Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Recession
Within One Year?
Image result for mish chart pictures probability of u s recession twelve months ahead as predicted by treasury spread chart pictures
Image result for estimated recession probability for probit model chart pictures
DYI:  Since this economic recovery is now so long in the tooth [about 10 years] another recession becomes a valid probability.  Every month more and more data points into that direction.  However unless worldwide debt begins to fall like dominoes our upcoming recession will be mild compared to the massive downturn of 2009.  Bear in mind the U.S. stock market is also massively overvalued; a run of the mill, nothing to write home decline of 50% should be anticipated.     
DYI

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