Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Gold
Get’s Respect
Price of Gold

gold as of 6/25/19
$1431.60
Gold bottomed December 16, 2015 at $1050.

"Somebody"

 Finally Cares About Gold

Lower real interest rates are gold price-positive. And not only are real rates falling right now, there’s currently $12 trillion in negative *nominal* debt trading worldwide right now: 
On Tuesday, Mario Draghi apparently went rogue on his fellow policymakers and launched into a swan song version of his all-time hit “Whatever it takes”. 
The next day, Jerome Powell at the Fed confirmed his willingness to ease and let the market know he stands ready to cut rates multiple times over the next year. 
That — plus a downed US drone patrolling the Iran border — poured gasoline on gold, which spiked as high as $1,410/oz, finally breaking free of the $1,350 ceiling that had blocked its advance for years. 
On the fundamental side, more and more experts and pundits are waking up to what PP has been saying all along: the central banks have painted themselves into a corner they don’t know how to get out of. So they keep using the one tool they have, hoping for a different outcome (and yes, perhaps pushing all of the wealth into the hands of the 0.1% *is* their desired outcome). 
But that strategy is based on perverted logic; it can’t be sustained. You can’t print prosperity. There’s only so far asset prices can rise while real wages remain stagnant. Housing prices can’t long stay above people’s ability to put food on the table, even with <3% mortgages. 
There’s a point at which more stimulus no longer has any effect. 
So it’s quite likely a nasty deflationary downdraft lies in our future. 
While this may initially cause gold to drop in price, the metal should fare much better than the pantheon of risk-assets falling from their current all-time bubble highs. 
As we often say in our live presentations: “In a bear market, expect to lose money. The trick is to lose a lot less than everybody else”.

 DYI:  Gold finally get’s respect.  There was a comedian by the name of Rodney Dangerfield who made an entire career out of how in life he never got any respect from anyone not even his wife.
Image result for rodney dangerfield pictures

Since gold peaked back in 2011 moving into its bear market not just dropped the price of gold this bear man slaughtered precious metals mining companies dropping up to and many past the 70% mark.  Ouch!

DYI’s Dow/Gold Ratio averaging formula was systematically taking money off the table as gold [plus the mining company shares] went on its meteoric rise.  Of course what little was left was smashed.  With the constant sale of gold shares during this time DYI’s averaging formula’s was buying stocks, long term bonds with the remainder in cash [short term notes].  What little was lost in gold was more than made up by those gains pushing us further and further into the profit zone.

So here we are today with our averaging formula’s producing our model portfolio.
   Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 06/1/19

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
68% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
32% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
**Tocqueville Gold Fund TGLDX is a pure play 100% junior gold mining gold fund.  Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25% in precious metal equities the remainder are companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines. 

In the short term DYI has no idea which way gold will move and by the way nor does anyone else.  They may seem clairvoyant you just hit upon an individual who made a great short term guess.  What we do know when measured by the Dow/Gold Ratio gold is trading just below fair value or more bluntly a bit of a bargain.  At average or fair value our model account would have 25% but since it is a bit of a bargain is why our account stands at 32%.  With the remainder 68% in cash DYI has plenty of fire power as valuations improve whether gold, stocks, or long term bonds.  Now that the fireworks have begun the Great Wait is now over as the bear has arrived.  Now we have the arduous task of waiting for valuations to improve slowing putting money back to work.
  DYI

No comments:

Post a Comment