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Peak Crazy Time & Yield Shock Coming – David Stockman
Former Reagan White House Budget Director David Stockman says look out for the “perfect storm” coming our way. Stockman explains, “I think we are in peak crazy time, really, to launch an attack against Syria based on the flimsy evidence to date, and the likelihood it was another false flag operation. . . .
Trump declared victory two weeks ago in Syria and said we are coming home, which is exactly the right thing to do and say. Then, all of a sudden, you have a gas attack and the clamor from the war party to do something, respond and bomb Assad yet one more time, even though those air bases and military bases are populated with Russian military. . . .
So, let me summarize. You have a hot war against Russia and the Iranians, which we have no business starting. You have a trade war brewing, I am afraid will get out of control with China, which is totally unnecessary. You have a fiscal calamity brewing right before your eyes, and you have a Fed populated by Keynesians, who think they miraculously cured the economy and everything is fixed.
They [Fed's] are finally going to do what they should have done a long time ago and that is normalize interest rates. . . . The problem is they have waited so long . . . that by October, they will be shrinking their balance sheet by $50 billion a month . . . while the Treasury is attempting to sell $1.2 trillion a year of new debt. . . . You are going to have, and I am quite certain of it, you are going to have a yield shock like the world has not seen in a long time. . . .
When yields hit 4%, the proverbial brown stuff is going to hit the fan.
It is the proverbial perfect storm of upset, upheaval and really insane kind of developments. Finally, after kicking the can all these years, it is finally going to come together, and I don’t see what is really going to slow it down.”
How did the world get into record debt and trade wars? Stockman says,
“The point is a free market based on honest money would never produce this kind of imbalance.
Under the old system, when you start to run trade deficits this big . . . there would have been quick adjustment because we would have lost reserves. Pre-1914, that was gold.
When you lost financial reserves, gold, that caused the banking system to tighten up and caused interest rates to rise, credit to be curtailed, and the economy slowed down. Prices adjusted and slowly imports declined and exports recovered.
We don’t have that anymore. We basically have a bad money system, which allows these kinds of trade imbalances to grow.”
What Stockman sees is deflation, depression and financial Armageddon.
Stockman says, “In the bond market, I don’t know any other way to describe it. . . It’s uncharted territory, and we have never been here before. . . . The house of cards is so shaky and so fragile right now that there is the risk of the proverbial black swan event. We don’t see something coming. It shocks the system. It triggers a panic, and the panic soon envelops itself and descends into some sort of doom loop. That could very easily happen.”
Stockman says, “Gold and silver are the only safe investments to have . . . you can’t be safe in the stock market, and you can’t be safe in the bond market.”
DYI: David
Stockman’s line of thinking is right along with DYI’s except when it comes to
long term Treasuries they will soar in value as compared to high grade
corporate bonds [they will sag in value and have ratings drops] and especially high
yield junk bonds bombs will be decimated.
It is very possible that we will see Treasury
securities go to negative rates as far out as 5 years in maturity. It is also possible though less so the 10
year bell weather T-bond may go negative as well.
No doubt there are huge imbalances in our
economy that will need to be worked off.
Will it come as the big shock as illustrated by our 1930’s Great
Depression or will it be the Japanese version of a 20 year bear market for
stocks [if bottomed in 2009?]. Who knows
for sure? Valuations are insane for
stocks with long term bond yields way below their historical average making
those two a very poor compounding tool.
Precious metals [gold] are slightly below fair value making for a modest
investment at 29% of our model portfolio along with a small 4% in long term
bonds and the remainder 67% in cash.
Updated Monthly
AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 4/1/18
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
DYI
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