Why Gold?
“Gold, unlike all other commodities is a currency… and the major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry. It is not for anything other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper money that seems to be deteriorating.” -Alan Greenspan 2011
Gold is denominated in US dollars meaning it is quoted as the amount of dollars required to buy or sell one ounce of gold. The price of gold rises and falls with supply and demand for gold however a big determinant of its price is the value of the U.S. dollar.
Commonly, the U.S. dollar is quoted as an index or ratio. For example, the closely followed Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 96.00 and the dollar’s exchange rate versus the Euro is 1.12. These are valid price indicators, yet also misleading, as they solely describe the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies.
If another country debases their currency more aggressively than the U.S., the dollar may rise in price but has it truly gained value? The exchange quotes and pundits may say yes but the answer is clearly no.
The only proper measure of the value of a dollar is its purchasing power. In the 1950s, $1 bought a couple a full meal at McDonalds including a burger, fries and a shake. Not only that, but the couple walked away with change. Today a similar meal at McDonalds would run the couple well over $10.
This article should not be mistaken as advice to increase your allocation to gold to 100% and sell all financial assets. What it does imply is that in periods of economic strength, central bank credibility and dollar strength that the need to hold gold for protective purposes is minimal.
Conversely, in times, like today, when debasement of currency is the Fed’s last remaining policy tool of any significance, one should retain some protection. Holding gold is simply recognition that the Fed’s actions over the last 30 years have potentially severe consequences that pose threats to the value of most financial assets, the almighty dollar and ultimately your clients’ purchasing power.
Owning gold is in effect not only a short on the dollar and on the credibility of the Federal Reserve, but most importantly a one of a kind asset that protects wealth.DYI Comments: Precious metals mining companies are in a gut wrenching bear market. Prices from peak to trough are off on average 75%! A great time to buy. Please note the Dow/Gold Ratio is a bit pricey currently at 14 to 1.
DYI's averaging formula has our asset allocation at 15%. There remains profit it is no longer shooting fish in a barrel when gold(and mining companies) during 1998-2003 time period.
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