Monday, February 12, 2018

What Just Change?

Though no one in the financial sector dares say this in public, the possibility that central banks can no longer sustain the illusion that risk has been vanquished is now front and center. If risk can't be corralled and quantified, then it can't be offset with any degree of confidence. If risk can't be corralled and quantified, it can't be offloaded onto unsuspecting others without the possibility that the system itself will collapse once the risk that's been piling up in the global machinery manifests.
DYI:  All of the world wide central banks can manipulate markets for only so long for the all powerful Mr. Market will have his way in the end, as world wide assets descend not just back to their mean but over shoot thus creating their respective average.

Has the U.S. stock and corporate bond markets put in their tops?  Definitely; I don’t know?  What I do know stocks and long term corporate bonds are so far beyond their respective means purchasing them makes no sense at all for a long term investor. 

However, long term Treasury securities especially the 30 year bond during any meltdown will be sought out as refuge from the carnage driving its price higher and it current yield lower.  The other safe haven will be gold and silver.  Silver is most likely the better play as the gold/silver ratio shows gold over valued [only in relationship to silver] and the precious metals mining companies remain reasonably priced despite their bounce off the bottom in 2015.
Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 2/1/18

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 60%
69% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
31% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VGPMX
 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
DYI

No comments:

Post a Comment