If Germany is Unable to Bail Out Europe...Who Will?

German birth rate grows, but population shrinks

Aug 21 Germany's birth rate rose last year to its highest level in 12 years, helped by years of economic growth and government support, but not enough to offset the death rate, and its overall population continued to decline.

Fertility Rate 

Country	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014

Germany

1.38

1.38

1.39

1.37

1.38

1.39

1.39

1.40

1.41

1.41

1.42

1.41

1.41

1.42

1.43

Definition of Total fertility rate: This entry gives a figure for the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age. 

The total fertility rate (TFR) is a more direct measure of the level of fertility than the crude birth rate, since it refers to births per woman. This indicator shows the potential for population change in the country. 

A rate of two children per woman is considered the replacement rate for a population, resulting in relative stability in terms of total numbers. Rates above two children indicate populations growing in size and whose median age is declining. Higher rates may also indicate difficulties for families, in some situations, to feed and educate their children and for women to enter the labor force. Rates below two children indicate populations decreasing in size and growing older.  

Global fertility rates are in general decline and this trend is most pronounced in industrialized countries, especially Western Europe, where populations are projected to decline dramatically over the next 50 years.

DYI Comments: Germany's fertility rate has been under replacement since 1971 and at the low level as seen by the chart above since 1975.  When the 2015 numbers come in Germany's fertility rate will have increased, at best, in the 1.5 range which continues to be way below replacement.  Germany's population will continue to decline.  This does not bode well for the EU as Germany is the money maker for central Europe.  This population bust has reduced significantly Germany's youthfulness that are one of the building blocks for a dynamic economy for Corporate, government, and entrepreneurs. Also heavier tax loads is placed on those still working to support Germany's much larger older population.  And lastly there is simply less Germans(pop. in decline) to tax.  

These demographic economic pressures and a possible world wide recession will be another test for the EU.  DYI's opinion that unless the EU forms a federalized system (centralized taxation) which I believe is a slim possibility, then the EU in its present condition will fly apart.  Most likely ten years from now the Euro currency will be gone replaced by each country's original moneys.  The trade agreements will most likely endure, along with the open borders concept (EU citizens only) will most likely stand as well.  This will end central Europe's dream of a currency that will compete with the U.S. Dollar.

DYI