Energy
Desperation
Trump admin approves oil company’s Arctic drilling plan
The Mighty U.S. Shale Oil Industry To Lose Another $20 Billion In 2017
DYI: This is
nothing more than acts of desperation to keep the petrol dollar alive and
produce more net energy. Make no mistake
there hasn’t been a major game changing oil or gas discovery since Alaska and
the North Sea in the 1970’s. Those two discoveries were not fully developed until
the 1990’s with a bottom price in December of 1998 inflation corrected (2015
dollars) at $12.45 per barrel. Since
then oil and gas prices moved into a secular bull market with cyclical peaks
and valleys thrown in only to confuse the fact that as a world is in a long
term decline in oil and gas supplies.
Think the U.S. is leaving Iraq anytime soon? Not a chance.
Oil Indicator
7/1/17
Updated Monthly
Oil Prices:
07/01/12....$99.25
07/01/17....$50.26
Down 49%(rounded)
(oil prices approximately one year earlier due to weekends & holidays)
ANS West Coast prices
OIL INDICATOR: Positive Oil indicator will remain positive until it's rise is greater than 75% from five years earlier.
Oil prices are well known for their volatility in the short term, longer term due to dwindling reserves energy prices are in a secular bull market. Technologies such as fracking will extend the life of oil fields but major new discoveries arrive at a snails pace far slower than the world's growth.
As long as prices rise in a slow and orderly pace our economy can adjust to those changes, however if prices spike (international tensions, war etc.) high energy costs behave as a massive deflationary tax. This will send our economy tumbling down and very possibly the U.S. stock market.
If oil prices rise greater than 75% from five years earlier, investors at that time should shift their portfolio geared towards deflationary times. This would be an oil indicator as negative.
If oil prices rise from five years earlier less than 10% or drop then the inflationary play is in effect; a positive for economic growth along with possible higher stock prices.
Where to find five year earlier oil prices? Alaska Department of Revenue
Oil indicator positive
20% REIT's
20% Energy
20% P.M.'s
40% Small Caps
0% Lt. Gov't Bonds
Oil indicator negative
5% REIT's
10% Energy
10% P.M's
10% Small Caps
65% Lt. Gov't Bonds
Vanguard Funds
REIT's
REIT Index Admiral VGSLX
Energy
Energy Fund VGENX
Precious Metals (P.M.'s)
Precious Metals and Mining Fund VGPMX
Small Caps
Small Cap Value Index Admiral VSIAX
Long Term Government Bonds
Long-Term Government Bond Index Admiral VLGSX
7/1/17
Updated Monthly
Oil Prices: Updated Monthly
07/01/12....$99.25
07/01/17....$50.26
Down 49%(rounded)
(oil prices approximately one year earlier due to weekends & holidays)
ANS West Coast prices
Down 49%(rounded)
(oil prices approximately one year earlier due to weekends & holidays)
ANS West Coast prices
OIL INDICATOR: Positive Oil indicator will remain positive until it's rise is greater than 75% from five years earlier.
Oil prices are well known for their volatility in the short term, longer term due to dwindling reserves energy prices are in a secular bull market. Technologies such as fracking will extend the life of oil fields but major new discoveries arrive at a snails pace far slower than the world's growth.
As long as prices rise in a slow and orderly pace our economy can adjust to those changes, however if prices spike (international tensions, war etc.) high energy costs behave as a massive deflationary tax. This will send our economy tumbling down and very possibly the U.S. stock market.
If oil prices rise greater than 75% from five years earlier, investors at that time should shift their portfolio geared towards deflationary times. This would be an oil indicator as negative.
If oil prices rise from five years earlier less than 10% or drop then the inflationary play is in effect; a positive for economic growth along with possible higher stock prices.
Where to find five year earlier oil prices? Alaska Department of Revenue
Oil indicator positive
20% REIT's
20% Energy
20% P.M.'s
40% Small Caps
0% Lt. Gov't Bonds
Oil indicator negative
5% REIT's
10% Energy
10% P.M's
10% Small Caps
65% Lt. Gov't Bonds
Vanguard Funds
REIT's
REIT Index Admiral VGSLX
Energy
Energy Fund VGENX
Precious Metals (P.M.'s)
Precious Metals and Mining Fund VGPMX
Small Caps
Small Cap Value Index Admiral VSIAX
Long Term Government Bonds
Long-Term Government Bond Index Admiral VLGSX
Disclaimer
This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
DYI
This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
DYI
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