporations and governments to pay debts with inflated dollars. 

There is an entity that is far more powerful than all of the world’s central banks combined.  His name is MR. MARKET!  Central banks can play this game far longer than most believe possible but in the end the real market – not the one manipulated by central banks – interest rates will rise.  Mr. Market – a short hand name for the REAL market place – in the end will drive rates upward catching up to the real inflationary rate and eventually effecting interest rates ABOVE the true inflationary rate.  It appears to me this has already begun with short term rates rising.  This will take years to push rates upward along with recessions pushing rates down temporarily for the duration of the economic downturn.
 Image result for 10 year treasury bond rate chart pictures   Yield as of 11-24-17
Interest rates as measured by 10 year Treasury Bonds topped out in September of 1981 at 15.32% and appears to have bottomed out in July 2016 at 1.50%.  When the next recession emerges; rates could very well fall below these historical lows temporarily then resume rising due to all of the money printing mentioned earlier.  Be as that may be, valuation and historically rates are at lows never seen before in U.S. history!  Helen Keller could easily see rates at sub atomic low levels ramping bond prices to the top of the mountain.

Market Sentiment

Smart Money buys aggressively!
Capitulation
Despondency
Max-Pessimism *Market Bottoms* Short Term Bonds
Depression MMF

Hope Gold
Relief *Market returns to Mean* 

Smart Money buys the Dips!
Optimism
Media Attention
Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!
Thrill
Greed
Delusional
Max-Optimism *Market Tops* U.S. Stocks
Denial of Problem Long Term Bonds
Anxiety
Fear
Desperation

Smart Money Buys Aggressively!
Capitulation
The name of the game is to purchase assets systematically as their valuation improves and sell off systematically as valuations decline.  Simple as that!  This is the essence of investing – as opposed to short term speculation – moving from DYI’s four diametrically opposed uncorrelated assets that are driven up or down over the long term by completely different economic forces.  Placing the preponderance of your dollars in the correct asset at the correct time competitive with the long term average rate of return – 10.2% since 1926 - on common stocks.

This is DYI’s goal is besting the long term return of 10.2%.  Not yearly as no one knows what markets will do in the short term; rolling 5 year returns is my benchmark.  Will this blogger be successful?  No guarantees and as my disclaimer states; this blog is for educational and entertainment only.  However, study my method and see if it passes the acid test of common sense. 
 Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 11/1/17

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 60%
73% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
25% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VGPMX
 2% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
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