Monday, June 17, 2019

It’s Different this Time?
NEVER

Analysts: 2019 Oil Demand Growth Could Be Lowest In Years

While OPEC and Russia are busy calibrating a possible extension to their production cuts, analysts and traders have turned their attention away from oil supply concerns and are focused again on faltering economic growth and a downbeat outlook on oil demand growth.
DYI:  Anyone who believes that the business cycle has been repealed by some government edict or has been subjugated to nonexistence through masterful strokes of genius at the Federal Reserve all have been proven wrong. 

What we have today is another debt laden economy ready to pop once again.  The FIRE economy [Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate] has been driven to insane levels making it impossible for old school pensions or 401k type of plans to fashion any possible reasonable returns to fashion a retirement with any possible degree of certainty.  Insurance is suffering the same fate with interest rates so low [and zero projected stock returns] premiums have leaped locking out working class or lower middle class from insurance protection.  Real estate whether rental or purchasing is so high many Millennials [along with the newly minted Cyber generation] are locked out of household formation remaining living with their parents.  Add on criminal behavior of the medical industrial complex AND the student loan debacle you end up with a consumption and investment capital starved economy. 

Once again we’re coming to another reset moment when the debt is too great and the house of cards come tumbling down.  This is not just happening here in the States but world wide and has lowered the price of oil to reflect reduced world wide economic growth.  When the increase in debt stalls and then rolls over in decline we will once again be in recession.  Be prepared.
Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 06/1/19

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
68% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
32% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX
 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
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DYI

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