Hard Choice for Kazakhstan as Russia-Turkey Spat Deepens

Together with the Russian-Western tensions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea last year, the latest spat between Moscow and Ankara is a challenge for Kazakhstan. The Central Asian country is a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which also includes Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, and of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In January–September 2015, Russian-Kazakhstani trade turnover amounted to more than $11.1 billion, thus making Russia Kazakhstan’s largest trade partner, despite being stricken by a recession due to the low price of oil. China is in second place, with $8.3 billion. This figure actually represents a contraction from $13.3 billion the year before, largely due to China’s reduced demand for Kazakhstan’s oil, steel, copper, and other commodities. 

Yet, Turkey is far more important for the Nazarbayev administration from a geopolitical perspective. Ankara was actually the first capital to recognize Kazakhstan’s independence and had been particularly proactive in fostering closer ties to Central Asia since the early 1990s. Today, Turkey is a key pillar of Nazarbayev’s multi-vector foreign policy, alongside the Russia-focused Eurasian integration, strategic partnerships with China and the West, and overtures to new frontiers such as the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia. The cordial relationship between Nazarbayev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who was previously prime minister, in 2003–2014, resulted in 2009 in the creation of the so-called Turkic Council of which Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan are the two other members. 

Furthermore, Kazakhstan had, until recently, supported a free trade zone between Turkey and the EEU. 

 While the Kazakhstani authorities are struggling to formulate a coherent message that refrains from offending either side, the local expert community deems it crucial for Astana to maintain its neutrality. Thus, Almaty-based political scientist Dossym Satpayev has told Azerbaijani media that it is important not to “become a side to the argument.” Both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have already expressed an interest in carrying out mediation—so far to no avail (Vz.ru, December 2; Haqqin.az, November 27). It goes without saying that Astana stands to lose from the Russian-Turkish quarrel. However the situation unfolds, Kazakhstan’s government is most likely to stick to the tenets of its multi-vector foreign policy. In the worst-case scenario, which is practically impossible absent a real war, Ankara could close the Turkish Straits to Russian vessels going from the Black Sea out to the Mediterranean. This is the way most Kazakh oil is exported to the world market—so for Nazarbayev and his government, peace is non-negotiable.

DYI Comments:  The biggest thrust of this article is the center piece for Kazakhstan to move into a free trade zone with Turkey AND the EEU(European Economic Union). If that step were to be achieved the next logical step would be inclusion with NATO.  Russia is on the defensive despite their move into the Crimean peninsula. The U.S. led U.K./NATO/EU coalition attempt to surround and break apart Russia is very much in play.  The spoils will be the natural resources especially those east of the Ural Mountains.

DYI