Don't be Fooled by Lower Oil & Gas Prices...The Hydrocarbon Cold War is Heating Up!

The Hydrocarbon Cold War

'Large' Chinese military fleet flies near Japan islands: media

Japan scrambled jets after 11 Chinese military planes flew near southern Japanese islands during what Beijing said was a drill to improve its long-range combat abilities, reports said Saturday. 

The planes -- eight bombers, two intelligence gathering planes and one early-warning aircraft -- flew near Miyako and Okinawa on Friday without violating Japan's airspace, the Japanese defence ministry said in a statement released on Friday.

A Chinese air force spokesman said several types of planes, including H-6K bombers, were involved in Friday's drill over the western Pacific, China's Xinhua news agency reported.

 

DYI Comments:  China is pressing its new found economic might with a built up of their military to expand their presence in the Yellow Sea, Sea of Japan, East and South China Sea. Expanding their footholds for influence/intimidation of minor countries in order to extract their natural resources especially oil and gas.  The Spratly Island chain of known oil & gas reserves is now hotly contested by Vietnam, Philippines, and China.  Of course anyone looking at a map would find it preposterous China having any claims.  Hence China's built up of military forces.

The U.S. response is the Asian pivot from Europe.  However it has been delayed by the reemergence of Russia and their pivot to Asia(China) with their pipeline projects supplying oil & gas.

 
To understand the U.S. domestically and internationally is our State Departments five primary goals. These are stated in George Friedman's book The Next 100 Years (pages 40-46).

1.)  The complete domination of North America by the United States Army.
2.)  The elimination of any threat to the U.S. by any power in the western hemisphere.
3.)  Complete control of the maritime approaches to the U.S. by the Navy in order to preclude any possibility of invasion.
4.)  The complete domination of the world's oceans to further secure U.S. physical safety and guarantee control over the international trading system.
5.)  The prevention of any other nation from challenging U.S. global naval power.

Where does the war on terror fit into matrix's?  It doesn't.  The war on terror has been a side show from day one, as long as they don't obtain weapons of mass destruction(biological, chemical, nuclear).  Don't get me wrong our government has placed large resources to insure our safety.  Some have been effective and others have been outrageous amount of wasted money.  To repeat; the war on terror is a side show.

Goal number five is where we are today.  In order to prevent any nation from challenging U.S. global naval power has embark upon breaking up our two largest international competitors: Russia and China.  Russia has two principal ports with access to the Atlantic Ocean.  The first is ST.

Petersburg access to the Atlantic via the Baltic Sea.  The U.S. is very, very good friends with Denmark as Zealand Island is a major choke point for all naval transports embarking to and from the Atlantic.  No Russian ship merchant marine or naval ship only proceeds by U.S./Danish permission.

The second principal access to the Atlantic Ocean is far more convoluted for Russia, the Black Sea through the Bosporus Straight controlled by Russia's mortal enemy Turkey, into the Sea of Marmara and through the long narrow channel of Dardanelles, into the Aegean Sea, only to make to the Mediterranean Sea.

If Russian naval ships want to leave the Mediterranean it is through two more choke points, the Suez canal or past British Gibraltar in southern Spain.  Gibraltar is not as militarized as it once was however if the Russian were to have easier access to the Med that would change quickly with English and American support.

The Russians have two secondary ports that are on top of the world.  Murmansk on the Barents Sea and Arkhangel'sk by the White Sea that empties into the Barents Sea as well.  The costs to develop these ports is horrendous as these cities are far away from the industrial areas of Russia thereby everything needs to be ship in by rail or motor transport.  The winters are long and brutal for Arkhangel'sk and beyond imagination for Murmansk shortening the construction season.  The Barents Sea is noted for its fierce storms sinking more ships there than many naval battles.  All and all even for Russians a most horrific place in the world for surface ships.  Russian submarines have done reasonably well porting in Arkhangel'sk but even during the height of the cold war the logistics/costs were simply too overwhelming to build the amount of subs needed to project power in this harsh climate.

That leaves Russia's access to the Pacific their principal port of Vladivostok located on the Sea of Japan.  This city is Russia's Seattle Washington as far as they are concerned.  The latitude is closer to Portland Oregon making it very livable; warm water all year around port; and a thorn in the backside of U.S. Naval power(at least in the Pacific).

 

Russia suffered for the longest time a logistics problem of Vladivostok being extremely far away from their industrial centers but with the rise of China those logistics lines have been shortened.  Not only by traditional rail transport, heavy lift capabilities by ship from many of the industrial centers of China.  Russia pays for these basic needs through their oil and gas sales to China.  This is Russia's pivot to Asia.  The only negative is tactical, Russian ships are hemmed in by Japanese and South Korean land based air units and naval power supported by the ever present U.S. flotilla stationed in Japan. Nevertheless, Vladivostok continues to this day a thorn in the U.S. Navy's backside.

Since the end of the cold war and the fall of the Soviet Union the U.S. has followed a plan of expanding NATO along with admission or integration into the European Union.  As we added military bases in those countries Russia is surrounded.

As Europe pushed for the Ukraine to enter the trade agreements with the EU along with the possibility of becoming a NATO member Russia reacted.  The Russian hierarchy easily saw the trap door being closed on the Russian Caucasus' brought under the sphere of Turkey/U.S./NATO/EU trade agreements(along with Azerbaijan oil/gas).

   If this trap door was to close NATO/U.S./EU the distance to Volgograd a principal city of Russia to the Ukraine border town of Luhansk is 461 kilometers or 286 miles. This conjures up to the same basic degree as our Cuban missile crises as the Soviet placed conventional/nuclear missiles on that island nation only miles away from Florida.  Unacceptable to the U.S. and that possibility unacceptable to the Russians.

   The biggest reason that NATO/U.S./EU is attempting to close the trap door the Russian Black Sea Fleet would be eliminated.  This is why Putin has made a grab for the Ukrainian Crimean peninsula with its major port facilities at Sevastopol.  Plus making a play for the rest of the Ukraine for their port facilities at Odesa.

The U.S./NATO/EU continue in their attempt to strip away allies of Russia.  Putin along with the Russian hierarchy are projecting power and attempting maintain their ally Syria.  The U.S. wants a regime change to a pro U.S./NATO/EU country further eroding Russia which would only encourage Turkey/U.S./NATO/EU into the Caucasus.

Breaking Up Russia to Control China 

By having Russia expend vast resources in manpower/military equipment/and large amounts of money exhausting themselves to where the vastly underpopulated east breaks away from Russia.  The attempt to put in a pro U.S. controlled government(s) from the Ural Mountains eastward.

  

By the U.S. controlling the oil/gas pipelines into China they will have to do our bidding or go to war.

Unfortunately war drums are already beating as China expands in her need of oil and gas to continue propelling their economy forward.  Just as Russia plays the hydrocarbon cold war card with Europe, the U.S. is positioning to play the same game by controlling Russia's far eastern regions with China.

The U.S. and her allies are in the process of supplying LNG (liquefied natural gas) into the Netherlands port of Rotterdam reducing Russia's hold(and hard currency) over natural gas sales to Europe.

Currently Russia is ahead by supplying Europe and China with oil/gas/other natural resources but the huge geopolitical game is afoot.  Here is how the U.S./NATO/EU game plan is evolving.

1.)  Strip away allies of Russia with pro western governments supportive of U.S./NATO/EU institutions.
2.)  Expand NATO whenever possible.  Southern high valued countries Ukraine & Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia.  Northern independents Sweden and Finland plus southern independents Austria and Switzerland(not a chance).  Belarus and Serbia are staunch allies of Russia, a long shot at best.  

3.)  Deprive Russia of hard currency sales of natural gas to Europe by exporting LNG to Rotterdam.
4.)  Manipulate lower prices for oil & gas whenever possible depriving Russia hard currency and propelling western economies forward. 
5.)  Engage Russia into proxy wars exhausting herself of men, material, and financially with armies and land based air units.  Thus depriving men, material, and monies for her navy.
6.)  If successful remaining portion of Russia incorporated into U.S./NATO/EU institutions.
7.)  Aggressively pivot to Asia.
8.)  Put into place steps to breakup China
9.)  Reduce China's naval presence to a coast guard level.

DYI