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The Everything Bubble---Waiting For The Pin

We essay the razor sharp aspects of the pin below, but suffice it to say here that the cyclical calendar has just plain run out of time. It is way, way too late in the cycle at 105 months of age to be "pricing-in" anything except the end of the party. And this bubblicious party has embodied the most spectacular central-bank fueled mania yet---meaning that the morning after is going to bring a truly hellacious hangover. 

Among the many sharp edges of the pin are these: 

1. the virtual certainly of a recession within the next two years and a typical 30%-50% drop in earnings;

1.  the epochal Fed pivot to QT (with other major central banks to follow) and the consequent massive drainage of cash from the bond pits;

1.  the mad man in the Oval Office and (among other follies) his swell new Trade War, which absolutely will get out of hand globally;

1.  the impending "yield shock" which will thunder through the financial markets when Federal borrowing hits $1.2 trillion in the coming year--on the way to $2 trillion+ annual deficits as far as the eye can see;

1. a deeply impaired underlying main street economy which is groaning under $68 trillion of public and private debt and a reverse robin hood financial regime that has left 80% of the population on welfare or struggling to make ends meet on earnings that barely keep up with inflation; and

1. the swaying giant red elephant in the global economic room---meaning China's historically unprecedented and freakish explosion of debt, manic building, monumental speculation, systematic lying and fraud and serpentine centralized command-and-control that is destined to end in a spectacular implosion.

What it boils down to is this: The top 1% and 10% of the population, which own 40% and 80% of the financial assets, respectively, are riding high. But, alas, that is way too high for the underlying level and quality of income and the 90% of the population on which they sit. 

So the Great Pin is surely coming----and it may be wielding torches and pitchforks when it arrives.

 DYI