AP EXPLAINS: Montenegro's Bid to Defy Russia, Join NATO
NATO is seeking to expand for the first time after six years by inviting the tiny Balkan nation of Montenegro to join the alliance. The move on Wednesday angers Russia, which has strong historic, political and cultural influence in Montenegro and is threatening economic and political retaliation. Here's a brief explanation of how global tensions play out in Montenegro, where the people remain deeply split over whether to join the Western military alliance that bombed the country in 1999.
THE BLACK MOUNTAIN ON THE SEA
Montenegro — which means "Black Mountain" — is a small country in southeast Europe. It is a land of stunning natural beauty, squeezed between the Adriatic Sea and towering mountains, laced with green valleys and rushing rivers. The land area is nearly 14,000 square kilometers (5,300 square miles). Just over 600,000 people live in Montenegro, mostly in the capital Podgorica and along the coast. The economy is weak, relying largely on tourism.
A MOSTLY CHRISTIAN NATION WITH A COMPLEX HISTORY
About 70 percent Montenegrins are Orthodox Christians, which partly explains strong links to Russia, also a predominantly Orthodox Christian country. Until recent history, Montenegro had been a faithful ally of Russia in the Balkans, so much so that it is said to have declared a war on Japan in 1904 just to support Russia in its clash with Japan. Montenegro was also a rare country in the region to have retained a level of autonomy during centuries-long Turkish Ottoman rule.
Montenegro has a small army of just some 2,000 soldiers, but it is strategically located on the Adriatic sea, between NATO members Croatia and Albania,
having deep-water navy bases that could be used for big navy ships and submarines.
Bringing in Montenegro to the NATO sphere further diminishes Russia's influence in southeast Europe, and blocks it from the so-called "warm seas" in Europe.
The Russians are not so much worried about the strategic military loss, but more about their diminishing political influence on the region.
Montenegrins are almost equally divided over joining NATO. Pro-Russian opposition parties are already demanding a referendum before the entry is formalized next year — mirroring demands by Russian officials. This could lead to tensions after recent anti-NATO protests in the capital Podgorica which have turned violent. Still, pro-Western Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic insists Montenegro's invitation is good news for the country and regional stability. Montenegrin analysts believe Russia will try to finance the Montenegrin opposition ahead of the next general election scheduled for the next year, to try to unseat Djukanovic's government before Montenegro formally becomes a NATO member. The latest opinion poll conducted by the local Damar agency said that 47 percent of Montenegrins are in favor of the NATO bid, some 39 percent are against while 14 percent are undecided. The poll has a two percent margin of error.
DYI Comments: If Montenegro is confirmed into NATO it will be a small victory for U.S./NATO/EU and a huge loss of status for Russia plus denying them any possibility of a naval base in the Adriatic Sea. No doubt Russia will throw resources to the opposition party just as the U.S./NATO/EU alliance will back Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic. This invitation into NATO has most likely be into play for sometime, however, with Putin Russian hierarchy conducting bombing missions supporting Assad in Syria, the time table may have been advanced.
The U.S. continues in its march to isolate Russia by stripping away her allies and bring them within the sphere of the U.S./NATO/EU alliance and institutions. The proximity of Montenegro to Russia from the Black Sea is closer than one would suspect.
The U.S. had its domino theory of communism during the first Cold War now in its second Cold War the Russian now have their domino theory working as well. Is domino Serbia the next to fall? If that were to happen it would be a major blow to Russian prestige ending any influence (to a significant degree) in the Balkans. Further limiting Russia's naval access to the Mediterranean and furthering the long term strategic U.S./NATO/EU goal of eliminating Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
Who Doesn't Love Beach Front Property?
DYI 
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