Wednesday, July 31, 2019

The
Race to Debase

Gold Surges To £1,175/oz, Near Record £1,179/oz In GBP, 

As Sterling Falls Sharply

Gold has gained in all currencies today but especially in the embattled British pound. It is not just the ‘no deal’ Brexit that is leading to sharp falls in the pound. Trade wars, falling interest rates in the UK and globally, the slowing London and UK property market and the slowing UK and global economy are all contributing to the fall in sterling. 
True UK government debt exceeds £5 trillion as pension liabilities are not counted in the official numbers. 
Total UK debt (government, private, business & bank debt) as a percent of GDP is over 500% which in itself creates the risk of a currency crisis.
DYI:  At 500% of England’s GDP is debt it is bake into the cake a currency crises will occur.  The only question is when and you can bet it will be sooner than later.  For those with a bit of speculative blood you may want to short the British Pound.
DYI

Tuesday, July 30, 2019


Related image

Michael Hudson: 

The Coming Savings Writedowns

As President Obama showed, banks and bondholders can be bailed out by new Federal Reserve money creation. That is what the $4.6 trillion in Quantitative Easing since 2008 was all about. The Fed has spent the last few years supporting stock market prices (and holding down gold prices) by manipulating the forward option markets
DYI: Trump administration continues gold price suppression.
But this artificial life support to keep the debt overhead afloat is nearing the reality of the debt wall. The European Central Bank has almost run out of available euro-bonds to buy. The new fallback position to keep the increasingly zombified U.S. and Eurozone financial markets afloat is to experiment with negative interest rates.
DYI: Though not part of DYI’s model portfolio as long term bonds have blasted past their historical low yields.  However to be honest with my readers I do hold for my speculative monies in long term U.S. Treasuries in anticipation of lower if not negative rates!
Governments have long followed a basic guideline when faced with a need to devalue their currencies (for instance, as the dollar was devalued against gold in 1933). Nothing is worse for a politician or central banker than to be overly shy when it comes to devaluation. The motto is, “Always depreciate to access.” That means at least 25 percent, often a third when a basic structural adjustment is needed.
DYI: Depreciation will be over many years in an attempt to stretch out the pain that our citizens will have to bear.  Many of our countrymen have figured this out which is why the U.S. Mint regularly runs out of U.S. Gold and Silver Eagles.  These well informed families are prepared for years of elevated inflation.  Check into the Chapwood Index inflation (depending on personal cost) is running from 7% to 11%.
To prevent this rising indebtedness from tearing their realms apart, rulers started their first full year on the throne by clearing away the overhang of arrears that had been accruing on personal and agrarian debts. The aim was to restore an idealized “mother condition” in which bondservants were liberated, able to start with a Clean Slate with their self-support land returned to them, in balance with regard to their income and outgo.
An analogy would be the idyllic condition that the U.S. economy would achieve if we could restore the financial situation that existed in 1945. The end of World War II left an economy in which most families were almost debt-free. Families and businesses and were rife with cash, as there had not been much opportunity to spend during the wartime years, and the Great Depression had wiped out substantial debts. Returning soldiers were able to start families and buy homes by committing to pay only 25 percent of their income for 30 years. This era was as close as the United States came to a Clean Slate. Today it seems an unrecoverable golden age – as the ancient Near East seemed to be to debt-wracked imperial Rome.
Fast forward to today: Indebted students graduate with an obligation to pay so much education debt that they cannot qualify for mortgages to buy homes of their own. Marriage rates are down, U.S. home ownership is plunging, and rents are rising. Automobile debt also has soared, leading to rising default rates second only to student debt defaults. The overhang of junk-mortgage debts that crashed the economy in 2008 remains on the books; families who managed to survive the ten million foreclosures under the Obama bailout of Wall Street remain heavily indebted. (His constituency turned out to be his Donor Class, not the junk-mortgage victims among his voters. He characterized them as “the mob with pitchforks” to the Banksters he invited to the White House to celebrate his bailout.)
This QE policy has made financial engineering much more enriching than industrial engineering. But it has painted the U.S. and European economies into a corner. At some points interest rates will inevitably begin to rise back up. Some countries will have to increase rates in order to borrow to stabilize their exchange rates when their balance of trade and payments falls into deficit.
Other countries will simply see that the game is over and will give up the pretense that the personal, corporate and public-sector debt overhead can be paid.
That ability is shrinking much more than at any time since the 1920’s, which gave way to the Great Depression despite the many debt writedowns of 1931-32. The exponential mathematics of compound interest have created more and more claims on personal income and corporate cash flow, leaving less and less to be spent on goods and services.
That ability is shrinking much more than at any time since the 1920’s, which gave way to the Great Depression despite the many debt writedowns of 1931-32. The exponential mathematics of compound interest have created more and more claims on personal income and corporate cash flow, leaving less and less to be spent on goods and services.
That ability is shrinking much more than at any time since the 1920’s, which gave way to the Great Depression despite the many debt writedowns of 1931-32. The exponential mathematics of compound interest have created more and more claims on personal income and corporate cash flow, leaving less and less to be spent on goods and services.
Until a debt write downs occurs, storefronts will continue to close, arrears will mount, students will continue to postpone marriage and family formation, high-risk bonds will begin to give way and default.
DYI:  Take a look below the U.S. fertility rate that is now decisively below replacement (2.1).  This fertility rate does include immigrants.  Even they have run into the wall of excessive and impossible costs thus either limiting or postponing having children.  If continued below replacement within a couple of decades the U.S. population will begin declining as has happened in Japan.

Country20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420162017
United States2.062.062.072.072.072.082.092.092.12.052.062.062.062.062.011.871.87

If there was an easy and constructive way to short junk bonds I would do so but alas unless Wall Street creates a short product to buy I’m out of luck.

 Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 07/1/19

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
68% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
32% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
**Tocqueville Gold Fund TGLDX is a pure play 100% junior gold mining gold fund.  Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25% in precious metal equities the remainder are companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
   DYI

Monday, July 29, 2019

Government
Double Standards

The CIA's "Intelligence Authorization Act" Would Criminalize Whistleblowers And Reporters

A CIA-written Bill called the Intelligence Authorization Act (SB 3153) would criminalize whistleblowers and reporters.

Section 733 Sense of Congress on WikiLeaks:
"It is the sense of Congress that WikiLeaks and the senior leadership of WikiLeaks resemble a non-state hostile intelligence service often abetted by state actors and should be treated as such a service by the United States."
 Ron Paul clarifies the real reason for this bill:
"The measure is designed - in the CIA's own words - to prevent the kind of transparency that was provided by Wikileaks. It is a war on the free press!"
 House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff is once again 

putting the interests of the intelligence agencies in concealing their misdeeds [criminal activities] ahead of protecting the rights of ordinary Americans

 by criminalizing routine reporting by the press on national security issues and undermining congressional oversight in his Intelligence Authorization bill,” Daniel Schuman, policy director, of Demand Progress said.
DYI
Image result for pictures of gold bars

Gold and Silver Shine During the Race to Debase

The ECB remains trapped and once Draghi told the markets to be prepared for more easing measures into 2020, the euro briefly fell to a two-year low against the dollar. More than ten years of quantitative easing has utterly failed, so now Draghi is unable to return rates to normal levels without bankrupting the ECB and cause all 28 member states of the EU to pay more in interest. 
Next Wednesday the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver its first interest rate cut since 2008. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 100% probability that there will be a rate cut announced at the FOMC meeting on July 31st. The tool indicates there is a 76.5% probability that the rate cut will be 25-basis points (1/2%), and a 23.5% probability that the rate cut announced will be 50-basis points (1/4%).
DYI Quick Comment:  Time for all Presidents to gun the economy – lower interest rates – and rune for reelection.
With global growth slowing, central bankers around the world have taken a more dovish turn toward monetary stimulus which has been weakening their local currencies. The Fed is the most recent central bank (and the biggest) to telegraph lower interest rates and a weaker dollar. 
This is one of the main reasons that global traders have turned to gold as a new store of value during this “race to debase”.
The price of gold quoted in Aussie Dollars continues to make all-time highs and has been joined there recently by three other major currencies. Gold priced in the Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, and the British Pound are all trading at their respective all-time highs. The euro has been this year's weakest currency thus far, so the price of gold quoted in euros is doing even better, as the chart of gold always looks stronger when quoted in a weaker currency. 
The most important recent development in the precious metals complex is that gold is now trading as more than just a commodity. When global traders lose confidence in their currency, they often turn to gold as an alternative store of value. 
The main message is that gold has now become the world's strongest currency, as well as one of its strongest commodities.
For the first six weeks of this gold move, silver and many of the juniors have lagged gold and its miners considerably. Then last week, silver began running higher, significantly outperforming gold. But some of the junior development and earlier stage exploration stocks were still stuck in the mud until this week.
DYI Quick Comment:  DYI’s model portfolio [see below] is well positioned to take advantage of a precious metals move to the upside.
 Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 07/1/19

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
68% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
32% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
**Tocqueville Gold Fund TGLDX is a pure play 100% junior gold mining gold fund.  Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25% in precious metal equities the remainder are companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines. 

For those of you who buy bullion [I purchase the miners and bullion] concentrate on silver as the gold to silver ratio is with silver being the better choice [see chart below].
Image result for gold to silver ratio chart pictures
As of 7/29/19 Gold/Silver Ratio is:
87 to 1
Till Next Time
DYI

Friday, July 26, 2019

Bubble
News

Image result for blowing economic  bubbles

Russia's Total Gold Reserves Top $100 Billion As Central Bank Adds Another 600K Ounces In June

The Russian central bank bought another 597,000 ounces or 18.67 tonnes of gold in June, which put the total gold holdings at 2,208 tonnes as of July 1 ?r $100.3 billion, the Russian central bank said in the latest data release.

It's Not Just the News That's Fake--Everything's Fake

What do we mean when we say corporate media is fake? We mean it's a carefully crafted con, a set of narratives, cherry-picked data and heavily massaged statistics (the unemployment rate, etc.) designed to instill the reader's confidence in a narrative that serves the interests not of the citizenry but of a select few pillaging the citizenry. 
An essential component of the American ethos is: don't be a chump. Don't fall for the con. And if you do, it's your own fault. America in 1857 was a simmering stew of con artists, flim-flammers and grifters exploiting the naive, the trusting and the credulous, and that remains the case in 2019. 
Melville understood that we want to be conned: we want to believe the elixir will make our aches and pains go away, that the new face in politics will clear out the rot of corruption, that rising prices for everything means we're getting richer and so on.
Image result for sp500 chart macrotrends hugh smith pictures
Prosperity: fake: 
Trillions of dollars in new currency and credit have inflated assets to absurd levels, all to create the illusion that everything's getting better in every way, every day.

The $6 Trillion Pension Bailout Is Coming

While pension plans in the United States are guaranteed by a quasi-government agency called the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC), the reality is the PBGC is already nearly bust from taking over plans following the financial crisis. The PBGC is slated to run out of money in 2025. Moreover, its balance sheet is trivial compared to the multi-trillion dollar pension problem.
The proposal from Congress is simply to use more debt. According to the new legislation, whenever a pension plan runs out of funds, Congress wants the pension plan to borrow money in order to keep making payments to beneficiaries.
Think about that for a moment. 
Who would loan money to an insolvent pension fund?
Oh, that would be you, the taxpayer.
In other words, the Government wants you to bail out your own retirement fund.
Genius.
But it’s going to get far worse.

We Are Out Of Time

Currently, 75.4 million Baby Boomers in America—about 26% of the U.S. population—have reached or will reach retirement age between 2011 and 2030. And many of them are public-sector employees. In a 2015 study of public-sector organizations, nearly half of the responding organizations stated that they could lose 20% or more of their employees to retirement within the next five years. Local governments are particularly vulnerable: a full 37% of local-government employees were at least 50 years of age in 2015.
The vast majority of these individuals, when they retire, will depend on their pension (if they are in the 15% of the population that has one, and Social Security for a bulk of their living expenses in retirement.
The problem is that pension funds aren’t going to be able to keep their promises.
 Social Security, according to its own annual report, will run out of money in 15 years. Medicare has a massive underfunded problem as well.
But yet, the current Administration believes our outcome will be different.
Image result for kicking the can down the road pictures
More debt, and lack of any budgetary controls, will somehow lead to surging levels of economic growth despite no historical evidence of that being the case.
The reality is that the U.S. is now caught in the same liquidity trap as Japan. With the current economic recovery already pushing the long end of the economic cycle, the risk is rising that the next economic downturn is closer than not. The danger is that the Federal Reserve is now potentially trapped with an inability to use monetary policy tools to offset the next economic decline when it occurs. Combine this with:
  • A decline in savings rates to extremely low levels which depletes productive investments
  • An aging demographic that is top heavy and drawing on social benefits at an advancing rate.
  • A heavily indebted economy with debt/GDP ratios above 100%.
  • A decline in exports due to a weak global economic environment.
  • Slowing domestic economic growth rates.
  • An underemployed younger demographic.
  • An inelastic supply-demand curve
  • Weak industrial production
  • Dependence on productivity increases to offset reduced employment
The combined issues of debt, deflation, and demographics will continue to push the U.S. closer to the “point of no return.”
As the aging population grows becoming a net drag on “savings,” the dependency on the “social welfare net” will continue to expand. The “pension problem” is only the tip of the iceberg.
It’s an unsolvable problem.
It will happen.
It will devastate many Americans.
It is just a function of time.
DYI

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Revolution?

Our Ruling Elites Have No Idea How Much We Want to See Them All in Prison Jumpsuits

Let's posit that America will confront a Great Crisis in the next decade. This is the presumption of The Fourth Turning, a 4-generational cycle of 80 years that correlates rather neatly with the Great Crises of the past: 1781 (Revolutionary War, constitutional crisis); 1861 (Civil War) and 1941 (World War II, global war). 
While anything's possible, I propose a novel crisis unlike any in the past, a Moral Crisis in which the people challenge the power of the nation's corrupt Ruling Elites: not just elected officials, but the technocrats of the Deep State, the vested interests pillaging the nation, the New Overlords of Big Tech, the financier New Nobility, the Corporate Media and the self-serving state/corporate technocrat Nomenklatura who do the dirty work of the Ruling Elites. 
The possibility that moral outrage could spark a revolt seems improbable in such a distracted culture; even the most distracted, fragmented tribe of the peasantry eventually notices that they're not in the top 1%, or the top 0.1%, and that the Ruling Elites have overseen an unprecedented concentration of wealth and power into the hands of the few at the expense of the many. 
They also trust that the citizenry can be further fragmented, further distracted, and so they will continue to be invulnerable. Or worst case scenario, a few especially venal villains will need to be sacrificed, and then all will return to the bliss of feudal exploitation. 
But they may have misread the American citizenry, just as they've misread history.
DYI
At this rate, there will soon be no one left in the world to sanction! -- RF

U.S. sanctions Chinese company for buying Iranian oil

DYI
“America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.”
Abraham Lincoln 

J.P. Morgan: We Believe The Dollar Could Lose Its Status As World's Reserve Currency

The rise of the U.S. dollar 
It is commonly perceived that the U.S. dollar overtook the Great British Pound (GBP) as the world’s international reserve currency with the signing of the Bretton Woods Agreements after World War II. The reality is that sterling’s value was eroded for many decades prior to Bretton Woods. The dollar’s rise to international prominence was fueled by the establishment of the Federal Reserve System a little over a century ago and U.S. economic emergence after World War I. 
The Federal Reserve System aided in the establishment of more mature capital markets and a nationally coordinated monetary policy, two important pillars of reserve-currency countries. 
Being the world’s unit of account has given the United States what former French Finance Minister Valery d’Estaing called an “exorbitant privilege” by being able to purchase imports and issue debt in its own currency and run persistent deficits "seemingly" without consequence.
 “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”
Abraham Lincoln
Dollar’s declining role already under way? 
Recent data on currency reserve holdings among global central banks suggests this shift may already be under way.  As a share of overall central bank reserves, the USD’s role has been declining ever since the Great Recession (see chart). The most recent central bank reserve flow data also suggests that for the first time since the euro’s introduction in 1999, central banks simultaneously sold dollars and bought euros.
 Image result for USD share of central bank reserves, % chart pictures
Central banks across the globe are also adding to gold reserves at their strongest pace on record. 2018 saw the strongest demand for gold from central banks since 1971 and a rolling four-quarter sum of gold purchases is the strongest on record. To us, this makes sense: gold is a stable source of value with thousands of years of trust among humans supporting it.
Given the persistent—and rising—deficits in the United States (in both fiscal and trade), we believe the U.S. dollar could become vulnerable to a loss of value relative to a more diversified basket of currencies, including gold. As we scan client portfolios, we see that many of them have far more U.S. dollar exposure than we feel is prudent. At this stage of the economic cycle, we believe this exposure should be more diversified. In many cases, our recommendation would likely be to place a higher weighting on other G10 currencies, currencies in Asia and GOLD!
 The late MIT economist Rudiger Dornbusch: 
'Crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.'"

DYI:  The beginning of the beginning took place on August 15, 1971, when President Richard Nixon announced that the United States would no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed value, [$35 per ounce] thus completely abandoning the gold standard.    

The only way America would continue to have foreign nations fund our twin deficits – budget and trade imbalances – was/is through military intimidation.  Step out of line enough and your country will be attacked.  Libya and Iraq are prime examples who were in the process of recycling their excess oil money either into gold/silver [Libya] or in Euros [Iraq].  Both countries today are using U.S. dollars; also used as an example of intimidation by our State Department for other wayward nations.

Something happened on the way to the forum
(Intimidation doesn’t always work)

Countries such as Russia and China will no longer tolerate threats of intimidation; they have created their own non U.S. dollar platforms using gold and their own respective currencies.  Once established [with the bugs worked out] other countries within their sphere of influence will follow suit.  Countries such as Iran, Syria, along with India an up and coming nation with vast numbers of young people will eagerly move away from the dollar.
Related image
The beginning of the end has begun for the American dollar being the reserve currency for the world.  America will remain a massive country but her days are numbered where we can bend any nation on the planet to our will whether militarily or financially.  This will take place slowly at first but over time our monetary snow ball will gain speed till the day of crisis arrive at our feet in matter of seconds.  When that day comes it will most likely [history is my guide] event will be massive INFLATION.  The bills will come due marking the day when Congressmen will no longer be able to kick the can down the road postponing the day of reckoning.
DYI

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Bernie Baby
Please go and drop dead
(Of natural causes of course)
“So I don’t think the issue here isn’t that we can’t address this problem, i think we can, I think we know exactly what has to be done, and that is massive investment in sustainable energy, massive investments in energy efficiency, transform our transportation system, we know what has to be done, but the problem is the lack of political will,” he said. 
“We know that the scientific consensus is here, [BS Bernie; see the chart below...warming and cooling has been with the planet for thousands of years]  the solutions are right in front of us but...this is not just a scientific crisis, not just an environmental crisis, a climate crisis but this is a political crisis of inaction, and it’s going to take political will, political courage in order for us to treat us this issue with the urgency that the next generation needs in order for us to preserve our way of life and preserve our planet as much as we possibly can," she said.
 Image result for little ice age chart pictures

Climatologist 

Big cool down by 2020

“We should remember that the Earth’s coldest periods have usually followed excessive warmth. Such was the case when our planet moved from the Medieval Warm Period between 900 and 1300 A.D. to the sudden ‘Little Ice Age,’ which peaked in the 17th Century. Since 2,500 B.C., there have been at least 78 major climate changes worldwide, including two major changes in just the past 40 years.
DYI:  Bernie I know you are working for the elites of the world in order to empty the American treasury.  Bogus programs just so the elites will be able to steal American tax dollars.  You are nothing but an ageing flim flam man attempting to bamboozle the American public so please either shut up or go and drop dead – of course by natural causes.  Better yet go and get a REAL JOB.  WOW!  What a concept!


Remember Climategate???  What was exposed a vast array of international scientific fraud all to further the Global Warming bull crap.  When caught red handed these so called scientist destroyed their original source data.  They had no stomach for a REAL peer review highlighting their attempted scam.

What causes the climate to change??  Simple volcanoes and sun spot activity.  For sometime the planet has little of either – recently sun spot activity has tampered off – when volcanoes start erupting consistently and sun spot activity falls off climate cooling occurs.  And of course if the opposite occurs the planet will go on a warming trend.  Sorry Bernie it has nothing to do with man and his machines [or cow farts]; so go and crawl back under the rock from where you came and leave us Americans [and the world as well] ALONE!
DYI


Image result for gold to silver ratio chart pictures
As of 7/22/19 Gold Silver Ratio 
87 to 1

Silver Rallies to Its Highest in Over a Year, Plays ‘Catch Up’ to Gold’s Gains

Silver’s rise is likely more related to speculators moving in on what seemed to be cheap prices relative value to gold. We look at relative value by examining the ratio of gold prices to silver prices historically. The Gold Silver ratio had recently reached lofty heights near 100. That is to say you could buy 100 ounces of silver for the price of 1 ounce of gold. 
Looking back historically this ratio would have been in the 16 – 25:1 range. Since the 1970’s a range of 40-80:1 was the norm. Every time this ratio hit these highs it retraced as silver prices caught up with gold. Where gold led silver followed, rising twice as fast and sometimes falling even harder. Now we see history repeating itself yet again. 
Back of an envelope calculations: We see silver possibly hitting highs of $30 within 18 months if the following were to happen: 
1) Brexit fears manifest in a UK & EU recession: chances 75% 
2) Worried about stalling global growth, Central Banks unleash coordinated QE 4 and continue printing of money, driving rates even more negative globally: chances 75% 
3) Gold starts attracting speculative money pushing safe have bids up even higher to possibly circa $2,500: chances 70% 
4) The gold silver ratio reverts back to its 200 day moving average of 86:1. Taking silver to $30.
DYI
%
Gold/Silver
Allocation
07-24-19

Updated Monthly

100 – [100 x (Current GS – Avg. GS / 4)
_______________________________________

(Avg.GS x 2 – Avg. GS / 2)

Current Gold/Silver Ratio 86

Average Gold/silver Ratio 50

Allocation:    
Gold     2%
Silver  98%
Image result for gold to silver ratio chart pictures
Average Gold/Silver Ratio since 1900
50 to 1
Gold and silver bullion buyers and traders use the fluctuating Gold Silver Ratio to better determine which precious metal may be poised to outperform the other.

The essence of trading the gold-silver ratio is to switch holdings when the ratio swings to historically determined extremes. So:

When a trader possesses one ounce of gold and the ratio rises to an unprecedented 100, the trader would sell their single gold ounce for 100 ounces of silver.

When the ratio then contracted to an opposite historical extreme of 50, for example, the trader would then sell his or her 100 ounces for two ounces of gold.

In this manner, the trader would continue to accumulate quantities of metal seeking extreme ratio numbers to trade and maximize holdings.

Note that no dollar value is considered when making the trade; the relative value of the metal is considered unimportant.

DYI’s averaging formula is best used when accumulating bullion.  Simply buy up to the stated allocation only selling/buying when necessary [lessen capital gains taxes].  For those in the distribution stage [retirees] of life sells off gold or silver to bring back in line with the current allocation.
DYI